Every time interest rates rise, the "bond bears" flood the media with commentary suggesting US Treasuries are no longer a "safe asset."

The 30-year Treasury bond closed last Thursday at 5.17%. Meanwhile, the 10-year touched 4.71%, its highest print since January 2025, while Brent crude pushed above $100 as the Iran conflict escalated. Add a Fed meeting this week, and right on schedule, the Treasury safe asset debate reopened. A careful new paper from Hanno Lustig and three coauthors is now getting cited as proof that the world’s reserve asset is finished. I’ve read the paper, and it is good work. It also doesn’t say what most of the people quoting it think it says.

Start With What The Tape Actually Did

Between June 26 and July 23, the long bond repriced

Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report

CFNAI Index Suggests Economy Is Slowing

How We Are Trading It

Research Report – CAPE-5, A Better Measure

Youtube – Before The Bell

Market Statistics

Stock Screens

Portfolio Trades This Week

February Weakness And The Outlook For March

Last week, we discussed that continued bullish exuberance and high levels of complacency can quickly turn into volatility. Over the previous week, the market fell sharply following news of a potential viral outbreak in China and more concerns about tariffs from the Trump Administration. While those were the headlines that gained the market’s attention, the reality was that the market was overbought and on a sell signal, setting the market up for pullback. The correction was not

One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE. Valuations have always been, and remain, an essential variable in long-term investing returns. Or, as Warren Buffett once quipped:

“Price Is What You Pay. Value Is What You Get.”

One of the hallmarks of very late-stage bull market cycles is the inevitable bashing of long-term valuation metrics. In the late 90s, if you were buying shares of Berkshire Hathaway, it was mocked as “driving Dad’s old Pontiac.” In 2007, valuation metrics were dismissed because the markets were flush with liquidity, low interest rates, and “Subprime was contained.”

Today, we again see repeated arguments about why “this time is different” because of

One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE. Valuations have always been, and remain, an essential variable in long-term investing returns. Or, as Warren Buffett once quipped:

“Price Is What You Pay. Value Is What You Get.”

One of the hallmarks of very late-stage bull market cycles is the inevitable bashing of long-term valuation metrics. In the late 90s, if you were buying shares of Berkshire Hathaway, it was mocked as “driving Dad’s old Pontiac.” In 2007, valuation metrics were dismissed because the markets were flush with liquidity, low interest rates, and “Subprime was contained.”

Today, we again see repeated arguments about why “this time is different” because of

Just recently, S&P Global released its 2026 earnings estimates, which, for lack of a better word, have gone parabolic. Such should not be surprising given the ongoing exuberance on Wall Street. As noted last week, correlations between all asset classes, whether international or emerging markets, gold or bitcoin, have all gone to one. Unsurprisingly, rationalizations justify illogic when too much money is chasing too few assets.

Therefore, it should not be surprising to see analysts ramping up estimates to rationalize or justify overvaluations in the market. The chart below shows earnings’ long-term growth. Notably, analysts expect a record deviation above earnings’ long-term exponential growth trend of $195/share and above the 6% peak-to-peak historical growth

Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report

The Stability-Instability Paradox

How We Are Trading It

Research Report – Tariffs Are Not As Bearish As Headlines Suggest

Youtube – Before The Bell

Market Statistics

Stock Screens

Portfolio Trades This Week

Market Shakes Off Inflation Data

I am back from traveling, and we have a good bit to catch up on since our last report. If you missed it, I provided an update on Tuesday, updating all the weekly technical and statistical data we produce. Most noteworthy in that report was the sharp increase in money flows into the market despite the tariff announcement by the Trump administration and the latest inflation reports.

On Thursday, the market broke out of the bullish consolidation over the last few weeks,

There are many media-driven narratives about the impact of tariffs on the economy and the markets. Most of them are incredibly bearish, predicting the absolute worst possible outcomes. For fun, I asked ChatGPT what the expected impact of Trump’s tariffs will likely be. Here is the answer:

"One of the immediate consequences of increased tariffs is higher consumer prices. Tariffs function as an import tax, and companies that rely on foreign goods often pass these costs onto consumers. This could lead to higher inflation, particularly in electronics, automobiles, and household goods, where China plays a dominant role in supply chains.

