Sunday , November 19 2017
Home / Win Thin
Win Thin

Win Thin

Win Thin is a senior currency strategist with over fifteen years of investment experience. He has a broad international background with a special interest in developing markets. Prior to joining BBH in June 2007, he founded Mandalay Advisors, an independent research firm that provided sovereign emerging market analysis to institutional investors. He received an MA from Georgetown University in 1985 and a B.A. from Brandeis University 1983. Feel free to contact the Zurich office of BBH

Articles by Win Thin

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

6 days ago

Stock Markets
EM FX closed the week on a soft note.  For the week as a whole, best performers were MYR, PLN, and COP, while the worst were BRL, ZAR, and INR.  US inflation and retail sales data will likely set the tone for EM.  Also, the US fiscal debate is set to continue this week, so expect lots of choppy trading across many markets.

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, November 13 Source: economist.com – Click to enlarge

China
China will likely report October money and loan data this week.  October retail sales and IP will be reported Tuesday.  The former is expected to rise 10.5% y/y and the latter by 6.2% y/y.  Price pressures are picking up, but we not think the PBOC will change policy for the foreseeable

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

8 days ago

Summary
China announced that it will remove foreign ownership limits on banks and other measures to open up the financial sector.
Central Bank of Turkey lowered commercial bank FX reserve requirements in an effort to support the lira.
US-Turkey relations appear to be thawing slightly.
Middle East tensions are rising on a variety of fronts.
Argentina central bank unexpectedly hiked rates again.
Former President Cardoso called on his PSDB party to quit the government coalition.
Press reports suggest that Brazil pension reform is dead in the water.
Stock Markets
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Russia (+5.3%), Korea (+4.5%), and Colombia (+3.7%) have outperformed this week, while UAE (-3.7%), Qatar (-3.1%),

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

13 days ago

Stock Markets
EM FX ended the week under pressure. News of the Venezuela debt restructuring was digested well, but sentiment went south as the day wore on.  Weakness was concentrated in the weakest links TRY, BRL, RUB, and ZAR, while MXN and COP were dragged along for the ride.  We see EM selling pressures persisting into 2018.

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, November 04 Source: economist.com – Click to enlarge

Czech Republic
Czech Republic reports September industrial and construction output, retail sales Monday.  Some slowing is expected.  It then reports October CPI Thursday, with inflation expected to remain steady at 2.7%.  If so, it would still be above the 2% target and supports the case for further

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

15 days ago

Summary
Russia’s Finance Ministry announced plans to increase its dollar. purchases in November
Bahrain has reportedly asked its Gulf allies for financial assistance.
S&P upgraded Argentina a notch to B+ with stable outlook.
Brazil raised BRL6.15 bln ($1.9 bln) by auctioning off the rights to explore 6 of the 8 deep-water oil blocks.
Venezuela bowed to the inevitable, announcing that it would have to restructure its debt.
Stock Markets
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Korea (+5.6%), Turkey (+3.7%), and Egypt (+2.7%) have outperformed this week, while Brazil (-4.6%), Colombia (-4.5%), and Mexico (-2.9%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 1.3% this week while MSCI DM rose

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

20 days ago

Stock Markets
EM FX gained some limited traction Friday but still capped off another awful week.  So far this quarter, the worst EM performers are TRY (-6%), MXN (-5%), ZAR (-4%), COP, and BRL (both -2.5%). We expect these currencies to remain under pressure as political concerns are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon.

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, October 30 Source: economist.com – Click to enlarge

South Africa
South Africa reports September budget, money, and loan data Monday.  We expect the budget numbers to continue worsening, as Finance Minister Gigaba did not set forth any serious measures to control the deficit in his mid-term budget speech last week.  Q3 unemployment and September trade will be

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

22 days ago

Summary
President Xi Jinping’s concepts of socialist thinking were written into China’s constitution.
Malaysia Prime Minister Najib presented an expansionary budget for 2018 ahead of elections.
Czech billionaire Andrej Babis’ ANO party won the elections.
South Africa’s mid-term budget statement acknowledged the deteriorating outlook but offered little in the way of solutions.
Press reports suggest Germany is working to cut funding for Turkish banks.
Argentina President Macri’s Cambiemos alliance was the winner of the congressional mid-term elections.
Argentina central bank unexpectedly hiked rates by 150 bp.
Brazil’s lower house voted not to advance the corruption charges against President Temer.
Banco de Mexico

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

27 days ago

Stock Markets
EM FX ended the week on a soft note. Indeed, nearly every EM currency was down for the entire week, led by ZAR, BRL, and TRY. While higher US rates will pressure EM FX as a whole, we think heightend political risk will continue to hit these three currencies particularly hard, plus perhaps MXN too.

