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Tyler Durden

Tyler Durden

Tyler Durden is a reference to the lead character in Fight Club. It's the pseudonym for Zero Hedge's key author(s) used to hide their identities.

Articles by Tyler Durden

“They’re Just Chasing” – The Fed Has Put Distressed Investors Out Of Business… Again

4 days ago

“People aren’t investing, they’re just chasing.”
That is the ominous, ponzi-like warning from Adam Cohen, Caspian Capital’s managing partner as the distressed debt investor has chosen to return some money to investors because the rewards don’t justify the high risks anymore.
He is not wrong as it’s party time for zombie companies everywhere as “high yield” is now officially “low yield.”
“People aren’t investing, they’re just chasing.”
That is the ominous, ponzi-like warning from Adam Cohen, Caspian Capital’s managing partner as the distressed debt investor has chosen to return some money to investors because the rewards don’t justify the high risks anymore.
He is not wrong as it’s party time for zombie companies everywhere as “high yield” is now officially “low

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Can Credit Suisse Avoid Becoming The ‘Deutsche Bank’ Of Switzerland?

5 days ago

“And the future is certain, give us time to work it out…”
Markets were shaken but unstirred by the collapse of Greensill and the Archegos unwind trades. Credit Suisse is the ultimate loser of the two scandals – reputationally damaged and holed below the water line.  The bank is paying the price of years of flawed management, poor risk awareness. and its self-belief it was still a Tier 1 global player. Its’ challenge is to avoid becoming the Deutsche Bank of Switzerland – which it will struggle to do without a radical and unlikely shakeout.

As the global economy bounces back, markets are having a good time as indices close higher, but things aren’t so bright in Switzerland.
I started this morning by opening Credit Suisse’s Private Banking website. I was curious.

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Credit Suisse Dumping Huge Archegos Blocks; Liquidating Millions In VIACS, VIPS And FTCH

8 days ago

Literally moments ago we said that the Archegos portoflio was being sold off all day on fears of “stealth” prime broker deleveraging, as tens of millions of shares were yet to be accounted for. Then, moments after 5pm, Credit Suisse – the firm that was hammered the hardest by the Archegos implosion and which had yet to provide a detailed breakdown of its Bill Hwang-linked P&L – confirmed what we said, when it unveiled a massive secondary offering dump, including shares of VIACA, VIPS and FTCH.
As shown in the block notice below, Credit Suisse hopes to sell its remaining holdings in VIAC at $41-$42.75; its VIPS at $28.50-$29.50 and its FTCH at $47.50-$49.25. While it is unclear what losses the Swiss bank is taking on these final unwinds, it’s safe to say that they

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Another Wirecard? Invoices Backing Greensill-Issued Bonds Never Existed, Administrator Finds

11 days ago

As the collapse of Greensill Capital threatens to ensnare former PM David Cameron in a humiliating public probe, the Financial Times on Thursday reported some disturbing new details that appear to suggest Greensill wasn’t merely reckless, but potentially guilty of a Wirecard-style fraud. According to the FT, Greensil’s administrator – who is responsible for winding down whatever assets remain and managing creditors’ claims – “has failed to verify invoices underpinning loans to Sanjeev Gupta, after companies listed on the documents denied that they had ever done business with the metals magnate.”

In other words, it would appear that some of the bonds issued by Greensill were backed by fraudulent invoices. Keep in mind, Credit Suisse went on to take these bonds and

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Things That Make Me Go Hmmm: Inflation, Crypto, Command Economies, & Gold

15 days ago

Over the years I’ve written almost ad nauseum about the crazy I see (and saw) around me as a fund manager, family office principal and individual investor.
The list includes: 1) an entire book on the grotesque central bank distortions of free market price discovery, 2) the open (and now accepted) dishonesty on everything from front-running Musk tweets and bogus inflation reporting to COMEX price fixing, 3) the insanity of 100-Year Austrian bonds or just plain negative-yielding bonds going mainstream, 4) the open death of classic capitalism and the rise of economic feudalism, 5) asset bubble hysteria seen in everything from BTC to Tesla; 5) rising social unrest, 6) the serious implications of Yield Curve Controland the gross mispricing of debt that has midwifed the

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Getting Ready For Gold’s Golden Era

25 days ago

Worried about gold sentiment? Don’t be.
The mainstream view of gold right now is an open yawn, and sentiment indicators for this precious metal are now at 3-year lows despite the gold highs of last August.
Is this cause for genuine concern?
Not at all.
In fact, quite the opposite.
Most investors are totally wrong about gold, and below we show rather than argue why they are missing the forest for the trees.
Unlike trend chasers, speculating gamblers and gold bears, sophisticated precious metal professionals and historically (as well as mathematically) conscious investors are not only calm right now, they are biding their time for what is about to become gold’s perfect backdrop and, pardon the pun, golden era.
Understanding the Current Gold Price
As for the current

