The combination of extremely rich equity valuations, high interest rates, and a new President taking bold actions will likely continue to whip stocks around for the foreseeable future. Alongside those volatility-provoking factors is that the S&P 500 just posted two annual twenty-plus percent gains in a row. Accordingly, seeing average or below-average returns this year and volatility spikes should not be surprising. If we are correct about volatility, it’s entirely possible that our worst behavioral traits as investors will be provoked. Given this possibility, it’s worth taking a break from our typical market or economic topics and focusing on behavioral economics.

Turn on CNBC or Bloomberg, and commentators discuss the economy, corporate earnings, and

The combination of extremely rich equity valuations, high interest rates, and a new President taking bold actions will likely continue to whip stocks around for the foreseeable future. Alongside those volatility-provoking factors is that the S&P 500 just posted two annual twenty-plus percent gains in a row. Accordingly, seeing average or below-average returns this year and volatility spikes should not be surprising. If we are correct about volatility, it’s entirely possible that our worst behavioral traits as investors will be provoked. Given this possibility, it’s worth taking a break from our typical market or economic topics and focusing on behavioral economics.

Turn on CNBC or Bloomberg, and commentators discuss the economy, corporate earnings, and

Might Nvidia and Tesla, with price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) nearly double and quadruple that of the S&P 500, respectively, be value stocks? Conversely, is it possible that Ford is not a value stock despite a P/E of 10, a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of .20, and a 7.5% dividend yield? Based solely on that information, answering the question is impossible. Regardless, we bet most investors classify Nvidia and Tesla as growth stocks and Ford as a value stock.

This article introduces GARP- Growth at a Reasonable Price. As we will detail, by introducing earnings growth expectations into traditional valuation equations, some value stocks may not be quite the gems investors think. Likewise, some growth stocks may be value stocks.  

Defining Value And Growth

All money is lent into existence. The Federal Reserve or the government does not print money. Those two facts are vital to understanding our lead question: where does money come from? Furthermore, knowing who does and doesn’t print money and the incentives and disincentives that change the money supply are critical to inflation forecasting.  

Some so-called bond vigilantes are running around like Chicken Little, warning that the Fed’s recent rate cuts will increase inflation. They fail to understand the two lead facts. Moreover, and somewhat ironic, the Fed’s shift to a dovish monetary policy has been hawkish and disinflationary on the margin.

A dovish-hawkish policy description may sound crazy, but read on. With a better appreciation of how money is created,

For $20,000, you can buy a global airline pass to see the world. Or, for the low price of free, you can take a quick trip with us worldwide. Unfortunately, our global trip is not as exciting as an around-the-world pass. Still, it may enlighten you about some economic struggles abroad. Moreover, why, in time, they may be problematic for the US.

China, Britain, Europe, and other countries and regions are experiencing sluggish economic growth and, in some cases, contraction. At the same time, the US continues its strong post-pandemic growth pace. Has the US economy diverged from the global economy, or are a lot of economic canaries in coalmines keeling over and warning the US is soon to catch down?

Globalization

Before summarizing economic conditions in a few

MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock is soaring alongside Bitcoin. In the wake of extreme confidence, we fear many MicroStrategy investors fail to grasp the inherent risks with its unique convertible bond funding and leverage scheme. A recent podcast featuring Tom Lee presented some positive facts about MicroStrategy’s recent convertible bond offering but failed to tell the whole story. Left out of Tom Lee’s enthusiastic outlook is that the "novel strategy" can also bankrupt the company. 

While Bitcoin may continue higher, proving MicroStrategy’s CEO Michael Saylor a genius, investors should at least appreciate what may happen if things do not go according to plan. We now present the other side of the story.  

What is MicroStrategy?

Per its website, MicroStrategy

Mark Cuban Says Trump’s Tariff Proposals Will Ramp Up Prices- Business Insider

Fed’s Kashkari Says Trump Tariffs Could Reheat Inflation If They Provoke Global Trade War- CNBC

Blanket Tariffs Would Be Incredibly Inflationary, Says Strategist- CNBC

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Warns "Sweeping Untargeted Tariffs" Would Reaccelerate Inflation- CBS News

Trump Tariffs Expected To Spike Inflation, Interest Rates- Business Insider

The headlines regarding Trump’s proposed tariffs and their inflationary consequences are undoubtedly worrying, but will they prove correct?