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, October 21 Source: economist.com – Click to enlarge

Korea
Korea reports trade data for the first 20 days of October Monday. It then reports Q3 GDP Thursday, which is expected to grow 3.0% y/y vs. 2.7% in Q2. The economic outlook is solid, while price pressures remain low. For now, the BOK can take a wait and see approach and keep rates steady well into 2018.
Singapore

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

October 16, 2017

Stock Markets
EM FX closed the week on a firm note, as softer than expected US CPI data weighed on the dollar. We continue to believe that investors are underestimating the Fed’s tightening potential. Meanwhile, idiosyncratic political risk remains high for MXN, TRY, and ZAR.

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, October 14 Source: economist.com – Click to enlarge

China
China reports CPI and PPI Monday. The former is expected to rise 1.6% y/y and the latter by 6.4% y/y. The 19th CPC National Congress begins Wednesday. China then reports September retail sales, IP, and Q3 GDP Thursday. The y/y readings are expected at 10.2%, 6.4% y/y, and 6.8% y/y, respectively. Over the weekend, China reported stronger than expected

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

October 14, 2017

Summary
Thailand announced general elections will be held in November 2018.
Czech police filed criminal charges against ANO leader Andrej Babis.
South Africa President Zuma may face corruption charges that were previously dropped.
The US suspended visa services for travelers from Turkey.
Kenyan opposition candidate Odinga withdrew from a redo of the annulled presidential election.
Saudi Arabia will take a more gradual approach to removing fuel subsidies.
Former Mexican First Lady Zavala said she’s leaving PAN to run as an independent.
Stock Markets
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Hungary (+2.8%), Qatar (+2.6%), and Taiwan (+2.5%) have outperformed this week, while Mexico (-1.3%), Egypt (-0.8%), and

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

October 9, 2017

Stock Markets
EM FX ended the week under pressure, as US data points to a rate hike in December and perhaps more in 2018. FOMC minutes this Wednesday will be closely studied for clues. US retail sales and CPI data Friday will also be important. We believe the most vulnerable currencies in this environment are ZAR and TRY, but one could also add MXN and perhaps RUB to that mix too.

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, October 07 Source: economist.com – Click to enlarge

China
China reports September foreign reserves Monday, which are expected to tick up to $3.1 trln. Money and new loan data could come out this week, but no date has been set. Trade data will be reported Friday. Exports are expected to rise 9.8% y/y

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

October 7, 2017

Stock Markets
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, China (+4.1%), South Africa (+3.2%), and Hungary (+2.4%) have outperformed this week, while Egypt (-2.8%), Qatar (-2.7%), and Mexico (-1.7%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 1.9% this week while MSCI DM rose 0.6%.
 
In the EM local currency bond space, Argentina (10-year yield -13 bp), Nigeria (-5 bp), and Thailand (-4 bp) have outperformed this week, while Mexico (10-year yield +20 bp), Brazil (+17 bp), and Poland (+14 bp) have underperformed. To put this in better context, the 10-year UST yield rose 4 bp to 2.38%.
 
In the EM FX space, CLP (+0.8% vs. USD), CZK (+0.4% vs. EUR), and ILS (+0.3% vs. USD) have outperformed this

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

October 2, 2017

Stock Markets
EM FX firmed Friday, but capped off a bad week overall. US jobs data this Friday is unlikely to provide much clarity on Fed policy, though we think it remains on track to hike again in December. The Fed’s balance sheet reduction will start this month. We remain negative on EM, and believe selling pressures are likely to persist in Q4.

