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Joaquin Monfort



Articles by Joaquin Monfort

Swiss Franc at risk as inflation diverges from SNB forecasts

March 16, 2024

Swiss Franc is vulnerable as inflation data continues to undershoot official forecasts. 
The SNB expected inflation to average 1.9% in 2024 in its December forecast, but it currently sits at 1.2%. 
The latest Producer and Import Prices showed the tenth month of deflation in a row. 
The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades flat at the end of the trading week – off by barely a few hundredths of a percent in its most traded pairs. The overal fundamental outlook is not particulay favourable for CHF given Swiss inflation continues to decline and diverge from official estimates. This suggests the Swiss National Bank may need to ease policy, a generally negative factor for the currency as it attracts lower inflows of foreign capital. 

In its latest

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EUR/CHF Price Analysis: Pullback possible amid mixed signals

March 12, 2024

EUR/CHF touches 50-week SMA and recoils
RSI on daily chart indicates possibility of a pullback. 
Symmetrical Triangle has formed on 4-hour chart with breakout likely. 
EUR/CHF has rebounded from the 0.9254 December 2023 lows and rallied up to resistance from a key barrier in the form of the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). The pair is probably still in a long-term downtrend despite recent strength.

Euro to Swiss Franc: Weekly chart
The price has respected the red 50-week SMA on the multiple prior occasions it touched it during its downtrend. This reinforces the level’s strength as a resistance point. It probably indicates the price is about to pullback. There is a good chance it could correct back to the level of the trendline at around 0.9500 for a retest.

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Swiss Franc extends losses on Swiss interest rate outlook

March 6, 2024

The Swiss Franc edges lower against the US Dollar on the back of relatively low inflation in Switzerland, which indicates interest rates remaining low. 
SNB’s Jordan says Swiss Franc rising in real terms is hurting Swiss exporters, SNB unlikely to pursue CHF-strengthening policies. 
USD/CHF hits resistance at falling trendline, 50-week SMA. 
The Swiss Franc (CHF) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as traders continue to bet on a less-inflationary outlook for Switzerland, supporting a relatively low interest rate policy and dampening foreign capital inflows.
Inflation figures from Switzerland’s Federal Statistics Office released on Monday showed prices rising 1.2% in February, down from the 1.3% increase in January. Whilst not as low as the 1.1%

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