Tag Archives: newsletter

Back in October, we noted the likely coming of two important distortions in global economic data. The first was here at home in the form of Mother Nature. The other was over in China where Communist officials were gathering as they always do in their five-year intervals. That meant, potentially: In the US our economic data for a few months at least will be on shaky ground due to the lingering economic impacts of severe...

New orders for durable goods, excluding transportation industries, rose 9.1% year-over-year (NSA) in January 2018. Shipments of the same were up 8.8%. These rates are in line with the acceleration that began in October 2017 coincident to the aftermath of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. In that way, they are somewhat misleading. The seasonally-adjusted data gives a better sense of the distortions created by those storms. New...

This week the German Bundesbank published its 2017 annual report, which includes a number of interesting figures that are relevant to the broader (monetary) policy debate in the euro area. In particular, the Bundesbank provided details of the amount of securities held on its balance sheet for policy purposes, including QE, at the end of 2017, and the corresponding flows of income stemming from its asset purchases....

In Switzerland, where cash is king, a national crypto currency has failed to turn heads (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Mounting calls for Switzerland to introduce a blockchain-based national cryptocurrency continue to fall on deaf ears at the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Romeo Lacher, chairman of the SIX Groupexternal link that runs the Swiss stock exchange, recently added his voice to the debate by advocating...

Gold corridor from Dubai to China sought by Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society New Asian gold trading corridor could boost demand for 1 kg gold bars Should increase turnover for yuan-denominated gold coins and bars – President Secure supplies of physical gold from Middle East and Asia for China China positioning itself as leading gold trading and owning nation by Karen Yeung in the SCMP The Chinese Gold &...

Summary China plans to change its constitution to eliminate term limits for President Xi Jinping. Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Perry Warjiyo was nominated by President Widodo to be the next Governor. Bank of Korea Governor Lee was reappointed by President Moon for a second term. Hungary ruling party candidate lost the mayoral vote in Hodmezovasarhely. S&P upgraded Russia to BBB- with stable outlook. South Africa...

There are hundreds of extraordinarily diverse labor markets in the U.S. economy, and it takes a much more granulated approach to make any sense of this highly fragmented and dynamic marketplace. Conventional economists/media pundits typically view the labor market as monolithic, i.e. as one unified market. The reality is the labor market is highly fragmented. Thus it’s little wonder that conventional measures are giving...

Extracting Meaning from PPP “An alternative exchange rate – the purchasing power parity (PPP) conversion factor – is preferred because it reflects differences in price levels for both tradable and non-tradable goods and services and therefore provides a more meaningful comparison of real output.” – the World Bank Headquarters of the World Bank in Washington. - Click to enlarge We have it on good authority that the...

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO)’s quarterly estimates, Swiss real GDP rose by 0.6% q-o-q in Q4 (2.4% q-o-q annualised; 1.9% y-o-y), above consensus expectations (0.5%). The Swiss economy expanded by 1.0% in 2017 overall, in line with our own forecast. This comes after GDP growth of 1.4% in 2016 and 1.2% in 2015. Two aspects of today’s report are worth mentioning. First, on the expenditure...

There was a broad-based setback in euro area business surveys in February, whether in terms of country or of sector. The Flash composite PMI slipped to 57.5 in February from 58.8 in January. The month-to-month dip was the biggest since 2014. National business surveys painted a similar picture. In Germany, the Ifo business climate index dropped by 2.2 points to 115.4 in February, from an all-time high of 117.6 in...