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Credit Suisse Claws Back Bonuses, ‘Restructures’ Asset-Management Unit As Greensill Scapegoating Continues

26 days ago

Credit Suisse is still reeling from the collapse of Greensill Capital, a firm which it championed by helping to sell its financial products (created by ensconcing trade invoices in a complex securities wrapper). 8 months after the first reports emerged about the bank’s potential involvement in a risky “circular financing scheme” involving SoftBank and Greensill (which the bank pledged to investigate at the time), CS and its clients have been left holding the bag (after CS gated some $10 billion in funds stocked with Greensill products, claiming that, without insurance coverage, the assets had become impossible to value). And now the bank is understandably eager to scapegoat some employees, in accordance with the Wall Street scandal playbook.
According to the FT‘s

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Swiss Voters Approve ‘Burqa Ban’

March 13, 2021

Swiss voters have narrowly approved a proposal to ban face coverings in public spaces.
The measure comes just over a decade after citizens voted to ban the construction of minarets, the tower-like structures on mosques that are often used to call Muslims to prayer.
The referenda reflect the determination of a majority of Swiss voters to preserve Swiss traditions and values in the face of runaway multiculturalism and the encroachment of political Islam.
Switzerland now joins Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands and Sweden, all of which currently have full or partial bans on religious and non-religious face coverings.
The binding referendum, approved on March 7 by 51.2% of voters, is popularly known as the “burqa

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Credit Suisse Launches Probe Into Collapsed Greensill Trade-Finance Funds

March 11, 2021

Roughly a weekand a-half has passed since Credit Suisse gated funds containing $10BN in assets packaged by Greensill, the troubled financial innovator that suckered in former British PM David Cameron, SoftBank and legions of clients and investors with its stated mission to “democratize” supply-chain finance. Now that the trade finance emperor has fallen (having filed for administration earlier this week), Credit Suisse is starting the arduous process of convincing regulators and its clients that the bank is taking steps to ensure that something like this never happens again.
In keeping with its scandal-response playbook, the Swiss megabank is launching an internal investigation (kind of like it did after the corporate espionage scandal which felled its former CEO,

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SocGen Slashes Banker Bonuses Amid ECB Pressure

March 4, 2021

Despite banks, broadly speaking, having a banner year in 2020 as central-bank-liquidity more-than-washed over the losses due to COVID and policy restrictions, banker bonuses have come under pressure.
In Europe, the picture is more uncertain as banks’ performance has been mixed.
Credit Suisse wound up reducing its bonus pool by about 7%.
Back in December 2020, Credit Suisse CEO Thomas Gottstein blamed the cuts on social responsibility, stating that “it’s too early to say, but generally you have to expect that bonuses will be down compared to last year and this is part of our solidarity and social responsibility. This is a challenge, but it’s something the whole industry is facing.”
Deutsche Bank also had to scale back a plan to increase bonuses after the EU

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Swiss To Vote In Referendum On Government’s Emergency COVID-19 Measures

February 25, 2021

After mounting a national campaign, and the work of determined local organisations, Swiss campaigners have managed to trigger a referendum for ending the government’s destructive COVID regulations. If successful, this will also be a blow for the extremists at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, who have been pushing the idea of a global economic shutdown since the beginning of the alleged ‘global pandemic.’
Among other things, the peoples’ revolt is pushing back against the government’s coercive attempt to enforce a “compulsory system with poorly tested vaccines.”
In the meantime, the government has announced that it will start to ease some national mitigation measures from March 1st.
Euro News reports…
Swiss campaigners have triggered a referendum on

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The Death Of Logic

February 24, 2021

Just over four years ago, as Bitcoin was making its first big moves in both price and public perception, John Hussman of Hussman Investment Trust penned a lengthy as well as seminal report entitled, “Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin.”
The core themes set forth in his report (as in any well-reasoned, blunt analysis) are refreshingly evergreen in their ongoing applicability.
Rather than re-invent an already functioning wheel, I’ve opted to revisit some of Hussman’s key arguments which have not only stood the test of time, but remain even more pertinent in today’s perception-challenged markets.
The Follies of Our Predecessors
Hussman’s report opens with a quote from Charles Mackay’s work, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of

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Unhappy Endings: Deception Has Gone Global

