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Frank Shostak

Frank Shostak

Frank Shostak is an Associated Scholar of the Mises Institute. His consulting firm, Applied Austrian School Economics, provides in-depth assessments and reports of financial markets and global economies. He received his bachelor's degree from Hebrew University, master's degree from Witwatersrand University and PhD from Rands Afrikaanse University, and has taught at the University of Pretoria and the Graduate Business School at Witwatersrand University.

Articles by Frank Shostak

Government regulation of competitive firms creates monopolies

8 days ago

Monopolies are believed to undermine individuals’ well-being, including being the cause of large increases in the prices of goods and services. According to Jean Tirole, the 2014 Nobel winner in economics, monopolies undermine the efficient functioning of the market economy by influencing the prices and the quantity of products, making consumers worse off.
Thus, monopolies supposedly cause market conditions to deviate from the ideal state of “perfect competition.” Effective enforcement of government regulations, then, is needed to control monopolies. Tirole has devised methods to strengthen the regulation of industries dominated by a few large firms.
The ‘perfect competition’ model
In the world of perfect competition, the following features characterize a market:

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The Collapse of Real Savings Caused the Great Depression

14 days ago

What is the Mises Institute?

The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard. Non-political, non-partisan, and non-PC, we advocate a radical shift in the intellectual climate, away from statism and toward a private property order. We believe that our foundational ideas are of permanent value, and oppose all efforts at compromise, sellout, and amalgamation of these ideas with fashionable political, cultural, and social doctrines inimical to their spirit.

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Does Increasing the Money Supply also Increase Economic Growth?

June 18, 2024

What is the Mises Institute?

The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard. Non-political, non-partisan, and non-PC, we advocate a radical shift in the intellectual climate, away from statism and toward a private property order. We believe that our foundational ideas are of permanent value, and oppose all efforts at compromise, sellout, and amalgamation of these ideas with fashionable political, cultural, and social doctrines inimical to their spirit.

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What Causes Stagflation?

June 10, 2024

In the late 1960s Edmund Phelps and Milton Friedman challenged the popular view that there can be a sustainable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. In fact, over time, according to PF, loose central bank policies set the platform for lower economic growth and a higher rate of inflation, or stagflation.PF’s Explanation of StagflationStarting from a situation of equality between the current and the expected rate of inflation, the central bank decides to boost the rate of economic growth by raising the growth rate of money supply. As a result, a greater supply of money enters the economy and each individual now has more money at his disposal.Because of this increase, every individual believes he has become wealthier. This raises the demand for goods and

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Does Increasing the Money Supply also Increase Economic Growth?

June 3, 2024

Many economic commentators believe increasing the quantity of money can revive an economy. This is based on the view that with more money in their pockets, people will spend more and others follow suit, as they hold that money is a mere means of payments.Money, however, is not the means of payments but rather a medium of exchange. It only enables one producer to exchange his product for the product of another producer. According to Murray Rothbard, “Money, per se, cannot be consumed and cannot be used directly as a producers’ good in the productive process. Money per se is therefore unproductive; it is dead stock and produces nothing.” The means of payments are always goods and services, which pay for other goods and services. Money simply facilitates these

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Can Data by Itself Inform Us about the Real World?

May 27, 2024

In order to make the data “talk,” economists utilize a range of statistical methods that vary from highly complex models to a simple display of historical data. It is generally believed that one can organize historical data through quantitative methods into a useful body of information, which in turn can serve as the basis for assessing the economy.Now, it has been observed that declines in the unemployment rate are associated with a general rise in the prices of goods and services. Should we then conclude that decreases in the unemployment rate trigger price inflation? To confuse the issue further, it has also been observed that price inflation is well-correlated with changes in money supply.What are we to make out of all this? How are we to decide which is the

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Lending without Saving Brings Recession and Poverty

May 23, 2024

What is the Mises Institute?

The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard. Non-political, non-partisan, and non-PC, we advocate a radical shift in the intellectual climate, away from statism and toward a private property order. We believe that our foundational ideas are of permanent value, and oppose all efforts at compromise, sellout, and amalgamation of these ideas with fashionable political, cultural, and social doctrines inimical to their spirit.

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What Is the Purpose of Economic Theory?

May 7, 2024

What is the Mises Institute?

The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard. Non-political, non-partisan, and non-PC, we advocate a radical shift in the intellectual climate, away from statism and toward a private property order. We believe that our foundational ideas are of permanent value, and oppose all efforts at compromise, sellout, and amalgamation of these ideas with fashionable political, cultural, and social doctrines inimical to their spirit.

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Free-Market Profit Comes From Voluntary Exchange, not Exploitation

May 2, 2024

In our modern political culture, many people claim that profits are the outcome of some individuals exploiting other individuals. Hence, anyone who is seen trying to make profits is regarded as an enemy of society and must be stopped before inflicting damage. According to Henry Hazlitt, “The indignation shown by many people today at the mention of the very word profits indicates how little understanding there is of the vital function that profits play in our economy.”Furthermore, Hazlitt held,In a free economy, in which wages, costs and prices are left to the free play of the competitive market, the prospect of profits decides what articles will be made, and in what quantities—and what articles will not be made at all. If there is no profit in making an article,

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What Is the Purpose of Economic Theory?