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, October 02 Source: economist.com – Click to enlarge

Thailand
Thailand reports September CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 0.5% y/y vs. 0.3% in August. If so, it would still be well below the 1-4% target range. Some analysts are calling for an eventual rate cut, but we believe steady rates will be seen for the foreseeable future.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

September 30, 2017

Summary
India Prime Minister Modi announced an INR163.2 bln program to deliver electricity to all households.
Poland’s President Duda is trying to reach a compromise on judicial reforms.
Fitch raised the outlook on Russia’s BBB- rating from stable to positive.
Saudi Arabia announced it will remove the ban on women driving.
South Africa’s biggest labor organization stepped up its opposition to President Zuma.
Turkey is planning to hike taxes on a variety of sectors and products
Argentina may allow short selling in the equity market.
Brazil successfully completed several power and oil auctions.
Stock Markets
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Russia (+1.8%), Peru (+1.3%), and Thailand (+0.6%) have

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

September 25, 2017

Stock Markets
EM FX was mostly firmer on Friday, but capped off a week of broad-based losses. US rates gave back some of post-FOMC rise, and that weighed on the dollar. Not much in the way of US data until Friday’s core PCE reading and Chicago PMI.

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, September 20 Source: economist.com – Click to enlarge

Singapore
Singapore reports August CPI Monday, which is expected to remain steady at 0.6% y/y. It then reports August IP Tuesday, which is expected to rise 14.3% y/y vs. 21% in July. MAS holds its semiannual policy meeting in October. No change in policy is seen. In addition, we think it’s unlikely that the statement language is adjusted to signal possible tightening at the April

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

September 16, 2017

Summary:
China plans to issue its first USD-denominated bond since 2004.
China’s largest banks banned North Koreans from opening new accounts.
The UN Security Council approved new sanctions on North Korea.
Relations between Poland and the European Commission remain tense.
Brazil’s central bank appears to be signaling discomfort with ongoing BRL strength.
Brazil President Temer faces a second set of criminal charges.
Peru’s entire cabinet resigned after losing a confidence vote in Congress.
Stock Markets
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Czech Republic (+2.7%), China (+2.4%), and Korea (+2.3%) have outperformed this week, while Qatar (-2.0%), Singapore (-0.9%), and Egypt (-0.7%) have underperformed. To put

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview for the Week Ahead

September 11, 2017

Stock Markets
EM FX ended the week on a mixed note, but still capped off a strong week overall. US data this week could challenge the market’s dovish take on the Fed. For now, though, the global liquidity outlook still seems to favor further gains in EM.

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, September 11 Source: economist.com – Click to enlarge

China
China should report August new loan and money supply data this week, but no date is set. New loans are expected at CNY950 bln vs. CNY826 bln in July. China reports August retail sales and IP Thursday. The former is expected to rise 10.5% y/y and the latter by 6.6% y/y.
Czech Republic
Czech Republic reports August CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 2.6% y/y vs. 2.5%

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

September 9, 2017

Summary: 
South Korea completed installation of the THAAD missile shield.
Indonesia is considering issuing its first global IDR-denominated sovereign bonds.
Taiwan is undergoing a cabinet shuffle.
Brazil has seen some positive political developments.
Brazil’s central bank signaled that the easing cycle is nearing an end and that the pace of easing will slow.
Chile’s central bank boosted its growth forecasts.
Stock Markets
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Brazil (+3.1%), Russia (+1.8%), and Colombia (+1.3%) have outperformed this week, while South Africa (-2.0%), Poland (-2.0%), and Turkey (-1.9%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 0.1% this week while MSCI DM was flat.
In

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

September 2, 2017

Summary
India Prime Minister Modi has started a cabinet shuffle.
Freeport McMorAn ceded control of the world’s second largest copper mine to the Indonesian government.
Central Bank of Russia took over Bank Otkritie, once Russia’s largest private bank.
Kenya’s top court nullified last month’s presidential election.
Fitch cut Qatar’s rating by one notch to AA- with negative outlook.
Chile’s economic team saw a big shake-up.
Banco de Mexico boosted its growth forecasts in the latest quarterly inflation report.
Stock Markets

In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Egypt (+4.8%), Russia (+4.1%), and Thailand (+3.0%) have outperformed this week, while Czech Republic (-1.5%), Mexico (-1.5%), and Indonesia (-1.3%)

Read More »

Emerging Market: Preview of the Week Ahead

August 28, 2017

Stock Markets
EM FX ended last week on a strong note, buoyed by perceived dovishness from Yellen at the Jackson Hole symposium. However, US jobs data this Friday could test the market’s convictions. Within EM, data are likely to support our view that EM central banks can retain their largely dovish posture into 2018.