February 16, 2021

Looking Behind the Labels
Regardless of one’s politics, most would agree that extremely complex issues are typically given extremely misleading titles.
Not all those of the extreme left, for example, are all that “woke” and not everyone on the far right, to be fair, is a “domestic terrorist.”
Nevertheless, words are often misused and abused to place, as well as burry, otherwise nuanced realities behind simple phrases, as we’ve seen in everything from the “Patriot Act” to “Monetary Stimulus.”
Financial Fiction Writers
So many of the fancy words and phrases tossed about by our financial elites come in such deliberate yet pear-shaped tones of calm, authority and wisdom.
Even the title, “Federal Reserve,” is one loaded with irony for what is otherwise a private bank…

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Goldman Lists The Three Things That Could Go “Really Wrong” In 2021

January 25, 2021

On Saturday, we showed why according to observations from Credit Suisse and BofA, the “US Economy Is Set To Overheat As Households Are Flooded With $2 Trillion In Excess Savings.” Then, in a note this morning from Morgan Stanley asking “What To Do About All This Optimism” the bank said that “in November, December and now January, no question or concern has come up more often than ‘everyone is optimistic’.” Finally, the latest Fund Managers Survey showed that investors’ global growth expectations rose by 1% to a net 90%, the 3rd highest growth expectations ever (#1 in March 2002, #2 in November 2020).

Global Real Economy, 1994-2020 – Click to enlarge
This unbridled optimism prompted Goldman to boost its full year US GDP forecast to 6.6%, nearly 50% higher than

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Insanity: As The US Enters A Depression, Stocks Are Now The Most Overvalued Ever

April 12, 2020

Two days ago, when a platoon of clueless CNBC hacks said that stocks were extremely undervalued, and must be bought (on their fundamentals, not because the Fed was about to nationalize the entire bond market and is set to start buying equity ETFs in the next crash), we showed just how “undervalued” the market was.
That’s when Credit Suisse chief equity strategist Jonathan Golub – usually one of the most bullish Wall Streeters – published a chart showing that any “temporary” cheapness in stocks hit in late March was long gone for the simple reason that forward earnings have plunged. As a result, as of noon on March 7, when the S&P 500 had risen as much as 22% from March 23 lows, forward stock multiples had surged right back 19.0x.
Why is this notable? Because as

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As COVID-19 Drives People Into Isolation, Wall Street’s New ‘Virtual Workplace’ May Become The Norm

March 24, 2020

As governments take drastic measures to slow the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic, Wall Street – much like a plethora of other industries – has embraced the virtual workplace, according to Bloomberg.

In Hong Kong, bankers have learned to win stock offerings by video chat, and Morgan Stanley is hosting a virtual meeting for a thousand-plus attendees. At Swiss giant UBS Group AG, wealth management executives have realized trips to see clients weren’t as crucial as thought. In California, an investor in hedge funds said he’s pleasantly surprised by how much faster he can confer with them remotely. –Bloomberg
And according to the report, virtual finance may outlast the coronavirus – assuming a treatment is eventually found. Bloomberg notes that there are

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Jim Bianco: “This Is One Of The Biggest Moments Of Truth In Financial Market History”

March 18, 2020

Authored by Christoph Gisiger via TheMarket.ch,
To contain the economic and financial ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic, Central Banks are going all in.
Jim Bianco, founder and chief strategist of Bianco Research, warns that this time, monetary policy might be unable to stop financial markets from collapsing.
The Federal Reserve brings out the bazooka: It cuts the federal funds rate down to zero and will buy $700 billion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Additionally, in a coordinated effort with five other major central banks, including the Swiss National Bank, the Fed opens swap lines to smooth out disruptions in overseas Dollar markets.
Still, financial markets seem unimpressed. Futures contracts on the S&P 500 dropped 5%, reaching a «limit

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Credit Suisse MD Dies In Freak Accident After Slipping Through Chairlift And Being Suffocated By His Own Jacket

February 22, 2020

Almost exactly 10 years ago, we detailed the tragic death of Gerard Reilly in a skiing accident – the point man on Repo 105, the point person for E&Y’s “investigation” into the Matthew Lee whistleblower campaign, Lehman’s Level 2 and Level 3 asset valuation, the brain behind the idea to spin off Lehman’s commercial real estate business, Lehman’s Archstone investment, and likely so much more:
[Reilly] was skiing alone on the John’s Bypass Trail, a connector between the Excelsior and Lower Cloudspin ski runs that’s accessible from either the Cloudsplitter Gondola or the Summit Quad chairlift, when he left the trail and hit a tree. A skier following behind Reilly witnessed the incident and contacted ski patrol.
…not only was he was a decent skier but he was over 6’4″

