The strength of the Swiss franc (CHF) has been the topic of countless “expert” analyses for over a year and it has received considerable coverage in the mainstream financial press. In fact, the last time the currency garnered this much interest was probably in 2011, when its celebrated “safe haven” status backfired, as investors fled to it in droves and pushed the price to levels that forced the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to intervene and peg it to the euro. Or perhaps it was when that cap was lifted in 2015, again making intentional headlines.

The renewed attention it has been attracting more recently, however, has nothing to do with truly “breaking news” of that nature. It has to do with its impressive performance, comparative to other currencies, and arguably with the fact that

The strength of the Swiss franc (CHF) has been the topic of countless “expert” analyses for over a year and it has received considerable coverage in the mainstream financial press. In fact, the last time the currency garnered this much interest was probably in 2011, when its celebrated “safe haven” status backfired, as investors fled to it in droves and pushed the price to levels that forced the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to intervene and peg it to the euro. Or perhaps it was when that cap was lifted in 2015, again making intentional headlines.

The renewed attention it has been attracting more recently, however, has nothing to do with truly “breaking news” of that nature. It has to do with its impressive performance, comparative to other currencies, and

Part II of II

The big shift 

Of course, this is the Left, but also the Right, of the good old days. The days of gentlemanly conduct and of real sportsmanship during a debate. These were the days when cultivated, curious and humble people argued passionately, but honourably. These were the days of decency, of common courtesy and civility. 

But also these were the days of ideological integrity and consistency. For example, the arguments and the sentiments that were employed by many decent citizens against the Iraq war were largely aligned with those that were employed against the Vietnam and Korean wars. Most readers will likely remember whence any meaningful opposition emerged against the last “big” war – the US “intervention” in Iraq: Much like before, even though the US

Part II of II

The big shift 

Of course, this is the Left, but also the Right, of the good old days. The days of gentlemanly conduct and of real sportsmanship during a debate. These were the days when cultivated, curious and humble people argued passionately, but honourably. These were the days of decency, of common courtesy and civility. 

But also these were the days of ideological integrity and consistency. For example, the arguments and the sentiments that were employed by many decent citizens against the Iraq war were largely aligned with those that were employed against the Vietnam and Korean wars. Most readers will likely remember whence any meaningful opposition emerged against the last “big” war – the US “intervention” in Iraq: Much like

Part I of II

Those of us who have read and studied political history, who have closely observed its evolution and especially those who have taken note of all the tactics and ploys used over the last couple of decades, will surely not be surprised by any of the findings and ideas I’ll outline in the following analysis. I would still encourage the reader to read on, though. Because for the majority of citizens, taxpayers, savers and investors, this all might still be “breaking news” and even for those who have considered these points before, it can still inform them of future possibilities they didn’t know were possible or never thought could be. 

The illusion of choice

From Europe to Australia and to the US, our western democracies, our “enlightened” societies

On November 15, 2021, almost twenty-one months ago, I once again had the rare and delightful opportunity to have a conversation with Prince Michael of Liechtenstein. His insights, especially with his directness and unequivocal honesty, have frequently provided me with a lot of food for thought in the past. This interview was no different. His candid and unfiltered responses to a wide variety of questions and topics made this conversation as illuminating as it was enjoyable.
Good things take time—that’s why I always thought I would release this interview once I personally believed the time was right or, at least, when I would have hope that people might better understand (or better yet, remember) that the concept of cause and effect still applies. Actions have

Threats to freedom of speech and efforts to suppress dissenting views and voices have been on the rise over the past decades. They were exponentially intensified since the ascent of social media and as the political polarisation in the West truly took hold of our societies, the powers that be have been using any and all toolsat their disposal to “defend” the interests of the establishment against those who might try to publicly question its policies (or even worse, its purpose).

Many of us who have been keeping tabs on the restrictions on all kinds of individual freedoms have been aware of this dangerous trend for quite some time already. However, it was during the covid crisis that it became obvious to a lot more people too. Anyone reluctant to fully

Threats to freedom of speech and efforts to suppress dissenting views and voices have been on the rise over the past decades. They were exponentially intensified since the ascent of social media and as the political polarisation in the West truly took hold of our societies, the powers that be have been using any and all toolsat their disposal to “defend” the interests of the establishment against those who might try to publicly question its policies (or even worse, its purpose).