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, August 23 Source: economist.com – Click to enlarge

Mexico
Mexico reports July trade Monday, with a deficit of -$1.04 bln expected. Export growth was 11.5% y/y in June, driven by gains in both manufacturing and petroleum shipments. Import growth has lagged, leading the 12-month trade deficit to narrow over the past several months.
Turkey
Turkey reports July

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

August 12, 2017

Summary:
Tensions on the Korean peninsula are still rising. 
Hong Kong boosted its 2017 growth forecast.
S&P affirmed Israel’s A+ rating but moved the outlook from stable to positive.
The corruption investigation against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has intensified.
South Africa’s parliament voted down the no confidence motion against President Zuma. 
Argentina officials are taking steps to support the peso. 
Banco de Mexico has ended its tightening cycle.
Stock Markets
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Peru (+1.8%), Czech Republic (+0.7%), and Hungary (+0.5%) have outperformed this week, while India (-3.9%), Korea (-3.5%), and Hong Kong (-2.1%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI

Read More »

Emerging Markets: The Week Ahead

August 7, 2017

Stock Markets
EM FX appears to be rolling over (see our recent piece “Is EM FX Finally Turning?”). Technical indicators are stretched as many EM currencies bump up against strong resistance levels. Strong US jobs data is bringing Fed tightening back into focus. We think ZAR could be shaping up to be the canary in a coalmine.  It was -3% vs. USD last week and by far the worst in EM.

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, August 2nd Source: economist.com – Click to enlarge

Indonesia
Indonesia reports Q2 GDP Monday, which is expected to grow 5.08% y/y vs. 5.01% in Q1. However, officials appear to be getting more concerned about growth. Bank Indonesia just turned more dovish after signaling that the easing cycle had ended.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

August 5, 2017

Summary
The Reserve Bank of India started an easing cycle by cutting all policy rates 25 bp.
Bank Indonesia has tilted more dovish after signaling earlier this year that the easing cycle was over.
Czech National Bank became the first in Europe to hike.
Political risk is rising in Israel.
President Trump signed the Russia sanctions bill.
Nigeria is trying to unify its system of multiple exchange rates.
Brazil President Temer survived a lower house vote that sought to put him on trial for corruption.
Fitch moves its outlook on Mexico’s BBB+ rating from negative to stable.
The US put sanctions on Venezuelan President Maduro.
Stock Markets
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Hungary (+2.9%), Brazil (+2.4%), and

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

July 31, 2017

Stock Markets
EM FX was mixed last week, as markets await fresh drivers. Jobs report this Friday could provide greater clarity with regards to Fed policy. BOE and RBA meet but aren’t expected to change policy. Data is likely to reinforce the notion that inflation remains low in EM, allowing those central banks to remain dovish. Czech National Bank is the main exception, as it may start the tightening cycle this week.

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, July 29 – Click to enlarge

China
China reports official July PMI readings Monday, with manufacturing expected at 51.5 vs. 51.7 in June. Caixin manufacturing PMI will come out a day later, and is expected to remain steady at 50.4. CNY was one of the best EM

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

July 29, 2017

Summary
Indonesia’s parliament approved a revised budget for 2017 that sees a wider deficit.
Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ousted Prime Minister Sharif.
Polish President Duda vetoed portions of the judicial reform bill submitted by the Law and Justice party.
The European Commission (EC) is preparing possible sanctions against Poland.
The US House of Representatives voted to impose new sanctions against Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
Brazil President Temer’s approval rating dropped to a record low..
World Bank’s IFC issued its first sol-denominated global bond
Stock Markets
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, China (+1.4%), Indonesia (+1.3%), and Peru (+1.3%) have outperformed this week, while Korea (-2.9%),

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

July 24, 2017

Stock Markets
EM FX was mixed on Friday, but largely firmer over the entire week. Top performers were BRL, KRW, and ZAR, while the worst were ARS, MXN, and RUB. FOMC meeting this week poses some potential risks to the global liquidity story that’s supporting EM. Within EM, the low inflation/easy monetary policy narrative should continue with data and events this week.

