Tag Archives: newsletter

– US needs to borrow almost $300 billion this week alone – This is the largest debt issuance since 2008 financial crisis – Trump threatens trade war with its biggest creditor – China – Bond auctions have seen weak demand due to large supply and trade war concerns – $20 trillion mark reached in early September 2017; $1 trillion added in just 6 months – US total national debt level now exceeds $21.05 trillion and is...

– Eurozone threatened by trade wars, Italy and major political and economic instability – Trade war holds a clear and present danger to stability and economic prospects – Italy represents major source of potential disruption for the currency union – Financial markets fail to reflect the “eurozone time-bomb” in Italy – Financial volatility concerns in Brussels & warning of ‘sharp correction’ on horizon – Euro and...

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is credited with being the first central bank to adopt a formal inflation target. Following last year’s election, the central bank’s mandate has been modified to include full employment. To be sure this was a political decision, and one that initially saw the New Zealand dollar retreat. The dual mandate that originated with the Fed has been questioned in the US, but Congress has shown...

A Word on 1987 Analogies – Why Even Bother? As our friend Dimitri Speck noted in his recent update, the chart pattern of the SPX continues to follow famous crash antecedents quite closely, but obviously not precisely. In particular, the decisive trendline break was rejected for the moment. If the market were to follow the 1987 analog with precision, it would already have crashed this week. Nevertheless, we wanted to...

The Trump Administration last week announced tariffs of 25% on USD 60bn worth of imports from China (out of USD506bn of total Chinese merchandise imports). The list of products targeted, still has to be thrashed out. The official aim is to sanction China for alleged theft of US firms’ intellectual property; the US Trade Representative (USTR) estimates the damage amounts to USD 50bn. But President Trump also sees the...

Recent positive developments in the United Kingdom (UK), namely the transitional deal reached between the UK and the European Union (EU) on 20 March and the strong job market report on 21 March, call for a more positive short-term outlook for the sterling than previously thought. We therefore revise our projections upward for the sterling on the entire time horizon. Our new projection for the GBP/USD rate in the next 12...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.34% to 1.1779 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Today may be the last day of full liquidity until next Tuesday, after the Easter holidays. We identify three developments that are characterizing the end of the month, quarter, and for some countries and companies, the fiscal year. Equity...

There’s something happening here What it is ain’t exactly clear There’s a man with a gun over there Telling me I got to beware I think it’s time we stop, children, what’s that sound Everybody look what’s going down There’s battle lines being drawn Nobody’s right if everybody’s wrong Young people speaking their minds Getting so much resistance from behind It’s time we stop, hey, what’s that sound Everybody look what’s...

The Swiss company RUAG made the news last week when investigators were called in to look at information relating to the sale of ammunition. But what is this company? RUAG Ammotec stand at Berlin Airshow 2016 © Sergey Kohl _ Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge According to RTS, the investigation revealed contracts for the sale of ammunition to Russia that had not been properly declared, RUAG triggered the investigation...

A traquil view of the Loentsch power plant on Lake Kloentaler in canton Glarus. (Keystone/Roland Schuler) - Click to enlarge The electricity consumed in Switzerland is ever greener, according to government statistics: some 62% comes from renewable sources, while nuclear has fallen to 17%. The figures (in French/German)external link were released on Monday by the Federal Office of Energy, which gathers each...