SNB & CHF

The US nonfarm payroll report typically dominates the first Friday a new month.  In recent years, it has become among the most important economic reports globally.  Not today.   The market's focus has shifted from Chinese stocks and yuan that dominated the first week or so, then oil, and now it is heightened concern about a US recession.  This means there is likely to be an asymmetrical response to the jobs report.  Stronger than expected data is unlikely to deter those who think the US...

Extreme skier Samuel Anthamatten skies in places that would scare most people. The man from Zermatt is among the most successful of his ilk, but he also knows when to apply the brakes. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch or subscribe to our YouTube channel:...

Keynes and others may have referred to gold as a barbarous relic, but many investors continue to track it.  In early January, we warned that gold appeared to be breaking out of a short-term bottoming pattern.It had taken out a three-month downtrend line, which we suggested was part of a triangle pattern.  Gold also traced out a double bottom pattern.  The triangle pattern pointed to a move toward $1110 and the double bottom projected to around $1135.   The yellow metal poked through $1157...

Sterling has neared the 50% retracement of the 11.5 cent decline since mid-December.  It is found near $1.4660.  After easing ahead of the BOE announcement, sterling was sold to $1.4530 on the initial headlines that showed the BOE was cutting its growth, inflation, and wage forecasts.    However, the short-sterling futures had already largely discounted the rates being low for longer, and UK debt instruments also sold off, and after the initial flurry, sterling stabilized and recovered...

The US dollar remains under broad pressure after yesterday's sharp decline.  Neither dovish comments by ECB President Draghi, nor the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have managed to reverse the gains of their respective currencies.   Similar, the rise in US yields and firm equities have failed to push the yen lower.  Investors and policymakers are trying to link news developments to the price action, but it seems to be a bit of a stretch.  It is true that NY Fed President Dudley, who had...

Apparently, when Irish eyes are smiling, it’s time to call an election. And that is what Prime Minister Kenny has done.  The election will be held on February 26.  The polls suggest that the governing coalition (Fine Gael and Labour) may struggle to secure a majority.   In some ways, Kenny is making the same bet as Spain's Rajoy.  The economy's strength will provide a lift on election day.  It has not worked out so well for Rajoy though Kenny may have greater success.  However, this is...

Marc attributes Euro strength and dollar weakness to the unwinding of the carry trade. With continued monetary divergence Marc expects the dollar to regain it's footing into the March ECB meeting. Marc believes there will be no Plaza Accord 2.0 and the Saudi's will not de-peg from the dollar.

As we noted last night, in what was the second clear example of sheer desperation by the Bank of Japan, the central banker formerly known as Peter Pan for his on the record belief that "he should fly", and as of this morning better known as Peter Panic, desperately tried to pull of his best "Draghi", up to and even stealing the ECB's trademark catch phrase, to wit: KURODA: POSSIBLE TO CUT NEGATIVE RATE FURTHER IF NEEDED KURODA: NO LIMIT TO MONETARY EASING MEASURES KURODA: WILL EXPAND EASING...

Marc attributes Euro strength and dollar weakness to the unwinding of the carry trade. With continued monetary divergence Marc expects the dollar to regain it's footing into the March ECB meeting. Marc believes there will be no Plaza Accord 2.0 and the Saudi's will not de-peg from the dollar.

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