Many of us who have been keeping tabs on the restrictions on all kinds of individual freedoms have been aware of this dangerous trend for quite some time already. However, it was during the covid crisis that it became obvious to a lot more people too. Anyone reluctant to fully embrace and follow the State’s

Part II of II

If this kind of theoretical reasoning seems too abstract, let us think about it more practically: Any public servant, any member of government, and even the leader of a nation, has very different motivations than any private sector decision-maker. Their financial compensation is a given and their time preference is dictated by their job description. 

The company owner on the other hand has no such guarantees regarding their livelihoods. Everything depends on how hard they work and how well they perform and they have no “job security” and no fixed 4-year terms. They are thus more more heavily incentivised to make choices with a long-term view and they do not have the luxury of adopting people-pleasing but eventually toxic policies, as they know they will have to

Part I of II

For decades already, one of the most popular and commonly employed attacks of Keynesians and other left-leaning economists was the one against the idea of “trickle down economics”. They ridiculed the notion that a rising tide lifts all boats or plainly put, the obvious fact that when job creators thrive, so do the people that hold those jobs and sustain themselves and their families thanks to them. 

The main objection to this idea is that such a “trickle down” impact could never actually take place, because of the selfishness and greed of those lucky enough to be at the top. The argument goes: Those privileged few, those “rich and entitled” ones, would never let any advantage “trickle down” – they would surely find a way to cheat and to rip off the people below them

Part II of II

A good start

Whatever one might think about which currency is better suited to be used in trade or as a benchmark or as a central bank reserve, the fact remains that the USD’s days as the “only right answer” to that question are numbered. It might not happen tomorrow, but a credible challenger will eventually emerge. 

As Patrick Barron also highlighted in his analysis: “Led by China and later by Russia, some nations of the world, not wholly within the US orbit, have been building the necessary infrastructure and rules for conflict resolution and increasing trade and investment. Countries representing the vast majority of the world’s population, and also most of the world’s proven commodities, are intent upon industrializing as did the West. The basis for world

Part I of II

Endless ink has been spilled by economists and financial analysts in their efforts to predict the impact of de-dollarization. As might be expected, most of those who embrace a US-centric view of the world and who defend the status quo paint a gloomy picture. They warn of the nightmarish consequences of a Russia- and China-dominated world order, of the threats to freedom and to human rights that this could pose and of a potential breakdown in global trade, due to lack of trust and transparency. 

Without wishing to summarily dismiss these concerns, I do believe it is important to examine crucial shifts like the de-dollarization one rationally and dispassionately. So, for example, it is rather alarmist to predict major trade disruptions because “people do no trust the

On November 15th, 2021, almost 20 months ago, I once again had the rare and delightful opportunity to have a conversation with Prince Michael. His insights, and especially his directness and unequivocal honesty, have frequently provided me with a lot of food for thought in the past. This interview was no different. His candid and unfiltered responses to a wide variety of questions and topics made this conversation as illuminating as it was enjoyable.

Good things take time – that’s why I always thought I would release this interview once I personally believed the time was right. Or at least when I would have hope that people might better understand (or better yet, remember) that the concept of cause and effect still applies. Actions have consequences: this is an everlasting truth

There is clearly a common denominator in the kind of “solutions” that the State comes up with to deal with the problems that it caused (and that’s most problems). Not only are these remedies worse than the disease, but they are always extremely simplistic, reductionist and they never, ever, take into account anything else apart from the political “optics” and the populistic value of each new measure or piece of legislation. There is no consideration about the impact down the line, the price that the population as a whole would have to pay or the ways society itself could be affected. 

In recent years, we saw this kind of flagrant irresponsibility and recklessness in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, when all western governments and their central banks

There is clearly a common denominator in the kind of “solutions” that the State comes up with to deal with the problems that it caused (and that’s most problems). Not only are these remedies worse than the disease, but they are always extremely simplistic, reductionist and they never, ever, take into account anything else apart from the political “optics” and the populistic value of each new measure or piece of legislation. There is no consideration about the impact down the line, the price that the population as a whole would have to pay or the ways society itself could be affected. 