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, July 22 – Click to enlarge

Singapore
Singapore reports June CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 0.7% y/y vs. 1.4% in May. It then reports June IP Wednesday, which is expected to rise 6.5% y/y vs. 5.0% in May. Price pressures remain low while the real sector has been a bit sluggish. As such, the MAS may maintain its

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

July 22, 2017

Summary
South Korea proposed resuming military and humanitarian exchanges with North Korea.
The European Union may sanction Poland over its controversial judicial overhaul.
Turkish Prime Minister Yildirim announced a cabinet shuffle after meeting with President Erdogan.
Turkey’s worsening relations with Germany will come with economic costs.
South African Reserve Bank surprised markets by starting the easing cycle with a 25 bp cut to 7.0%.
Brazil will raise fuel taxes and freeze spending in an effort to meet its fiscal targets
S&P raised the outlook on Mexico’s BBB+ rating from negative to stable.

Stock Markets

In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, South Africa (+1.8%), Chile (+1.6%), and China (+1.5%) have

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

July 17, 2017

Stock Markets
EM FX ended the week on a firm note, helped by softer than expected US data.  Indeed, EM FX was up across the board for the entire week and was led by BRL, MXN, and ZAR. The ECB meeting this week will draw some interest, especially after the BOC last week became the second major central bank to hike rates.

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, July 05 Source: economist.com – Click to enlarge

Hungary
National Bank of Hungary meets Tuesday and is expected to keep policy steady. The bank has been loosening policy quarterly via unconventional measures, which it just did at its June meeting. Further easing is possible at the September meeting. CPI rose only 1.9% y/y in June, the lowest since December and

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

July 15, 2017

Summary
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif may face trial on corruption charges.
Turkey will reportedly pay $2.5 bln for a Russian missile defense system.
Nigeria said it was willing to cap its oil production to support OPEC efforts to cut global supply.
Former Brazilian President Lula was sentenced to nine and half years in prison on corruption charges.
S&P downgraded Chile one notch to A+ with a stable outlook.
A consortium of three private companies discovered 1.4-2.0 bln barrels of new oil in Mexico.
S&P downgraded Venezuela by a notch to CCC- and kept the negative outlook.
Stock Markets
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Brazil (+8.5%), Qatar (+6.6%), and Egypt (+5.8%) have outperformed this week,

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

June 12, 2017

Stock Markets

EM FX was mixed last week but in general held up well in the aftermath of Super Thursday. The global backdrop seems relatively benign right now despite the FOMC meeting this week. We still think investors have to be picky.

TRY, ZAR, and BRL at current levels seem too rich given the underlying risks in all three. On the flip side, we think China is looking stable right now and should help Emerging Asia’s outlook near-term.
 

Stock Markets Emerging Markets, June 07 Source: economist.com – Click to enlarge

China

China will report May money and new loan data sometime this week. No date has been specified, but these series are expected to show some modest slowing from April. May IP and retail

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

June 10, 2017

Summary:
The Reserve Bank of India cut its inflation forecast for FY2017/18.
South Korean President Moon suspended the installation of the remaining components of the THAAD missile shield.
S&P cut Qatar one notch to AA-.
Turkey looks likely to get caught up in yet another regional conflict.
Brazil’s structural reform agenda has been delayed as President Temer remains on the ropes.
Stock Markets
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Peru (+2.9%), China (+2.5%), and Poland (+1.5%) have outperformed this week, while Qatar (-6.1%), South Africa (-1.7%), and Indonesia (-1.5%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 0.6% this week while MSCI DM fell -0.4%.

In the EM local currency bond

Read More »