Over the longer term, Trump’s tariffs could contribute to stagflation—lower economic growth combined with persistent

I could not produce our weekly Bull Bear Report this past weekend as I presented at Michael Campbell’s Moneytalks Conference in Vancouver. However, I wanted to use today’s technical update to review some of the statistical analysis we produce each week in that commentary. Such is mainly the case given last Monday’s "tariff" shock and Friday’s employment report. (Subscribe for free to the weekly Bull Bear Report.)

It was a second volatile week of trading, which was unsurprising given the news flow. However, despite the volatility, the market continues to hold support within the current bullish trend. The market is not overbought, and the money flow remains strongly positive.

F.O.M.O. Is Alive And Well

The market defies more negative news because retail

The Federal Reserve’s record of forecasting has frequently led it to respond too late to changes in economic and financial conditions. In the most recent FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve changed its statement to support a pause in the current interest rate-cutting cycle. As noted by Forbes:

"The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee agreed unanimously to hold the target federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, the U.S. central bank announced Wednesday afternoon following the conclusion of the FOMC’s two-day meeting. The pause breaks a three-meeting streak of cuts dating back to September, when the Fed rolled out its first rate cut since March 2020.

The FOMC announcement noted unemployment “has stabilized at a low level” and “inflation remains somewhat

Over the weekend, President Trump announced tariffs of 25% on both Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China. Such was not unexpected, as contained in the Trump tariff Executive Order {SEE HERE}. Specifically, that order stated:

"[Sec 2, SubSection (h)]: Sec. 2. (a) All articles that are products of Canada as defined by the Federal Register notice described in subsection (e) of this section (Federal Register notice), and except for those products described in subsection (b) of this section, shall be, consistent with law, subject to an additional 25 percent ad valorem rate of duty. Such rate of duty shall apply with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern time on February 4,

I never thought someone would label me a "Permabull." This is particularly true of the numerous articles I wrote over the years about the risks of excess valuations, monetary interventions, and artificially suppressed interest rates. However, here we are.

"Lance, you are just another permabull talking your book. When this market crashes you will still be telling people to buy all the way down."

I get it. We have been bullish over the last couple of years, but suggesting that we will always be bullish is a misstatement. For example, in January 2020, we wrote two articles explaining why we were reducing risk.

"When you sit down with your portfolio management team, and the first comment made is “this is nuts,” it’s probably time to think about your overall

While analysts are currently very optimistic about the market, the combined risk of high valuations and the need to rebalance portfolios in the short term may pose an unanticipated threat. This is particularly the case given the current high degree of speculation and leverage in the market. It is fascinating how quickly people forget the painful beating of taking on excess risk and revert to the same thesis of why "this time is different." For example, I recently posted on "X," which showed a visual of the 2021 market surge versus 2023-2024. While this time is may be different, don’t be surprised if it ends the same.

One of the near-term risks to more bullish investors is the combination of high stock valuations and the necessity of portfolio rebalancing,

Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report

2025 – Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks

How We Are Trading It

Research Report -The Kalecki Profit Equation And The Coming Reversion

Youtube – Before The Bell

Market Statistics

Stock Screens

Portfolio Trades This Week

Everybody Is Very Bullish

Last week, we discussed how speculation and leverage have returned in earnest to the market as investors rush to take on increasing levels of risk. With markets rising steadily all year, it is unsurprising to witness investors lulled into an elevated sense of complacency. Stocks, bitcoin, leveraged investments, and meme stocks are all surging higher, which is certainly reminiscent of the "madness" we witnessed following the Covid lockdowns. I posted the

Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify. As discussed in last week’s #BullBearReport, leverage and speculation are at the heart of many such cycles. These two powerful forces support the amplification of gains during upswings but can accelerate losses in downturns. Today’s market environment shows growing signs of these behaviors, particularly in options trading and leveraged single-stock ETFs.

While leverage and speculation are not new to the financial markets, they manifest investor exuberance. We made this point in a recent post on "Exuberance," as consumer confidence in higher stock prices has reached the highest level since President Trump enacted sweeping tax cuts in

Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report

Extreme Speculation Has Returned

How We Are Trading It

Research Report -Trumpflation Risks Likely Overstated

Youtube – Before The Bell

Market Statistics

Stock Screens

Portfolio Trades This Week

A Note Of Thanksgiving

While belated, we sincerely hope you had a happy and fulfilling Thanksgiving holiday. In the words of Henry David Thoreau,

“I am grateful for what I am and have. My Thanksgiving is perpetual.”

