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George Dorgan

George Dorgan

George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Articles by George Dorgan

Which brokerage account is best for beginners in Singapore?

27 days ago

Are you looking to invest in Singapore but feeling overwhelmed by all the different options? Finding the correct brokerage account can be challenging, especially if you are not an experienced investor. That’s why we’ve broken down some of the top-rated brokers in Singapore, explaining the pros and cons each offers so you can choose which online trading platform is best for your needs.

Whether it’s low fees, advanced analytics tools, or a comprehensive education library that matters most, our guide will help ensure your hard-earned money works as hard as possible.

Saxo Markets
Investing can feel intimidating, especially for newcomers who’ve never looked into it before. When looking for the best trading platform in Singapore to get started with, you should be

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Swiss Trade Balance November 2022: pharmaceuticals weigh down exports

December 20, 2022

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true.
Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans.
But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance October 2022: declining foreign trade

November 18, 2022

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true.
Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans.
But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance 3nd quarter 2022: foreign trade remains in rise

October 20, 2022

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true.
Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans.
But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

Interim results of the Swiss National Bank as at 30 June 2022

July 29, 2022

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings
Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings.
But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse.
Low Inflation, Crashes and Central Bank Money Printing
The crisis caused by the Covid19 virus,is a typical crisis with low inflation (at least for now). During such a crisis, central bank money printing helps asset price to rise again.
This applies to all assets on the SNB balance sheet:
Government and corporate bonds
Stocks
Gold
The Corona crisis is just one of these low inflation crisis.
Therefore SNB profits have recovered; this time far more quickly than during the Financial Crisis. As

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance 2nd quarter 2022: 8th consecutive quarterly increase

July 19, 2022

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true.
Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans.
But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance May 2022: surge in imports towards a level record

June 22, 2022

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

Interim results of the Swiss National Bank as at 31 March 2022

May 3, 2022

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings
Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings.
But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse.
Low Inflation, Crashes and Central Bank Money Printing
The crisis caused by the Covid19 virus,is a typical crisis with low inflation (at least for now). During such a crisis, central bank money printing helps asset price to rise again.
This applies to all assets on the SNB balance sheet:
Government and corporate bonds
Stocks
Gold
The Corona crisis is just one of these low inflation crisis.
Therefore SNB profits have recovered; this time far more quickly than during the Financial Crisis. As

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Q1 2022: foreign trade chain record upon record

April 27, 2022

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Year 2021: exports climb to one record level

January 27, 2022

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

SNB Sight Deposits: Inflation is there, CHF must Rise

January 10, 2022

Update January 10, 2021: 
Sight Deposits have risen by +1.9 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars.
We had finally arrived in the inflation scenario I was speaking about before.
Inflation is the period, when both the Swiss franc and gold must go up.
BUT :
U.S. CPI is at 5%, at the highest value since the year 1990 (excluding one outlayer in Summer 2008).
But European inflation has gone down to 1.9%., In particular prices of European services, that are mostly correlated with longer-term inflation, went down to +0.7% Hence Stock markets have recovered – after the initial fear.
Speculative Positioning: Speculators are long CHF against USD, Moreover they are long EUR position against USD, already over one year.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance October 2021: chemistry-pharma tarnishes the foreign trade table

November 18, 2021

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

Interim results of the Swiss National Bank as at 30 September 2021

October 29, 2021

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings
Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings.
But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse.
Low Inflation, Crashes and Central Bank Money Printing
The crisis caused by the Covid19 virus,is a typical crisis with low inflation (at least for now). During such a crisis, central bank money printing helps asset price to rise again.
This applies to all assets on the SNB balance sheet:
Government and corporate bonds
Stocks
Gold
The Corona crisis is just one of these low inflation crisis.
Therefore SNB profits have recovered; this time far more quickly than during the Financial Crisis. As

Read More »

Swiss balance of payments and international investment position: Q2 2021

September 23, 2021

In the second quarter of 2021, the current account surplus amounted to almost CHF 11 billion, CHF 7 billion higher than in the same quarter of 2020. The rise was mainly attributable to a higher receipts surplus in goods trade. This was counteracted by primary income, where the  expenses surplus increased compared to the same quarter in 2020 due to the fact that, in direct investment, expenses rose more strongly than receipts.
In the financial account, reported transactions for the second quarter of 2021 showed a net acquisition of financial assets (CHF 19 billion) and a net incurrence of liabilities (CHF 7 billion). On the assets side, several factors contributed to the net acquisition: Resident investors purchased collective investment schemes and debt securities

Read More »

SNB Sight Deposits: Inflation Fear Decreasing, SNB Selling Euros

September 20, 2021

Update September 20 2021: SNB Selling Dollars and Euros
Sight Deposits have fallen: The change is -0.2 bn. compared to last week, this means the SNB is selling euros and dollars.
We had finally arrived in the inflation scenario I was speaking about before.
Inflation is the period, when both the Swiss franc and gold must go up.
BUT :
U.S. CPI is at 5%, at the highest value since the year 1990 (excluding one outlayer in Summer 2008).
But European inflation has gone down to 1.9%., In particular prices of European services, that are mostly correlated with longer-term inflation, went down to +0.7%Hence Stock markets have recovered – after the initial fear.
Speculative Positioning: Speculators are long CHF against USD, Moreover they are long EUR