Instead of taking the "experts" word, let’s consider how tariffs may affect the prices of all goods and services, not just the items subject to tariffs. Furthermore, it’s worth discussing how

When we discuss technical analysis in our articles and podcasts, we often examine the moving average convergence divergence indicator, better known as the MACD, or colloquially the Mac D.

The MACD is one of our favored technical indicators to help forecast prices and manage risk. Accordingly, let’s learn more about the MACD to see how it detects trends, potential trend changes, and assesses momentum.

It’s important to stress we use many technical and fundamental tools to review current or potential investments. There is no such thing as a perfect technical indicator. However, when a handful of trusted indicators give you a similar outlook, the odds of success are much better. As you will see later in this article, the MACD of the S&P 500 has given plenty of

Record deficit spending, soaring money supply, and inflation are among the likely responses we would hear from investors to the question of why gold is surging. Instead of presuming those or other market narratives about gold prices are correct, let’s analyze historical correlations between gold and economic and market data.

In addition to helping you better appreciate why gold is surging, our analysis will help you recognize that market narratives explaining asset price movements can be wrong, no matter how reasonable they may seem at first blush.

What Is Gold?

Gold is neither a claim on the promise of future earnings like a stock nor a liability owed by a public institution or a private party like a bond. Unlike currency, it lacks the full faith and

Can famed investors Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller, who recently proclaimed they are short bonds, thus betting on higher yields, be wrong? Instead of mindlessly assuming such legendary investors are correct, let’s do some homework.

First, though, let’s remind ourselves that Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller are known for their aggressive trading styles. Therefore, we don’t know whether their bets are short term trades for a quick profit, or longer-term bets on significantly higher yields. Moreover, maybe their negative bond commentary is just “talking their books” to get traders and investors to follow them and boost their profits. Such a proven strategy by famous traders can be a recipe for losses by those who try to mimic their trades.

The Mayo Clinic defines Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, or PTSD, as “a mental health condition that’s caused by an extremely stressful or terrifying event — either being part of it or witnessing it.” Within the field of PTSD research is a concept called “memory inflation.” Memory inflation occurs when memories of traumatic events become more intense over time.   

Memory inflation of past events amplifies one’s emotions and behaviors. As we will discuss, distress from recent price inflation is causing many investors to overly fear that a similar situation will reoccur.

Given the tight relationship between inflation and bond yields, memory inflation negatively affects bond prices. Additionally, memory inflation may prevent some investors from seeing an

The financial media frequently opines on what the daily gyrations of the VIX (implied volatility index) signal regarding investor sentiment. Despite how often it is quoted and discussed, many investors do not truly appreciate what implied volatility measures.

We take this opportunity to help you better understand implied volatility. Furthermore, we discuss other lesser-followed measures of implied volatility that help better assess whether implied VIX readings infer bullish or bearish sentiment. 

The timing of this article is essential as the VIX has been rising alongside the market in a non-typical fashion. With the presidential election in a few weeks, the Fed changing course on monetary policy, and Israel potentially attacking Iranian oil facilities, the

Numerous reader requests following our article, Agency REITs For A Bull Steepener, prompted us to write this follow-up with more detail about how to analyze agency REITs. This article doesn’t recommend specific agency REITs, but it does lay out some of the fundamental basics of the largest publicly traded agency REITs. In doing so, this analysis and the prior article provide a solid foundation for further evaluating agency REITs.

Before diving in, it’s worth noting that most agency REITs offer preferred shares. While we do not discuss them in this article, preferred shares may also prove rewarding and less risky in the current bull-steepening interest rate environment. 

(Disclosure: RIA Advisors has a position in NLY and REM in its client portfolios.)

On September 18, 2024, the headlines read the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points. At first blush, one would think that a trader with a crystal ball a couple of days before the Fed action would buy bonds and lick their chops over the money they would soon make. In this case, the crystal ball was a curse.

Bond yields rose following the rate cut despite what many investment professionals perceive to be a bullish event. If you scour the media, you will find rationales for the sell-off. Such includes the Fed stoking inflation or China’s massive stimulus package. In our opinion, it’s much more straightforward; it all comes down to context.

We were inspired to write this by a message asking us in disbelief if we had ever seen such an adverse bond market

In our recent two-part series on the yield curve (Part One  Part Two) we discussed the four predominant yield curve shifts and what they imply about economic activity and monetary policy. Additionally, given the current bullish steepening trend of the yield curve, we provided data on how prior bull steepening environments impacted various stock indexes, sectors, and factors. Missing from our analysis was a discussion of a specific type of REIT whose valuations are well correlated with the shape of the yield curve. If you are buying this bull steepener, agency REITs are worth your consideration.