All of us at RIA Advisors and Real Investment Advice are grateful for you, our readers, this holiday season. I never imagined that when I started publishing at the beginning of this century, it would have evolved into all the things it has. However, that success is all a function of you, your loyal

Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often involves Treasury bonds (considered risk-free) and corporate bonds (which carry default risk). By observing these spreads, investors can gauge risk appetite in financial markets. Such helps investors identify stress points that often precede stock market corrections.

The chart shows the annual rate of change in the S&P 500 market index versus the yield spread between Moody’s Baa corporate bond index (investment grade) and the 10-year US Treasury Bond yield. Rising yield spreads consistently coincide with lower

Following President Trump’s re-election, the S&P 500 has seen an impressive surge, climbing past 6,000 and sparking significant optimism in the financial markets. Unsurprisingly, the rush by perma-bulls to make long-term predictions is remarkable. For example, Economist Ed Yardeni believes this upward momentum will continue and has revised his long-term forecast, projecting that the S&P 500 will reach 10,000 by 2029. His forecast reflects a mix of factors that he believes are reigniting investor confidence, including tax cuts, deregulation, and advancements in technology that could drive productivity growth.

The chart shows the current bull market from the 2009 lows to the present, with a 12-month moving average and a trend channel extension into 2030. While

Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report

"Trump Trade" Sends Investors Into Overdrive

How We Are Trading It

Research Report -Paul Tudor Jones – I Won’t Own Bonds

Youtube – Before The Bell

Market Statistics

Stock Screens

Portfolio Trades This Week

A Pause That Refreshes?

Last week, we discussed that with the election over and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, many market headwinds were put behind us. To wit;

"As a result, the market surged higher, hitting our year-end target of 6000 on Friday. Furthermore, since election day, the "RE-risking" rally reversed the short-term sell signal, supporting higher prices. As we stated over the last few weeks, despite the many media-driven narratives, the underpinnings of the market remained bullish,

Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board’s Sentiment Index. To wit:

"Consumer confidence in higher stock prices in the next year remains at the highest since 2018, following the 2017 “Trump” tax cuts." (Note: this survey was completed before the Presidential Election.)

We also discussed households’ allocations to equities, which, according to Federal Reserve data, have reached the highest levels on record.

In that article, we discussed the risk associated with high levels of investor exuberance.

"Risk isn’t always what it seems. When the market feels the safest, that’s often when it’s often the riskiest. Think about it —

Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board’s Sentiment Index. To wit:

“Consumer confidence in higher stock prices in the next year remains at the highest since 2018, following the 2017 “Trump” tax cuts.“ (Note: this survey was completed before the Presidential Election.)

We also discussed households’ allocations to equities, which, according to Federal Reserve data, have reached the highest levels on record.

In that article, we discussed the risk associated with high levels of investor exuberance.

“Risk isn’t always what it seems. When the market feels the safest, that’s often when it’s often the riskiest. Think about it —

The prospect of a Trump presidency has led to much debate and speculation about how markets might react. Depending on what policies are eventually passed, there are potential risks and opportunities in both the stock and bond markets. While the market surged immediately following the election, many potential future headwinds may impact returns from economic growth, monetary and fiscal policy, and geopolitical events.

Here are some quick thoughts about what we at RIA Advisors think about the stock and bond markets in 2025.

Stock Markets

Upside Potential: During the Trump presidency, he will focus on ensuring the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, passed in 2017, does not sunset in 2025, which will keep corporate tax rates at 21%. However, it is not unlikely that he

Key market indicators for November 2024 present a complex but opportunity-filled environment for traders and investors. Following the first phase of Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing global uncertainties, the technical landscape suggests several notable shifts. Let’s explore the key market indicators to watch.

Note: If you are unfamiliar with basic technical analysis, this video is a short tutorial.

[embedded content]
Seasonality and Breakout Patterns

As discussed recently, Seasonality is a crucial key market trend in November. Historically, the stock market transitions from the weaker summer months into a stronger end-of-year rally, often dubbed the “Santa Claus Rally,” beginning mid-December. On a rolling 6-month basis, November to April has both

I was emailed several times about a recent Morningstar article about J.P. Morgan’s warning of lower forward returns over the next decade. That was followed up by numerous emails about Goldman Sachs’ recent warnings of 3% annualized returns over the next decade.