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Q2 2021: secondary sector rose sharply in 2nd quarter 2021

August 19, 2021

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Q2 2021: export record

July 20, 2021

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Q1 2021: exports go back above their pre-Covid-19 level

April 23, 2021

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB selling euros and dollars – March 29, 2021

March 29, 2021

Update March 29 2021: SNB selling euros and dollars
Sight Deposits have fallen: The change is -0.2 bn. compared to last week, this means the SNB is selling euros and dollars.
Speculative Positioning: Speculators are long CHF against USD. Since March 13, they have shifted to a long EUR position against USD.
The following shows the recent developments.
Sight Deposits, i.e. SNB interventions
FX rates
Speculative positions CHF: Since April, speculators are long CHF against USD.

Week ending in (+ link to source)
Events…………………….
avg. EUR/CHF during period
avg. USD/CHF during period
Net Speculative PositionCHF vs USD
Net speculative Position
EUR vs USD
Delta sight deposits
if >0 then SNB intervention
Total Sight Deposits
Sight Deposits @SNB from Swiss

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance An exceptional year 2020: border crossings closed and online commerce booming

March 4, 2021

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

The Swiss National Bank reports a profit of CHF 20.9 billion for 2020 (2019: CHF 48.9 billion).

March 1, 2021

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings
Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings.
But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse.
Low Inflation, Crashes and Central Bank Money Printing
The crisis caused by the Covid19 virus,is a typical crisis with low inflation (at least for now). During such a crisis, central bank money printing helps asset price to rise again.
This applies to all assets on the SNB balance sheet:
Government and corporate bonds
Stocks
Gold
The Corona crisis is just one of these low inflation crisis.
Therefore SNB profits have recovered; this time far more quickly than during the Financial Crisis. As

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance January 2021: foreign trade starts the year on a positive note

February 18, 2021

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Foreign trade 2020: historic decline against the backdrop of a pandemic

January 28, 2021

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in November 2020: -2.3 percent YoY, -0.5 percent MoM

January 19, 2021

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?
19.01.2021 – The Producer and Import Price Index rose in December 2020 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 98.4 points

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Swiss balance of payments and international investment position: Q3 2020

January 5, 2021

In the third quarter of 2020, the current account surplus amounted to CHF 9 billion, CHF 3 billion less than in the same quarter of 2019. This decline was particularly due to the lower receipts surplus in trade in goods and services. In the case of the goods trade, the decline was attributable to gold trading. This decrease was curbed by the expenses surplus for primary and secondary income, which decreased compared to Q3 2019.
In the financial account, reported transactions in the third quarter of 2020 showed a net acquisition of financial assets (CHF 40 billion) and a net incurrence of liabilities (CHF 27 billion). The acquisition on the assets side was the result of intragroup lending (direct investment) and the SNB’s purchases of foreign currency (reserve

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance November 2020: exports are on the rise

December 17, 2020

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in November 2020: -2.7 percent YoY, -0.1 percent MoM

December 15, 2020

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in the U.S., diminished the overvaluation. In 2017, however, producer prices are rising again – in both Europe and Switzerland. See more in Is the Swiss Franc overvalued?

15.12.2020 – The Producer and Import Price Index fell by 0.1% in November 2020 compared with the previous month. The index stood at 97.9

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance October 2020: foreign trade falters

November 19, 2020

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially true. Recently Europeans started to increase their savings rate, while Americans reduced it. This has led to a rising trade and current surplus for the Europeans. But also to a massive Swiss trade surplus with the United States, that lifted Switzerland on the U.S. currency manipulation watch list.
To

Read More »

Covid, November 19: Swiss ICU numbers reach new peak as infection rate moderates

November 18, 2020

Deaths because of and with Covid19
Over the last 48 hours, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) reported a further 227 deaths among laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases, bringing the death toll to 1,654 since summer and 3,385 since the beginning of the year.
Total Covid-19 deaths in Switzerland since the beginning of the pandemic have now reached 3,696 of which 3,385 were laboratory confirmed infections.
Hospitalisations
The are currently 543 Covid-19 patients in intensive care in Switzerland, a number above the peak of 527 reached during the first wave, reported to SRF based data supplied by ICU monitoring.
Postponing regular hospital operations has so far allowed Swiss hospitals, in aggregate, to operate with some intensive care beds in reserve.

Read More »

Covid, November 16: 198 deaths in Switzerland over weekend as infection rate slows

November 16, 2020

Deaths because of and with Covid19
Over the last 72 hours, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) reported 198 deaths among laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases, bringing the death toll to 1,427 since summer and 3,158 since the beginning of the year.
Total Covid-19 deaths in Switzerland since the beginning of the pandemic have now reached 3,496 of which 3,158 were laboratory confirmed infections.
Hospitalisations
At 4,000, the number of hospitalised Covid-19 patients remains high in Switzerland, based on figures published by RTS. During the first wave, this figure peaked at 2,409.
Scaling back regular hospital operations has so far allowed Swiss hospitals, in aggregate, to avoid intensive care overload. Currently, 75% of current intensive care

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