The upsurge in covid-19 cases will likely hurt global economic prospects in the current quarter. With a Democrat ‘blue wave’ failing materialise in the US elections, hopes of a substantial spending bill have faded and there is risk that US household incomes suffer as existing support measures fade. In the meantime, covid-19 infections continue surge in the US.
The Chinese recovery continues, supported by strong exports and solid improvement in fixed investment and consumption. We have revised up our Chinese GDP forecast for 2020 is to 2.1% from 1.8%, with our headline inflation forecast revised down slightly to 2.6% from 2.7%.
In Europe, after a better-than- expected rebound in Q3 GDP, new restrictions in the face a resurgence of the virus will