Perspectives Pictet

No sign of a let-up in the US business cycle as job openings continue to rise.We particularly like job openings data as an indicator for a turning point in the US macroeconomic cycle, even though this series has not much history (data start in December 2000), and in spite of its long lag to release (we just had data for August, i.e. it is more than two months old now).Still, job openings did a rather good job of indicating an inflexion point right before the global financial crisis: the US...

Limited upside for the dollar against the yen, but significant downside will take time.While widening interest rate differentials are supportive of the US dollar against the yen, if rates rise too far and too fast, they can help the yen against the dollar, as recent financial market volatility has shown. In October, the Japanese yen appreciated by 1.9% against the dollar and outperformed all other major currencies.Coupled with extreme fundamental yen undervaluation, the potential for the...

Inflation is unlikely to be a constraint on central bank’s policy.The headline consumer price index (CPI) in China picked up slightly in September, rising by 2.5% year-over-year (y-o-y) compared with 2.3% in August, driven by higher food price and fuel prices. Excluding food and energy, core inflation in China actually eased to 1.7% y-o-y in September from 2.0% in August.Looking forward, we see some moderate upward pressure on Chinese headline inflation due to tariffs on US imports and...

[embedded content] Uncertainty is becoming the norm in our fast-changing world and business owners and investors are looking for answers in how to turn volatility into opportunity. A range of solutions were discussed in detail at the fifth edition of the Pictet Entrepreneur Summit, held in Geneva at the end of August. A key takeaway from this year’s event was put best by senior managing partner Nicolas Pictet, who said that established ideas about how business, trade and politics work are...

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.US equities declined roughly 7% over six days up to last Thursday. While the decline is in line with the median drawdown level since 2007, it was notable for its length, given the average drawdowns over the same time period lasted 40 days, rather than six. Most likely, investors were reacting to the higher risk environment created by rising bond yields. However, compared with February’s sell-off, there is less exuberance on the technical side....

Italy’s structural weakness explain higher level of concern around its deficit target.Each EU member state is currently preparing 2019 budget plans for formal submission to the European Commission (EC) before mid-October. Among them, France and Italy’s budget plans have been raising eyebrows. Why is the EC concerned about Italy’s proposed 2.4% GDP deficit target for 2019 and not France’s target of 2.8%? Is Italy being treated unfairly by its European partners and by markets? Italy and France...

While we await the effect of import tariffs, inflation has still not taken off in the US. The Fed is unlikely to be swayed from its current rate tightening routine.Core consumer-price index (CPI) inflation rose a modest 0.12% month on month (m-o-m) in September, again undershooting market expectations, and the year-on-year (y-o-y) print stayed unchanged at 2.2% –a relatively benign outcome given the flourishing US economy and the tight labour market.Core inflation (excluding energy and food...

Head of Asset Allocation & Macro Research and Chief Strategist with Pictet Wealth Management, Christophe Donay shares his thoughts on the perennial relationship between innovation and economic growth.When analysing the current economic regime and assessing the potential for a shift in that regime, it is vital to take innovation into account. Demographic trends and productivity gains are commonly identified as the two main drivers of real economic growth. And innovation is a critical...

Monetary policy drift to continue.Fed likely to keep tightening while buoyed by a solid domestic backdrop Looking at the Federal Reserve (Fed) from the other side of the Atlantic, the question is really to what extent the Fed can continue to ‘decouple’ its monetary policy from other main global central banks, including those in Europe.The three-month Treasury bill rate in the US is at c.2.2%, while a straight average of the corresponding rate in Germany (c.-0.6%) and the UK (c.0.7%) is...

The Italian government’s budget plans set it on a collision course with the European Commission. The road to some kind of agreement is likely to be long and bumpy.The Italian government has confirmed its deficit target at 2.4% of GDP for 2019. This represents significant slippage from a previous budget deficit target of 0.8% in 2019. The deficit target has been set at 2.1% for 2020 and 1.8% for 202. But it is not the headline deficit numbers that are a problem, but rather the details behind...