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KOF Economic Barometer: Continues to Rise

March 31, 2017

In March 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer rose by 0.7 points to a new reading of 107.6. It thus reinforces its previous month’s climb to a level clearly above its long-term average. This indicates that the Swiss economy should grow at above average rates in the near future.

In March 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer climbed from 106.9 in February (revised down from 107.2) by 0.7 points to a level of 107.6. Accordingly, the Barometer not only confirmed the February reading, but even reached a slightly higher level. It thus stands markedly above its long-term average for the second time in a row, signaling above average growth rates for the near future.
The strongest positive contributions to this result come from the construction sector, followed by indicators relating to domestic private consumption and to the financial sector. Indicators regarding the manufacturing sector and the hospitality industry have practically remained unchanged. A slightly negative signal stems from the exporting industry.
Within the manufacturing industry, the unchanged overall outlook can be attributed to somewhat diverging signals. An improving sentiment is mainly visible amongst the architects. In addition, the electrical and the chemical industry are more optimistic than before.

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KOF Economic Barometer: Soft Drop

January 30, 2017

The KOF Economic Barometer dropped slightly in January 2017. Compared to its December 2016 value it is now standing at 101.7 points. The standing at a level slightly above the long-term average indicates stable perspectives for the Swiss economy in the near future.

In January 2017, the Economic Barometer reached a score of 101.7 points. This relates to a slight downward revision by 0.4 points compared to its December value (102.1, revised from 102.2). Positive impulses to the Barometer came from the construction and the export sector. Negative signals to the January standing came from indicators related to the financial sector, private consumption and, in particular, to the hotel and restaurant industry. The indicators from the manufacturing sector neutralized each other.
However, within the manufacturing industry, the development was heterogeneous. Positive tendencies stemmed from the chemical and the metal industry, whereas the textile industry contributed negatively. The remaining industries combined conveyed a neutral contribution in January.
In particular, the competition position of the manufacturing sector has improved. At the same time the judgment of the revenues has deteriorated somewhat.

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Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer December: Unchanged

December 26, 2016

In December 2016, the KOF Economic Barometer stayed at its previous month’s reading of 102.2. The currently observable sideward trend, at a level slightly above the long-term average, indicates that the Swiss economy should grow at rates close to its long-term average in the near future.

In December 2016, the KOF Economic Barometer, with a value of 102.2 being unchanged compared to the previous month, continued to be slightly above its long-term average. Positive impulses to the unchanged total balance came from the manufacturing industry, weighed up by negative signals from the construction sector. The remaining areas that can be identified within the Barometer (hotel and catering industry, financial sector and indicators relating private consumption as well as to the international economy) have practically not changed as compared to November.
Within the manufacturing industry, the slightly improved total outlook was primarily driven by the textile and wood-processing industries as well as by the category “others”. These positive tendencies were to some degree counteracted by deteriorating outlooks in the food-processing, electrical and paper industries.

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KOF Economic Barometer Is Climbing

October 28, 2016

KOF Economic Barometer rose by 3.1 points (from revised 101.6 in September) to 104.7. It thus recovered from its recent summer trough of below the 100 points and stands as high as for the last time in January 2014. Accordingly, the outlook for the Swiss suggests above potential short-term growth rates.

In October 2016, the KOF Economic Barometer, with a new reading of 104.7, pointed visibly above its long-term average. The strongest impulses contributing positively to the dynamics of the Barometer came from hospitality services and manufacturing. The only negative impacts came from the financial sector.
Within the manufacturing sector, the improved outlook is manifesting itself primarily in the electrical and machine building industries. Wood-processing and timber were the negative outliers.
The improved sentiment in manufacturing as a whole is primarily driven by a favourable assessment of the overall business climate and the improved competitiveness of manufacturing. Hence, the January 2015 appreciation shock appears to have been digested by many firms by now.

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KOF Economic Barometer: Prospects for the Swiss Economy Remain Favourable

August 1, 2016

The KOF Economic Barometer has only changed little and reached a value of 102.7 in July. In June, and therefore before the referendum in the United Kingdom about its membership in the EU, the KOF Economic Barometer stood at a value of 102.6 (revised from 102.4). Thus the Barometer has been standing above the historical average since February this year. Despite the outcome of the vote in the United Kingdom and various other geopolitical risks, the outlook for the Swiss economyremains stable.

Despite inc reased uncertainty about the international economic development, export opportunities for Swiss enterprises have improved. The indicators for the banking sector also show an upward tendency. On the other hand, the data for the manufacturing industry dampen the development. Barely changed has the outlook for domestic consumption, construction activity and for hotels and catering.

Although the manufacturing businesses assess their overall competitive position no longer so unfavourably as before, production is slower and capacity utilization is low. Accordingly, the personnel plans are more unfavourable. In particular, the prospects for the machinery, the metal industry and the electric industry have deteriorated .

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