We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings
Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings.
But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse.
Low Inflation, Crashes and Central Bank Money Printing
The crisis caused by the Covid19 virus,is a typical crisis with low inflation (at least for now). During such a crisis, central bank money printing helps asset price to rise again.
This applies to all assets on the SNB balance sheet:
Government and corporate bonds
Stocks
Gold
The Corona crisis is just one of these low inflation crisis.
Therefore SNB profits have recovered; this time far more quickly than during the Financial Crisis. As

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Update January 10, 2021: 
Sight Deposits have risen by +1.9 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars.
We had finally arrived in the inflation scenario I was speaking about before.
Inflation is the period, when both the Swiss franc and gold must go up.
BUT :
U.S. CPI is at 5%, at the highest value since the year 1990 (excluding one outlayer in Summer 2008).
But European inflation has gone down to 1.9%., In particular prices of European services, that are mostly correlated with longer-term inflation, went down to +0.7% Hence Stock markets have recovered – after the initial fear.
Speculative Positioning: Speculators are long CHF against USD, Moreover they are long EUR position against USD, already over one year.

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings
Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings.
But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse.
Low Inflation, Crashes and Central Bank Money Printing
The crisis caused by the Covid19 virus,is a typical crisis with low inflation (at least for now). During such a crisis, central bank money printing helps asset price to rise again.
This applies to all assets on the SNB balance sheet:
Government and corporate bonds
Stocks
Gold
The Corona crisis is just one of these low inflation crisis.
Therefore SNB profits have recovered; this time far more quickly than during the Financial Crisis. As

In the second quarter of 2021, the current account surplus amounted to almost CHF 11 billion, CHF 7 billion higher than in the same quarter of 2020. The rise was mainly attributable to a higher receipts surplus in goods trade. This was counteracted by primary income, where the  expenses surplus increased compared to the same quarter in 2020 due to the fact that, in direct investment, expenses rose more strongly than receipts.
In the financial account, reported transactions for the second quarter of 2021 showed a net acquisition of financial assets (CHF 19 billion) and a net incurrence of liabilities (CHF 7 billion). On the assets side, several factors contributed to the net acquisition: Resident investors purchased collective investment schemes and debt securities

Update September 20 2021: SNB Selling Dollars and Euros
Sight Deposits have fallen: The change is -0.2 bn. compared to last week, this means the SNB is selling euros and dollars.
We had finally arrived in the inflation scenario I was speaking about before.
Inflation is the period, when both the Swiss franc and gold must go up.
BUT :
U.S. CPI is at 5%, at the highest value since the year 1990 (excluding one outlayer in Summer 2008).
But European inflation has gone down to 1.9%., In particular prices of European services, that are mostly correlated with longer-term inflation, went down to +0.7%Hence Stock markets have recovered – after the initial fear.
Speculative Positioning: Speculators are long CHF against USD, Moreover they are long EUR

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Update March 29 2021: SNB selling euros and dollars
Sight Deposits have fallen: The change is -0.2 bn. compared to last week, this means the SNB is selling euros and dollars.
Speculative Positioning: Speculators are long CHF against USD. Since March 13, they have shifted to a long EUR position against USD.
The following shows the recent developments.
Sight Deposits, i.e. SNB interventions
FX rates
Speculative positions CHF: Since April, speculators are long CHF against USD.

Week ending in (+ link to source)
Events…………………….
avg. EUR/CHF during period
avg. USD/CHF during period
Net Speculative PositionCHF vs USD
Net speculative Position
EUR vs USD
Delta sight deposits
if >0 then SNB intervention
Total Sight Deposits
Sight Deposits @SNB from Swiss

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings
Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings.
But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse.
Low Inflation, Crashes and Central Bank Money Printing
The crisis caused by the Covid19 virus,is a typical crisis with low inflation (at least for now). During such a crisis, central bank money printing helps asset price to rise again.
This applies to all assets on the SNB balance sheet:
Government and corporate bonds
Stocks
Gold
The Corona crisis is just one of these low inflation crisis.
Therefore SNB profits have recovered; this time far more quickly than during the Financial Crisis. As

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?
19.01.2021 – The Producer and Import Price Index rose in December 2020 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 98.4 points

In the third quarter of 2020, the current account surplus amounted to CHF 9 billion, CHF 3 billion less than in the same quarter of 2019. This decline was particularly due to the lower receipts surplus in trade in goods and services. In the case of the goods trade, the decline was attributable to gold trading. This decrease was curbed by the expenses surplus for primary and secondary income, which decreased compared to Q3 2019.
In the financial account, reported transactions in the third quarter of 2020 showed a net acquisition of financial assets (CHF 40 billion) and a net incurrence of liabilities (CHF 27 billion). The acquisition on the assets side was the result of intragroup lending (direct investment) and the SNB’s purchases of foreign currency (reserve

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?