In recent years, we saw this kind of flagrant irresponsibility and recklessness in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, when all western governments and their central banks embraced QE and ZIRP & NIRP as

INTERVIEW WITH GODFREY BLOOM: 

Over the last couple of years, the UK has been increasingly in the news – for all the wrong reasons. The cost of living crisis, in particular, has been monopolizing headlines at home and abroad. Of course, inflation is by no means unique to the country. To the contrary, it has been hovering at similar or higher levels in virtually all advanced economies for quite some time. What is unique to the UK though, is that mainstream analysts and numerous establishment figures have argued that it is yet another one of the toxic consequences of Brexit. 

What is also worrying is the sociopolitical polarization causing dangerous frictions in British society. Strikes have been causing serious disruptions in the country for months and the actions and demands of

INTERVIEW WITH GODFREY BLOOM: 

Over the last couple of years, the UK has been increasingly in the news – for all the wrong reasons. The cost of living crisis, in particular, has been monopolizing headlines at home and abroad. Of course, inflation is by no means unique to the country. To the contrary, it has been hovering at similar or higher levels in virtually all advanced economies for quite some time. What is unique to the UK though, is that mainstream analysts and numerous establishment figures have argued that it is yet another one of the toxic consequences of Brexit. 

What is also worrying is the sociopolitical polarization causing dangerous frictions in British society. Strikes have been causing serious disruptions in the country for months and

In early May, Reuters published a report that truly captured my attention. “European savers are pulling more of their money from banks, looking for a better deal as lenders resist paying up to hold on to deposits some feel they can currently live without,” the article reported. Over in the US, we see a very similar picture. As the FT also recently reported, “big US financial groups Charles Schwab, State Street and M&T suffered almost $60bn in combined bank deposit outflows in the first quarter.”

Many analyses have attempted to explain this phenomenon dubbed “bank walk”, by pointing to deposit interest rates. They argued that the problem was that while banks were quick to increase their rates for lending to customers once central banks started their “tightening”, they severely

In early May, Reuters published a report that truly captured my attention. “European savers are pulling more of their money from banks, looking for a better deal as lenders resist paying up to hold on to deposits some feel they can currently live without,” the article reported. Over in the US, we see a very similar picture. As the FT also recently reported, “big US financial groups Charles Schwab, State Street and M&T suffered almost $60bn in combined bank deposit outflows in the first quarter.”

Many analyses have attempted to explain this phenomenon dubbed “bank walk”, by pointing to deposit interest rates. They argued that the problem was that while banks were quick to increase their rates for lending to customers once central banks started their

The roots of the injustice that brought over a million to the streets 

It is the core of a long running joke that the French love to strike more than they like to work – and for good reason. Demonstrations, strikes and even riots, have been a common occurrence for decades. However, this latest round seems to be interestingly persistent, despite the fact that it’s receiving increasingly sparse media coverage.  

The last time that the French took to the streets and stayed there, and the mainstream press paid attention, was the Yellow Vest movement back in 2018. Back then, the original trigger was an unpopular new fuel tax, but the list of grievances and demands grew quickly to encompass all kinds of policy areas. Before long, the movement was essentially a vehicle to express

Part II of II by Claudio Grass

A real systemic crisis

If there was one thing more telling than the bank failures themselves, it was the governments’ reaction to them. The sheer panic that shook US, Swiss and Eurozone officials was almost pitiable to behold. The way they all rushed to make statements denying that this would be a repeat of 2008 was alarming instead of reassuring. And their apparent, urgent desperation to be believed was perhaps reason enough why they shouldn’t have been. We were told that the failed banks would be rescued, of course, so depositors and the market at large had nothing to worry about, but “by no means would they be bailed out”. Honor, once again, was sorely lacking in all those statements and assurances. Because as I pointed

