SNB & CHF

EUR/CHF The SNB is intervening for 3 bn. CHF per week, this is far too much at these elevated Euro and Dollar levels. With two times positive economic data (here and here) about good news on internal demand, she might be finally be ready to let the euro fall. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rate has opened up flat...

As the UK triggered its formal departure from the European Union yesterday, gold demand from UK investors remained ongoing and robust with increased numbers of British investors diversifying into physical gold in order to hedge the considerable uncertainty and volatility that the coming months and years will bring. The U.K. government yesterday triggered Article 50–the legal mechanism which will start negotiations on...

The Market Has its Head Buried Deep In The Sand Several “black swans” are looming which could inflict a financial nuclear accident on the U.S. markets and financial system. I say “black swans” in quotes because a limited audience is aware of these issues – potentially catastrophic problems that are curiously ignored by the mainstream financial media and financial markets. The most immediate problem is the Treasury...

Last weekend, European leaders gathered in Rome for the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. They discussed, not for the first time, how to get the EU back on track. And they told each other they are still committed to the Union and believe in its future. (We’ve heard that one before, too.) But let’s just suppose that, when the European leaders sat down for lunch at the Quirinal Palace, some of them had a little too...

In an exclusive interview with Swiss public television, SRF, a former agent of the Turkish National Intelligence Organisation (MİT), confirmed suspicions that political espionage had taken place in the past on members of the Turkish community in Switzerland. On March 24, the Swiss Attorney General’s office announced it had opened criminal proceedings into allegations of such political espionage taking place on Swiss soil. In a statement, the prosecutor’s office said there was “concrete...

The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy. The UBS consumption indicator rose to 1.50 points in February from 1.44, indicating solid private consumption in the first quarter. Domestic tourism bottomed out and then rose significantly in January. On the...

Source: cnbc.com - Click to enlarge I had time this afternoon, as I prepare for my TMA presentation tomorrow night here in Hong Kong, to find my clip from yesterday on CNBC, where I suggested the risk of a dollar recovery after it lost downside momentum in North America on Monday. There has not been much follow through today, though the euro broke below $1.08 in late-Asia and is maintaining the break in early...

Earlier today, I had the opportunity to discuss the outlook for sterling and the US dollar on Bloomberg TV with Rishaad Salamat and Haidi Lun.  It is a momentous day with Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty being formally triggered by UK Prime Minister May, nine months after what was, at least initially, a non-binding referendum. European Council President Tusk is expected formally to respond for the EU before the...

  Unanimity Syndrome If there is one thing apparently no-one believes to be possible, it is a resurgence of consumer price inflation. Actually, we are not expecting it to happen either. If one compares various “inflation” data published by the government, it seems clear that the recent surge in headline inflation was largely an effect of the rally in oil prices from their early 2016 low. Since the rally in oil prices...

India’s Rapid Degradation This is Part XI of a series of articles (the most recent of which is linked here) in which I have provided regular updates on what started as the demonetization of 86% of India’s currency. The story of demonetization and the ensuing developments were merely a vehicle for me to explore Indian institutions, culture and society. Tribal cultures face an inherent contradiction. They create poison...