15.12.2020 – The Producer and Import Price Index fell by 0.1% in November 2020 compared with the previous month. The index stood at 97.9

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Deaths because of and with Covid19
Over the last 48 hours, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) reported a further 227 deaths among laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases, bringing the death toll to 1,654 since summer and 3,385 since the beginning of the year.
Total Covid-19 deaths in Switzerland since the beginning of the pandemic have now reached 3,696 of which 3,385 were laboratory confirmed infections.
Hospitalisations
The are currently 543 Covid-19 patients in intensive care in Switzerland, a number above the peak of 527 reached during the first wave, reported to SRF based data supplied by ICU monitoring.
Postponing regular hospital operations has so far allowed Swiss hospitals, in aggregate, to operate with some intensive care beds in reserve.

Deaths because of and with Covid19
Over the last 72 hours, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) reported 198 deaths among laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases, bringing the death toll to 1,427 since summer and 3,158 since the beginning of the year.
Total Covid-19 deaths in Switzerland since the beginning of the pandemic have now reached 3,496 of which 3,158 were laboratory confirmed infections.
Hospitalisations
At 4,000, the number of hospitalised Covid-19 patients remains high in Switzerland, based on figures published by RTS. During the first wave, this figure peaked at 2,409.
Scaling back regular hospital operations has so far allowed Swiss hospitals, in aggregate, to avoid intensive care overload. Currently, 75% of current intensive care

Deaths because of and with Covid19
Over the 7 days to 13 November 2020, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) reported 553 deaths among laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases, bringing the death toll to 1,229 since summer and 2,960 since the beginning of the year.
The 553 reported deaths this week represent 19% of the total so far, making the last 7 days the deadliest 7-day period since the virus arrived in Switzerland.
There are currently 3,945 Covid-19 patients in hospitals across Switzerland, according to FOPH figures published by RTS, a number significantly above the peak during the first wave.
Total Covid-19 deaths in Switzerland since the beginning of the pandemic have now reached 3,235, of which 2,960 were laboratory confirmed infections.

New Infections
On 9 November 2020, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) reported 17,309 new laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases over 72 hours, bringing the total to 229,222.
The 24-hour average number of new cases of 5,770 recorded over the weekend is lower than the previous weekend when it was 7,309 (21,926 over 72 hours).
However, Alain Berset, the minister in charge of health care in Switzerland, told an audience in Jura that now is not the time to relax, according to RTS. Hospitals and nursing homes are under great stress, said the minister. Certain cantons are being forced to transfer patients to other cantons as they have reached the limit of their intensive care capacity.

Daily Reported Cases Switzerland, November 10 Source:

Deaths because of and with Covid19
On 5 November 2020, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) reported 62 deaths among laboratory-confirmed cases of Covid over 24 hours, bringing the total death toll since summer to 606.
Current daily deaths are not far from the peak level reached during the first wave over spring, according to FOPH data.
Total deaths in Switzerland since the beginning of the pandemic have reached 2,622, of which 2,337 were laboratory confirmed.

.

Hospitalisations
In addition, FOPH reported a further 399 hospitalisations over 24 hours. There are currently 3,428 Covid-19 patients in hospitals across Switzerland, according to FOPH figures published by RTS.
Across Switzerland, 23% (241) of Switzerland’s intensive care capacity

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings
Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings.
But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse.

Low Inflation, Crashes and Central Bank Money Printing
The crisis caused by the Covid19 virus,is a typical crisis with low inflation (at least for now). During such a crisis, central bank money printing helps asset price to rise again.
This applies to all assets on the SNB balance sheet:
Government and corporate bonds
Stocks
Gold
The Corona crisis is just one of these low inflation crisis.
Therefore SNB profits have recovered; this time far more quickly than during the Financial Crisis. As

Second Covid Wave in Europe
The second wave of the Coronavirus is currently raging in Europe. 
The attached image shows the number of newly infected people in European countries on a linear scale. In particular in the Czech republic, but also in Switzerland, France or Spain, one can see a tendency towards exponential growth.

New cases in Europe – Click to enlarge

Multiplier between Newly Infected and Newly  Recovered
Many people quickly recover after having contracted Coronavirus, they are not infectious any more after about 10 days. Therefore one must compare the number of newly infected people with the number of recovered people. This gives a delta.

Unfortunately some countries like the UK or Spain do not publish the number of newly recovered.
The

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To