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“ECB Is Worst-Run Central Bank In The World” – Felix Zulauf Sees 30percent Plunge In US Stocks “Taking The World With It”

February 16, 2020

By Lauren Rublin, via Barrons.com
Felix Zulauf was a member of the Barron’s Roundtable for about 30 years, until relinquishing his seat at our annual investment gathering in 2017. While his predictions were more right than wrong, it was the breadth of his knowledge and the depth of his analysis of global markets that won him devoted fans among his Roundtable peers, the crew at Barron’s, and beyond. Simply put, Felix, president of Zulauf Asset Management in Baar, Switzerland, always knew—and still knows—better than most how to connect the dots among central bankers’ actions, fiscal policies, currency gyrations, geopolitics, and the price of assets, hard and soft.
With interest rates rising, governments in flux, and the world’s two biggest economies facing off over

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Bitcoin Tumbles To Key Technical Level, Dalio Disses Diversification Into Digital Currency

January 24, 2020

After pushing up to two-month highs over the weekend, Bitcoin is accelerating lower this morning…

Bitcoin, January 2020 Source: Bloomberg – Click to enlarge
Breaking down from the 200DMA and testing the 100DMA…

Bitcoin, 2019-2020(see more posts on Bitcoin, ) Source: Bloomberg – Click to enlarge
Cryptos are all lower today (and this week)…

Crypto currencies Source: Coin360 – Click to enlarge
…but remain notably higher on the year…
There was no immediate catalyst for today’s drop but we note that CoinTelegraph’s Andrey Shevchenko reports that Bridgewater Founder Ray Dalio warned against holding Bitcoin, saying that it’s neither a medium of exchange nor a store of value.

Crypto currencies, Jan 2020 Source: Bloomberg – Click to enlarge

Dalio was

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UBS Tumbles After Biggest Swiss Bank Misses Key Targets As Investors Pull Money

January 22, 2020

The rift between the US (where rates are still positive) and European banks (where rates have never been more negative) continues to grow.
While US banks have so far reported mostly better than expected results for Q4, the same can not be said for Europe, where UBS shares are down 5% as the bank misses fiscal year profitability and cost targets in addition to trimming its mid-term goals. As Saxobank notes, “UBS has been hit by wealth management outflows, negative rates and poor performance in its investment banking division” and notes that “this obviously sends a warning to investors if they thought overweight European banks was a good idea.” To be sure, negative rates will continue to haunt European banks until the ECB changes its mind on negative rates.
It’s not

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The ‘Great Replacement’ In Switzerland

January 21, 2020

Authored by Guillaume Durocher via The Unz Review,
After the article on the Great Replacement in Belgium, I present you the following translation of an article by Polémia on the situation in Switzerland. The Swiss situation is unique, if only because of the country’s objective excellence and exceptional quality of life, and the extraordinary practice of direct democracy. Thus we have the rather rare situation of citizens actually being allowed to vote on whether and in what conditions new people should be allowed into their country.
Make no mistake: the scale of demographic change is also tremendous in Switzerland, but mainly because of European immigration and even Europeans find it very difficult to accede to Swiss nationality (there is no birthright

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The S&P’s Biggest Bear Capitulates

January 8, 2020

First it was Dennis Gartman shutting down his newsletter after more than three decades, lamenting a market that no longer made any sense (a lament shared by Deutsche Bank’s Aleksanda Kocic), and now the market’s QE4-driven meltup has forced Wall Street’s biggest sellside bear to capitulate on his November call that the market will drop in 2020; instead UBS’ head of US equity strategy, Francois Trahan, has joined the bullish herd hiking his year-end S&P price target from 3,000, where he set the bottom of the year-ahead market forecasts alongside Morgan Stanley’s notorious bear Michael Wilson, to 3,250.
That said, as Bloomberg notes, Trahan’s new forecast is hardly exuberant, as it indicated a market that will close the year virtually unchanged from today’s level

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Xi To Skip Davos, Collapsing Hopes Of Phase One Deal Signing Event With Trump

December 26, 2019

Chinese President Xi Jinping
If it was The Wall Street Journal or other US financial media outlets, for the last several weeks, pumping headlines via “people familiar with the discussions,” about how President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could have a phase one trade deal signing event at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January.
It turns out, after all the optimism of a potential signing event at Davos between Trump and Xi — it was just all bogus hype — as it now appears Xi is skipping the event, according to Bloomberg.
Beijing will still send its top trade negotiator Vice Premier Liu He to sign the phase one trade deal in Washington in January.
It seems that China isn’t interested in grandstanding the trade deal, unlike Trump.
Trump