April 26, 2024

Mainstream economists believe our knowledge of the world of economics is elusive, so the criteria for choosing a theory should be its predictive power. If the theory “predicts,” it is regarded as a valid framework to assess the economy. Once a theory fails in that role, the search for a new theory begins.For instance, an economist believes that consumer outlays on goods and services are determined by disposable income. Once this view is validated by statistical methods, it is used to assess the future direction of consumer spending. If the theory fails to produce accurate forecasts, it is either replaced or modified by adding some other explanatory variables. This way of thinking implies that our knowledge of the world of economics is elusive.Since we cannot

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Why Average Goods Prices Cannot be Established

April 4, 2024

The price or the rate of exchange of one good in terms of another is the amount of the other good divided by the amount of the first good. In the money economy, price will be the amount of money divided by the amount of the first good.Suppose two transactions were conducted. In the first transaction, one TV set is exchanged for $1,000. In the second transaction one shirt is exchanged for $40. The price or the rate of exchange in the first transaction is $1,000 per TV set. The price in the second transaction is $40 per shirt. Could we then establish the average price paid in these two transactions?In order to calculate the average price, we must add these two ratios and divide them by two. However, $1,000 per TV set cannot be added to $40 per shirt, implying that

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It’s Economic Logic: Increasing the Minimum Wage Creates More Unemployment

March 30, 2024

Some economists believe that the increase in the minimum wage will boost unemployment, while other economists think otherwise. Hence, they believe that raising the minimum wage would raise the living standards of workers.For example, in a study conducted in the 1990s, economists David Card and Alan Krueger examined a minimum-wage rise in New Jersey by comparing fast-food restaurants there and in an adjacent part of Pennsylvania, finding no impact on employment. Other economists, however, found that the increase in minimum wages increased employment. Given the contradictory results, is there an alternative approach to decide whether an increase in the minimum wage will result in an increase or reduction in employment?Can Historical Data Inform Us on How the Economy

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Krugman: Low Unemployment Causes Inflation, Not Monetary Expansion

March 5, 2024

In an article in the New York Times on March 27, 2018, Paul Krugman argues that economists who believe increases in money supply cause inflation are wrong. According to Krugman, the key factor that sets inflation in motion is unemployment. While a decline in the unemployment rate is associated with an increase in the rate of inflation, an upsurge in the unemployment rate is associated with a decline in the rate of inflation.Krugman believes inflation is about general increases in the prices of goods and services, which we suggest is a flawed definition. To ascertain what inflation really is, we must establish how this phenomenon emerged, tracing it back to its historical origin.The Essence of InflationInflation is an act of embezzlement. Historically, inflation

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Does the Balance of Payments Determine Exchange Rates?

February 26, 2024

Some economists believe that the balance of payments is what determines currency exchange rates. In fact, exchange rates are always about the purchasing power of some currencies relative to others.
Original Article: Does the Balance of Payments Determine Exchange Rates?

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Does the Balance of Payments Determine Exchange Rates?

February 14, 2024

It is a common belief that a key factor in determining the currency exchange rate is the balance of payments. An increase in imports increases the demand for foreign currency. To obtain the foreign currency, importers buy it using domestic currency, which strengthens the exchange rate of the foreign currency against domestic money. Conversely, an increase in exports, in which exporters exchange their foreign currency earnings for domestic currency, increases the value of the domestic currency exchange rate against the foreign currency.
In this way of thinking, exporters determine the supply of foreign currency while importers determine the demand for it. Hence, the interaction between supply and demand establishes a foreign currency exchange rate.
Following this

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Can an Easy Money Policy Increase Employment of “Idle Resources”?

January 11, 2024

Whenever an economy falls into a recession, many economists point out that the economic slump means there will be idle capital and labor. Resources that could be employed are now unemployed because the economic slump has softened aggregate demand for goods and services.
So-called experts believe the government must increase the overall demand in the economy since stronger demand will permit idle resources to be employed again. Hence, many economists recommend that the central bank adopt an easy monetary stance to strengthen aggregate demand.
It appears to be quite simple: boost expenditure on goods and services and this, in turn, will strengthen the overall output in the economy by the multiple of the expenditure, thanks to the Keynesian multiplier. According to

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Modern Portfolio Theory Is Mistaken: Diversification Is Not Investment

December 27, 2023

According to modern portfolio theory (MPT), financial asset prices always fully reflect all available and relevant information, and any adjustment to new information is virtually instantaneous. Thus, asset prices respond only to the unexpected part of information since the expected portion is already embedded in prices.
For example, if the central bank raises interest rates by 0.5 percent, and if market participants anticipated this action, asset prices will reflect this expected increase prior to the central bank’s raising interest rates. Note that once the central bank lifts the interest rate by 0.5 percent, this increase will have no effect on asset prices since stock prices have already adjusted. However, should the central bank raise interest rates by 1

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Does Debt Make Capitalism Financially Unstable?