What is an Agency Mortgage REIT?

REITs own, manage, or hold the debt on income-producing properties. REITs must pay out at least 90% of their taxable profits to

Part One of this article described the burgeoning bull steepening yield curve environment and what it implies about economic growth and Fed policy. It also discussed the three other predominant types of yield curve shifts and what they suggest for the economy and Fed policy.

Persistent yield curve shifts tend to correlate with different stock performances. With the odds growing that a long bull steepening may be upon us, it’s incumbent upon us to quantify how various stock indices, sectors, and factors have done during similar yield curve movements.

Limiting Losses With Yield Curve Analysis

Stocks spend a lot more time trending upward than downward. However, in those relatively brief periods where longer-term bearish trends endure, investors are advised

Profitable bond trading opportunities arise when your expectations about Fed policy differ from those of the market. Therefore, with the Fed seemingly embarking on a series of interest rate cuts, it behooves us to appreciate how many interest rate cuts the Fed Funds futures market expects and over what period. Equally important, Fed Funds futures help us assess the market’s economic growth and inflation expectations.

Currently, Fed Funds futures imply the Fed will start cutting rates in September and reduce them by 2.25% to 3.09% in early 2026. From that point, the market expects the Fed to slowly increase Fed Funds to 3.50%. The limited rate cuts and relatively high trough in Fed Funds tell us the market is not pricing in a recession but a normalization of

Ask economists how they forecast economic activity. It’s likely they will mention productivity, demographics, debt, the Fed, interest rates, and a litany of other elements. Economic confidence is probably not at the top of the list for most economists. It is tricky to gauge as it can be inconsistent. However, confidence can sometimes change quickly and often with significant economic impacts.

Look at the two pictures below. Can you spot a difference between them?

The difference is subtle. The restaurant on the left has 54 diners. While the one on the right is missing the three diners in the front.

What if the three missing diners decided to eat at home that day due to waning confidence in the economy and, ultimately, concerns about the safety of their

On December 5, 1996, Chairman of the Fed Alan Greenspan offered that stock prices may be too high, thus risking a correction that could result in an economic fallout. He wondered out loud if the market had reached a state of “irrational exuberance.”
Over the past few months, we have seen the same term, irrational exuberance, used to describe the current state of the stock market. To gain perspective on the future, let’s compare the market environment that prompted Greenspan’s comments to today.
Irrational Exuberance
Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of

The Lifeline of Markets- Liquidity Defined
We recently read an analogy in which the author compares the current state of asset prices to an airplane flying at 50,000 feet. Unfortunately, we cannot find the article and provide a link. The gist is market valuations are flying at an abnormally high altitude. While our market plane cannot sustain such heights in the long run, there is little reason to suspect it will fall from the sky either.
Many investors are writing on the current state of extreme equity and bond valuations. Surprisingly, there is little research focusing on what keeps valuations at such levels. Liquidity is our asset bubble’s lift and worth closely examining to better assess the markets’ potential flight path.
Market Liquidity
In the investment

Taper Is Coming: Got Bonds?
The solid economic recovery and easing of COVID restrictions lead us to believe a tapering of QE may not be far off. Further supporting our opinion, inflation has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and employment is improving rapidly. On top of that are whispers from within the Fed questioning financial stability given extreme asset valuations driven to some degree by excessive QE.
Most importantly, various Fed members are starting to talk the taper talk.
The eventual tapering of QE will foster a change in investor behaviors. This article focuses on bond yields and a few interest-rate-sensitive equity sectors to provide forward guidance on how fixed income and interest-rate-sensitive assets may perform in a tapering environment.

The Battle Royale: Stocks vs. Bonds.
The S&P 500 is at valuations higher than those in 1929 and rival those of 1999. Despite a recession, the index is 25% above where it was trading before the pandemic. The equity stampede is undoubtedly bullish about corporate earnings prospects and, by default, economic growth.
As the stock bulls party, bond investors are glum about future economic prospects. Bond yields are below where they were before the pandemic started. Current yields warn of paltry economic growth and little inflation in the future.
Who has it right? (My colleague Lance Roberts touched on this issue in this past weekend’s newsletter.)
Flipping Valuations
Traditional equity valuation analysis frequently involves the comparison of a fundamental metric to