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George Dorgan

George Dorgan

George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Articles by George Dorgan

Swiss Trade Balance Q1 2019: Foreign trade at a high level

4 days ago

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in March 2019: -0.2 percent YoY, +0.3 percent MoM

6 days ago

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?
15.04.2019 – The Producer and Import Price Index increased in March 2019 by 0.3% compared

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Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q4 2018 and review of the year 2018

28 days ago

Key developments in 2018
The current account surplus for 2018 was CHF 71 billion, CHF 26 billion more than in the previous year. Changes in primary income (labour and investment income) had the greatest impact: Whereas one year earlier an expenses surplus of CHF 9 billion was recorded, owing to exceptionally large expenses for direct investment receipts in 2017, in the year under review there was a receipts surplus amounting to CHF 3 billion. The receipts surplus in goods trade increased by CHF 7 billion to CHF 57 billion. This was attributable mainly to higher receipts from merchanting. The receipts surplus from trade in services rose by CHF 2 billion to CHF 20 billion. Secondary income (current transfers)

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Swiss Trade Balance February 2019: New Peak of Exports

March 20, 2019

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in February 2019: -0.7 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

March 14, 2019

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?
14.03.2019 – The Producer and Import Price Index increased in February 2019 by 0.2%

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SNB loses 15 billion in 2018

March 5, 2019

Overview
The SNB earned 2 billion on negative interest rates, but lost nearly 17 billion CHF on FX investments, of which 5 bn on bonds and 12 bn on stocks.

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings
Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, the results have huge swings that depends on the FX rate.
But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse.
Franc will rise again with crisis or inflation
With a new financial crisis or a with a big rise of inflation, the run into the Swiss franc will start again.
And this at an exchange rate that is not digestible for the SNB.
We considered that after an inflationary

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance January 2019: Start of a Positive year

February 19, 2019

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in January 2019: -0.5 percent YoY, -0.7 percent MoM

February 14, 2019

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?
14.02.2019 – The Producer and Import Price Index fell in January 2019 by 0.7% compared

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in December 2018: +0.6 percent YoY, -0.6 percent MoM

January 18, 2019

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?
18.01.2019 – The Producer and Import Price Index fell in December 2018 by 0.6% compared

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Will the SNB ever make profits again?

January 10, 2019

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings
Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings.
But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse.
Good years of the Credit Cycle: Rising Bond and Stock Prices until 2017
Until 2017, the SNB was able to profit on a secular tendency where both stock and bond prices (until 2016) were rising. This led to rising profits, that compensated for the ever rising Swiss franc.
One new negative effect of huge balance sheet
In an interview with Swiss Eco television program, SNB vice president Fritz Zurbruegg stated that the SNB is able to intervene thanks to

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Swiss balance of payments and international investment position: Q3 2018

December 21, 2018

Current Account

Key figures:
Current Account: Down 35.7% against Q3/2017 to 14.6 bn. CHF
of which Goods Trade Balance: Down 23.9% against Q3/2017 to 10.5 bn.
of which the Services Balance: Plus 8.7% to 5.0 bn.
of which Investment Income: Minus 39.7% to 7.6 bn. CHF.

Current Account Switzerland Q3 2018(see more posts on Switzerland Balance of Payments, Switzerland Capital Account, Switzerland Current Account, Switzerland Financial Account, ) Source: snb.ch – Click to enlarge

Financial account
Net acquisition of financial assets
The assets side of the financial account registered a net reduction of CHF 34 billion (Q3 2017: net reduction of CHF 37 billion). This reduction was mainly due to other investment,

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Swiss Trade Balance November 2018: Exports pass for the first time the bar of 19 billion francs

December 20, 2018

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on

Read More »

Monetary Policy Assessment of 13 December 2018

December 13, 2018

Swiss National Bank leaves expansionary monetary policy unchanged
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansio nary mo netary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB remains at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.
Since the monetary policy assessment of September 2018, the Swiss franc has depreciatedslightly on a trade-weighted basis. This development is primarily due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The franc is virtually

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in November 2018: +1.4 percent YoY, -0.3 percent MoM

December 13, 2018

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in November 2018 by 0.3% compared with the

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Swiss Trade Balance October 2018: Record exports in October 2018

November 20, 2018

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in October 2018: +2.3 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