December 20, 2023

According to the post-Keynesian School of Economics economist Hyman Minsky, the capitalist economy has an inherent tendency to develop instability that culminates in a severe economic crisis. The key mechanism that pushes the economy toward a crisis is the accumulation of debt.
According to Minsky, during “good” times businesses in profitable sectors of the economy are rewarded for increasing their debt levels. The more one borrows, the more profit one seems to make. The rising profit attracts other entrepreneurs and encourages them to raise their debt levels.
Since the economy is doing well and borrowers show visible improvements in their financial health, lenders are more eager to lend. Over time, however, the pace of debt accumulation starts to rise much faster

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Inflationary Expectations Do Not Cause Inflation

December 14, 2023

According to mainstream economists, the expectation of inflation leads to higher prices. That is impossible, however, because actual inflation involves real increases in the money supply.
Original Article: Inflationary Expectations Do Not Cause Inflation

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A Rising Stock Market Does Not Drive Economic Growth

December 7, 2023

Many people believe that a general increase in stock prices is an important factor in economic growth. However, this is a questionable observation.
The view that the stock market drives economic growth originates from the observation that changes in stock prices precede changes in economic data. We suggest that various economic indicators are heavily influenced by money supply, which also drives stock prices.
The price of something is the amount of money asked for per unit. When an increased money supply enters a market, more money is being paid for those goods, which means the prices of those goods have increased. Furthermore, when money is increasing in supply, it does not move instantly to all markets. Instead, it moves from one market to another with time

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Can Econometric Models Provide a Laboratory Setting for Economic Analysis?

November 21, 2023

Econometric model building attempts to produce a laboratory with controlled variables. By means of mathematical and statistical methods, an economist establishes functional relationships between various economic variables.
For example, personal consumer outlays are related to personal disposable income and interest rates, while fixed capital investments are explained by the past stock of capital, interest rates, and economic activity. A group of such estimated relations constitutes an econometric model.
A comparison of the goodness of fit of the dynamic simulation versus the actual data is an important criterion in assessing the reliability of a model. (In a static simulation, the model is solved using actual lagged variables. In a dynamic simulation, the solution

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Time Preference Is the Key Driver of Interest Rates

November 9, 2023

By popular thinking, whenever the central bank raises the growth rate of the money supply through the buying of financial assets such as Treasuries this pushes the prices of Treasuries higher and their yields lower. This is labeled as the monetary liquidity effect. This effect is inversely correlated with interest rates.
Furthermore, an increase in the money supply after a time lag strengthens economic activity and this pushes interest rates higher. Note that we have here a positive correlation between economic activity and interest rates.
After a much longer time lag, the increase in the growth rate of money supply is starting to exert an upward pressure on the prices of goods and services. Once prices begin to move higher, the inflation expectations effect

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A Fed-Induced “Neutral” Interest Rate Is a Contradiction in Terms

November 2, 2023

The New York Federal Reserve said on Tuesday, September 5, 2023, that the estimate for the neutral rate for Q2 has eased to 0.57 percent from 0.68 percent in Q1. Analysts typically translate that rate into a real-world setting by adding the neutral rate to the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target. The current reading suggests that a federal funds rate of around 2.5 percent would represent a neutral setting. Given that the Fed’s current target rate range is between 5.25 and 5.5 percent, this suggests that the interest rate policy remains very restrictive.
Based on this, it is quite likely that the Fed will loosen its interest rate stance ahead. This view is further reinforced by the massive increase in the ratio of the federal funds rate target to the neutral rate of

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Why Must Supply Precede Demand? Understanding Economic Foundations

October 28, 2023

Popular economic thinking holds that consumer spending is the most important driver of the economy. Actually, demand can’t exist without something first being supplied.
Original Article: Why Must Supply Precede Demand? Understanding Economic Foundations

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The Central Bank Policy Interest Rate vs the Natural Rate

October 12, 2023

While central banks use administered interest rates in hopes of emulating the natural rate, these efforts are always going to fail. Without free markets, there is no natural rate.

Original Article: The Central Bank Policy Interest Rate vs the Natural Rate

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Why Must Supply Precede Demand? Understanding Economic Foundations

October 11, 2023

In the market economy, wealth generators do not produce everything for their own consumption. Part of their production is used in exchange for the produce of other producers. Hence, in the market economy, production precedes consumption.
This means that something is exchanged for something else. This also means that an increase in the production of goods and services sets in motion an increase in the demand for goods and services.
According to David Ricardo,
No man produces, but with a view to consume or sell, and he never sells, but with an intention to purchase some other commodity, which may be immediately useful to him, or which may contribute to future production. By producing, then, he necessarily becomes either the consumer of his own goods, or the

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