While we have previously covered many of these article’s points, a comprehensive analysis is needed. Let’s start with the overall conclusion from JP Morgan’s article:

“The investment bank’s models show the average calendar-year return for the S&P 500 could shrink to 5.7%, roughly half the level since World War II. Millennials and Generation Z might not enjoy the robust returns from U.S. stocks that helped swell the retirement accounts of their parents and grandparents.”

While such a statement

In the movies, greed is a trait often exhibited by the rich and powerful as a means to an end. Of particular note is the famous quote from Michael Douglas in the 1987 movie classic “Wall Street:”

“The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right, greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind.”

While greed is necessary to build wealth, excessive greed often has far more terrible consequences when investing.

Few stories are as staggering or cautionary as this one. An investor turned an $88,000 investment into a mind-boggling $415 million

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released its second-quarter GDP report for 2024, showcasing a 2.96% growth rate. This number has sparked discussions among investors and analysts, particularly those predicting an imminent recession. There are certainly many supportive data points that have historically predicted recessionary downturns. The reversal of the yield curve inversion, the 6-month rate of change in the leading economic index, and most recently, consumer confidence warn of a recessionary onset.

However, despite these warning signs, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience, defying many bearish forecasts. This article will explore the recent GDP report, the risks to continued growth, and potential investing opportunities.

Defying

When most people hear the word “risk,” they think about wild market swings, scary headlines, and losing money overnight, but Howard Marks, Co-Chairman and Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital Management, takes a different approach. In his new video series How to Think About Risk, Marks digs deep into what risk is and how investors should handle it. Spoiler alert: It’s not just about volatility.

The CFA Institute recently summarized the video stream, but I wanted to elaborate on some of Howard Mark’s views.

Let’s break down some key lessons from Marks that can help you rethink your investing approach to risk.

Risk Isn’t Just Volatility

One of the biggest takeaways from Marks’ series is the idea that risk and volatility aren’t the same thing. For years, many

As the November 2024 election draws near, the election outcome will profoundly affect the financial markets. Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the presidency, each administration will bring distinct policies creating investment opportunities and potential risks for investors. With a divisive political landscape, it is crucial to understand how these potential outcomes can shape the stock market and your portfolio strategy.

Let’s break down the key sectors that stand to gain from a Trump or Harris presidency and explore the risks investors should be aware of heading into this election outcome.

Investment Opportunities in a Trump Presidency

Energy & Fossil Fuels

If Trump wins, that election outcome will likely favor the traditional energy

We are currently in the “everything market.” It doesn’t matter what you have probably invested in; it is currently increasing in value. However, it isn’t likely for the reasons you think. A recent Marketwatch interview with the always bullish Jim Paulson got his reasoning for the rally.

“It is this cocktail of ‘full support’ at the front end of a bull market which commonly has created an ‘Everything Market’ during the early part of a new bull. That is, for a period, almost everything simultaneously rises – value, growth, small, large, defensive, and cyclical stocks – and usually by a lot.

Short rates are falling, bond yields have declined, money growth is rising, fiscal stimulus has again expanded, and disinflation is still evident; and because of this

Last week, the Federal Reserve made a significant move by cutting its overnight lending rate by 50 basis points. This marks the first rate cut since 2020, signaling the Fed is aggressively supporting the economy amid a backdrop of softening economic data. For investors, understanding how similar rate cuts have historically impacted markets and which sectors tend to benefit is key to navigating the months ahead.

In this post, we will explore the historical market performance following similar 50-basis-point rate cuts, highlight the best-performing sectors and market factors after such cuts, and outline three critical risks investors should be aware of heading into year-end.

Historical Outcomes To Rate Cuts

A 50-basis-point rate cut, especially the first

It certainly seems that technological advances make our lives better. Instead of writing a letter, stamping it, and mailing it (which was vastly more personal), we now send emails. Rather than driving to a local retailer or manufacturer, we order it online. Of course, we mustn’t dismiss the rise of social media, which connects us to everyone and everything more than ever.

Economists and experts have long argued that technological advances drive U.S. economic growth and productivity. As innovations emerge, they play a crucial role in shaping the economy, improving efficiency, and enhancing productivity across various sectors. From artificial intelligence to automation, the benefits of technological progress are widespread and profound.

For example,