Part II of II by Claudio Grass

A real systemic crisis

If there was one thing more telling than the bank failures themselves, it was the governments’ reaction to them. The sheer panic that shook US, Swiss and Eurozone officials was almost pitiable to behold. The way they all rushed to make statements denying that this would be a repeat of 2008 was alarming instead of reassuring. And their apparent, urgent desperation to be believed was perhaps reason enough why they shouldn’t have been. We were told that the failed banks would be rescued, of course, so depositors and the market at large had nothing to worry about, but “by no means would they be bailed out”. Honor, once again, was sorely lacking in all those statements and assurances. Because as I pointed out in my last article, a

Part I of II by Claudio Grass

It might sound like an old-fashioned notion, the sort of thing that one reads about in period novels and romantically sighs “oh, the good old days”. It might sound like old timely advice, perhaps of the kind that our grandparents would have given to our parents: “It doesn’t matter if you make mistakes, even if you lose everything, as long as you still have your honor”. Sure. But in our cynical, jaded and largely pedestrian day and age, the idea of honor has no real value except for a sentimental and poetic one. Today, everyone is pretty much expecting everyone else to exercise this virtue selectively, conditionally and rarely, save perhaps for our own close friends and family (and even that’s often bitterly regretted). 

Of course, there still are

Part I of II by Claudio Grass

It might sound like an old-fashioned notion, the sort of thing that one reads about in period novels and romantically sighs “oh, the good old days”. It might sound like old timely advice, perhaps of the kind that our grandparents would have given to our parents: “It doesn’t matter if you make mistakes, even if you lose everything, as long as you still have your honor”. Sure. But in our cynical, jaded and largely pedestrian day and age, the idea of honor has no real value except for a sentimental and poetic one. Today, everyone is pretty much expecting everyone else to exercise this virtue selectively, conditionally and rarely, save perhaps for our own close friends and family (and even that’s often bitterly regretted). 

Of

I hope you will enjoy my latest interview with Maneco64.

[embedded content]
Claudio Grass, Hünenberg See, Switzerland

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Therefore please feel free to share and you can subscribe for my articles by clicking here

Part II of II

To be fair, it is true, this time is different. Indeed, this time the rescue plan for the bust banks is not comparable to what we saw in 2008. In the US, the guarantee for deposits up to $250.000 comes from funds that are maintained by participating banks and not from the taxpayer. The official answer to how they’re going to pay everyone back is also plausible and possible: Some, or even most, of the money can and will be recovered from winding down the failed bank’s operations and selling assets. And if all that is still not enough, then the Fed can basically just print some money to cover the difference. Obviously, that could be construed as ultimately costly to the taxpayer, due to the inflationary impact it would have. However, realistically, that impact would

Part II of II

To be fair, it is true, this time is different. Indeed, this time the rescue plan for the bust banks is not comparable to what we saw in 2008. In the US, the guarantee for deposits up to $250.000 comes from funds that are maintained by participating banks and not from the taxpayer. The official answer to how they’re going to pay everyone back is also plausible and possible: Some, or even most, of the money can and will be recovered from winding down the failed bank’s operations and selling assets. And if all that is still not enough, then the Fed can basically just print some money to cover the difference. Obviously, that could be construed as ultimately costly to the taxpayer, due to the inflationary impact it would have. However,

Part I of II

The recent turmoil that has roiled the global banking sector has placed central bankers in an impossible position: Cut rates and avert a domino-style disaster in the industry and a possible deep and prolonged recession in the wider economy or stay the hiking course to combat the still untamed inflationary pressures? Arguably the great losers in both cases will be the taxpayers and the average working household. 

The recent turmoil in the banking sector, both in the US and in Europe has captured public attention and understandably so. The lessons learned in 2008 are still crystal clear in the minds of many people (especially those who were directly affected) and the mere prospect of a repeat of that experience is truly unconscionable. 

When news that the Silicon

Part I of II

The recent turmoil that has roiled the global banking sector has placed central bankers in an impossible position: Cut rates and avert a domino-style disaster in the industry and a possible deep and prolonged recession in the wider economy or stay the hiking course to combat the still untamed inflationary pressures? Arguably the great losers in both cases will be the taxpayers and the average working household. 

The recent turmoil in the banking sector, both in the US and in Europe has captured public attention and understandably so. The lessons learned in 2008 are still crystal clear in the minds of many people (especially those who were directly affected) and the mere prospect of a repeat of that experience is truly unconscionable.