SNB & CHF

Taking Off Like a Rocket There are actually two problems with corporate debt. One is that there is too much of it… the other is that a lot of it appears to be going sour. As a brief report at Marketwatch last week (widely ignored as far as we are aware) informs us: “Businesses racked up debt in the January-to-March period at the fastest pace in three quarters, according to data released Thursday. Business debt grew at...

So where will mobile capital flow in an environment of rising socio-political risk, a multi-year USD uptrend and a dearth of safe, liquid markets? On October 3rd I asked Is the U.S. Dollar Set to Soar? It seems the answer was yes. Here’s the weekly chart of the USD I posted on October 3rd: US Dollar Index - Cash SettleUS Dollar Index - Cash Settle - Click to enlarge And here’s the current weekly chart of the...

  Confidence Gets a Boost Payrolls figures are rising. Stocks rose to new records. As we laid out recently, a better jobs picture should lead the Fed to raise rates. This should cause canny investors to dump stocks. Canny investors at work (an old, but good one…) Cartoon via Pension Pulse - Click to enlarge But the stock market paid no attention. It follows logic of its own. Headlines told us that last...

Combine identity politics with political correctness, and the New Nobility/Oligarchy can laugh their way to the bank while their pawn-serfs fight over how many politically correct angels can dance on the head of a pin. I have long held that our economy is, stripped of propaganda, nothing but an updated version of feudalism, i.e. neofeudal: a vast class of precarious laborers (i.e. precariats–precarious proletariats)...

Credentials are increasingly in over-supply; problem-solving skills are scarce. How do we create value in an economy that is increasingly dependent on knowledge? The answer is complicated by the reality that knowledge is increasingly digital and “unownable” and therefore almost free. Financialization as a substitute for creating value has run its course. The crony-capitalist answer is always the same, of...

Summary Philippine President Duterte will reportedly ask central bank. Governor Tetangco to stay on for a third term. South Africa’s government has proposed a national minimum wage. Fitch moved the outlook on South Africa’s BBB- from stable to negative. Turkey’s central bank surprised markets with a 50 bp hike in its benchmark repo rate to 8.0%. Political risk in Brazil is rising as President Temer’s top aide was...

L’Eurosystem fait sauter les frontières nationales et unifie le système du trafic de paiement… Lors des échanges commerciaux et interbancaires, il y a des banques émettrices de monnaie et vis-à-vis une banque réceptrice. Normalement, à la fin de la journée, tout cela devrait être ramené à l’équilibre. Ceci n’est plus le cas depuis la crise américaine de 2007 (subprimes) comme nous le voyons sur le graphique...

I grew up a block away from the 7-train, where I’d take a short ride from the 90th Street station to the Willets Point–Shea Stadium station to watch my favorite team, the New York Mets. Sitting in the stands as a young child, I learned quickly that there were a number of ways to obtain and interpret information. I could watch the umpire and immediately have known whether Al Leiter threw a strike or a ball. Another...

SMI Swiss pharmaceutical and luxury goods giants pulled the Swiss Market Index (SMI) down again this week as investors dropped large cap firms. Global stocks however continued to rise, along with energy prices, on the promise of Trump’s reflationary administration. The US dollar headed further up, reaching decade highs. SMI Index, November 25 - Click to enlarge Economic Data Better-than-expected economic reports...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, November 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar’s recent gains are being trimmed today, and it is down against all the major currencies. Many emerging market currencies, including the Turkish lira, Indian rupee, and Hungarian forint are firmer today. The dollar’s losses are minor, and the forces that drove it higher remain intact. One of...