SNB & CHF

In December 2016, the KOF Economic Barometer stayed at its previous month’s reading of 102.2. The currently observable sideward trend, at a level slightly above the long-term average, indicates that the Swiss economy should grow at rates close to its long-term average in the near future. In December 2016, the KOF Economic Barometer, with a value of 102.2 being unchanged compared to the previous month, continued...

Investors are familiar with a broad set of macroeconomic variables that often drive asset prices.  Many are familiar with corporate balance sheets, price-earning ratios, free cash flow, Q-ratio, and the like. However, political factors are more difficult for investors to integrate into their analysis. Therein lies the main challenge in the year ahead.  There will be many opportunities for political factors to overwhelm...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

While few will be trading in the week between Christmas and New Years, we thought it might be helpful to review the dollar’s technical condition.  We make two overall points. First, although the dollar’s rally strengthened and extended after the November US election, this leg up of the dollar’s longer-term rally began at the end of Q3.  The anticipation of new policies by the Trump Administration, part of the story,...

Stock Markets EM gained some limited traction as last week ended.  However, renewed concerns about China could limit this bounce as President Xi signaled the possibility that growth could fall below the government’s 6.5% target.  China PMI readings out this coming weekend will be the first snapshot of December.  Markets are likely to become more sensitive to Chinese data going forward. Stock Markets Emerging Markets...

In our latest Toward a New World Order, Part III we ended by promising to look closer at investment implications from the political and economic shift we currently find ourselves in; and that story must begin with the dollar. While known to the investing public for years, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) recently acknowledge that the real risk-off / risk-on metric in global markets is the dollar and...

Shortly after last night’s news that Deutsche Bank had settled with the DOJ for $7.2 billion, of which it would pay $3.1 billion in a civil penalty, far lower than the $14 billion number initially speculated (the stock popped as much as 4% before settling just over 2% higher currently), Credit Suisse likewise closed the books on its pre-crisis RMBS fraud when the largest Swiss bank agreed to pay $5.28 billion to...

Moody’s & Reserve Bank of Australia Warn of Increasing Mortgage Arrears and Looming Apartment Defaults Last Wednesday Moody’s reported that mortgage arrears continue to rise across Australia, particularly in the mining states of WA & NT: Moody’s report notes that mortgage performance deteriorated in all eight Australian states and territories over the year to 31 May 2016, reaching 1.50% from 1.34% at 31 May...

Posted with permission and written by Tim Taschler, Sprott Global I know that I resemble the old guy in this cartoon, standing by helplessly as I watch central bankers experiment with the global economy. Bubbles are blown, again, in several asset classes. Negative interest rates have become an acceptable concept, as if they are just words and have no real economic meaning. Stock markets trade based on the next set...

Don’t you think it fair and reasonable that anyone accusing me of being a shill for Russian propaganda ought to read my ten books in their entirety and identify the sections that support their slanderous accusation? I was amused to find my site listed on the now-infamous list of purportedly Russian-controlled propaganda sites cited by The Washington Post. I find it amusing because I invite anyone to search my 3,600-page...