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Credit Suisse Ex-Employee Says “Striking Tall Blonde” Spy Followed Her In Manhattan And Long Island

December 24, 2019

When Colleen Graham heard a story of investigators looking into Credit Suisse for spying on its recently departed head of wealth management, something sounded familiar.
She had recalled, years prior, when she was working on a JV between the bank and Palantir Technologies, a “striking tall blonde” had followed her in Manhattan after she refused to sign off on how revenue from the JV would be booked. She filed a complaint in 2017 alleging the bank had taken retaliatory measures against her, including the surveillance, according to Bloomberg.
Credit Suisse had “expressed strong frustration” about her stance on the revenue recognition, she claimed.
So she reached out to CEO Tidjane Thiam and Chairman Urs Rohner, offering up the details of her story. She also reached

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Repo Crisis Fades Away: For The First Time, A “Turn” Repo Is Not Oversubscribed

December 23, 2019

It looks like the year-end repocalypse that was predicted by Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar is taking a raincheck.
Today’s Term Repo saw $26.25BN in security submissions ($15.75BN in TSYs, $10.5BN in MBS), below the $35BN in total availability. This was the first “turn” repo that was not fully subscribed (on Monday, there was $54.25BN in demand for $50BN in repos maturing on Jan 17).
As such, for the second day in a row, the Fed’s term repo operation was undersubscribed, but what was notable about today’s “temporary” liquidity injection is that this was the first term repo since the start of the Fed’s emergency repo program that covered the year-end “turn” with a maturity of Jan 2, and was not fully overalotted.

.
As shown in the chart below, the first

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Rosenblatt Goes Full Bear On Apple With $150 Target As China iPhone Sales Slump

December 20, 2019

Rosenblatt Securities analyst Jun Zhang maintained a sell rating on Apple with a price target of $150 per share, citing a decline in iPhone sales in China is leading to a wave of production cuts by the company.
“Based on our recent channel checks, we believe Apple’s total iPhone sales in China were down ~-30% y/y in November,” said Zhang in a note to clients on Tuesday.
Zhang stated that consumers are opting for cheaper models than the iPhone 11 Pro, which retails for around $1,100.
Rosenblatt’s sell rating on Apple has a price target of $150 per share, about -46% difference from the current price on Tuesday morning.

Apple sales, 2017-2020 – Click to enlarge
It was only last week when Credit Suisse warned about declining iPhone shipments in China:
CS said

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UBS Has No Choice In Passing Negative Rate Pain To Customers

November 22, 2019

There’s been talk that the Federal Reserve will slam interest rates to zero or even negative when the next recession strikes. President Trump’s support for negative interest rates has quickly increased in the last several months as the latest tracking estimates for Q4 GDP have tumbled to sub 0.4%.
It seems that policy rates in the US are too high — and will likely conform to the rest of the world, which is near zero to negative territory. This has undoubtedly alarmed UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, who said banks have “no choice” but to pass on the negative rate pain to customers.
Ermotti said UBS “will not pass negative rates to smaller clients, the personal banking clients,” that’s because if UBS and other EU banks actually passed along negative rates to poor and

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World’s Ultra-Rich Preparing For Market Crash, UBS Warns

November 16, 2019

A synchronized global slowdown, with no end in sight, has spooked some of the wealthiest investors around the world, according to a new survey from UBS Wealth Management, seen by Bloomberg. UBS polled wealthy investors, who are preparing for a significant stock market correction by the end of next year.

S&P 500 Index, 2013-2021 – Click to enlarge
In the survey of more than 3,400 high net wealth respondents, 25% said they’ve sold risk assets, such as equities, commodities, and high-yield bonds, and have transitioned into cash. The synchronized global slowdown, coupled with a US-China trade war, were some of the greatest concerns of respondents.
“The rapidly changing geopolitical environment is the biggest concern for investors around the world,” said Paula

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Swiss National Bank Now Owns Record $94 Billion In US Stocks After Q3 Buying Spree

November 14, 2019

In the third quarter of 2019, one in which the global economy continued to cycle lower, global central banks across the world continued to slash interest rates and launched/expanded quantitative easing programs with very little success at troughing global growth. Still, US equity indices powered to new highs, climbing a wall of worry of President Trump’s “trade optimism” tweets.
It seemed quite evident over the quarter that President Trump’s tweeting of constant fake trade news and record stock buybacks juiced the market to new highs, however, what was really taking place was the Swiss National Bank (SNB) printing money out of thin air buying stocks with no regard for price or cost. 
SNB’s motive was to boost market confidence that a 2016-style rebound in the

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