November 13, 2018

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?
13.11.2018 – The Producer and Import Price Index increased in October 2018 by 0.2%

Read More »

SNB reports a loss of CHF 7.8 billion for third quarter of 2018

October 31, 2018

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings
Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings.
But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse.
Good years of the Credit Cycle
This trend was stopped in 2016, even without the need for a cap on the franc. But one should consider that we are in the good years of the credit cycle now.
Franc will rise again with crisis or inflation
With a new financial crisis or a with a big rise of inflation, the run into the Swiss franc will start again.
And this at an exchange rate that is not digestible for the SNB.
We considered that after an inflationary

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Q3 2018: First Decline in Foreign Trade Over the Last Seven Quarters

October 18, 2018

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true.
Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans.
But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in September 2018: +2.6 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM

October 15, 2018

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?
Neuchâtel, 15 October 2018 (FSO) – The Producer and Import Price Index fell in September

Read More »

Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q2 2018

September 24, 2018

Current Account

Key figures:
Current Account: Up 27.0% against Q1/2018 to 22.1 bn. CHF
of which Goods Trade Balance:  Up 4.8% against Q1/2018 to 15.2 bn.
of which the Services Balance: Minus 20.6% to 4.6 bn.
of which Investment Income: Plus 107.7% to 10.7 bn. CHF.

Current Account Switzerland Q2 2018(see more posts on Switzerland Balance of Payments, Switzerland Capital Account, Switzerland Current Account, Switzerland Financial Account, ) Source: snb.ch – Click to enlarge

Financial account
Net acquisition of financial assets
The assets side of the financial account registered a net reduction of CHF 50 billion (Q2 2017: net acquisition of CHF 60 billion). With the exception of reserve assets, all

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Swiss Trade Balance August 2018: Exports above the 18 billion Franc Mark

September 20, 2018

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true.
Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans.
But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in August 2018: +3.4 percent YoY, unchanged MoM

September 13, 2018

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?
Neuchâtel, 13 September 2018 (FSO) – The Producer and Import Price Index remained

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance July 2018: Slowdown to a High Level

August 22, 2018

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true.
Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans.
But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in July 2018: +3.6 YoY, +0.1 MoM

August 14, 2018

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?
Neuchâtel, 14 August 2018 (FSO) – The Producer and Import Price Index increased in July

Read More »

SNB reports a profit of CHF 5.1 billion for the first half of 2018

July 31, 2018

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings
Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings.
But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse.
Good years of the Credit Cycle
This trend was stopped in 2016, even without the need for a cap on the franc. But one should consider that we are in the good years of the credit cycle now.
Franc will rise again with crisis or inflation
With a new financial crisis or a with a big rise of inflation, the run into the Swiss franc will start again.
And this at an exchange rate that is not digestible for the SNB.
We considered that after an inflationary

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance June 2018: Fifth consecutive record of exports

July 20, 2018

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true.
Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans.
But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2018: +3.5 YoY, +0.2 MoM

July 13, 2018

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?
Neuchâtel, 13 July 2018 (FSO) – The Producer and Import Price Index increased in June

Read More »

Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q1 2018

June 25, 2018

Current Account
The current account surplus amounted to CHF 18 billion, a CHF 5 billion increase over the year-back quarter. It was calculated as the sum of all receipts (CHF 149 billion) minus the sum of all expenses (CHF 131 billion).

Key figures:
Current Account: Up 41% against Q1/2017 to 18.1 bn. CHF
of which Goods Trade Balance:  Up 62.7% against Q1/2017 to 15.1 bn.
of which the Services Balance: Minus 6.2% to 5.0 bn.
of which Investment Income: Plus 7.3% to 6.5 bn.

 Calculation:

Swiss Balance of Payments Q1 2018(see more posts on Switzerland Balance of Payments, Switzerland Capital Account, Switzerland Current Account, Switzerland Financial Account, ) Source: snb.ch – Click to enlarge

Financial

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Swiss Trade Balance May 2018: Foreign trade overcomes stagnation

June 21, 2018

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true.
Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans.
But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in May 2018: +3.2 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

June 13, 2018

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?
Neuchâtel, 13 June 2018 (FSO) – The Producer and Import Price Index increased in May 2018

Read More »