SNB & CHF

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. How Not to Predict Gold Prices Sometimes, we think that every story in the gold community has the same template: I have inside information to share with you My peeps are telling me that <XYZ> will happen If <XYZ> happens, then the gold price will go ballistic (<XYZ> will happen, I just know it) So buy...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, November 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar correctly lowered yesterday, but most of the selling was over by the end of the Asian session, and the greenback steadied in Europe and North America.  The dollar is firm against the euro and yen but within yesterday’s broad trading ranges.  The Australian and Canadian dollar’s gains from...

Hidden Motives It is well-known that India’s government wants to coerce its population into “modernizing” its financial behavior and abandoning its traditions. The recent ban on large-denomination banknotes was not only meant to fight corruption. In fact, as our friend Jayant Bhandari has pointed out, fresh avenues for corruption  immediately opened up upon enactment of the ban (see “Gold Price Skyrockets in India...

The US dollar has rallied against both the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan since the end of September.  Through today, the yen has fallen 9.8% and the yuan has fallen by 3.5%. What they have in common is the rise in US interest rates relative to their own.   Since September 30, the US 10-year yield has from below 1.60% to above 2.40% at the end of last week.   Japan’s 10-year yield has risen from minus nine basis points...

Headlines Week November, 25 2016 We explained the Trump reflation trade, where the Swiss Franc acts as the usual inflation hedge against the obviously inflationary policies of Trumpeconomics. Trump is about tax cuts – i.e. a fiscal deficit up to 10%, and about protectionism. Trump would restrict global trade and push up U.S. wages. According to Lars Christensen Trumpeconomics is also about monetary stimulus: Trump...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, November 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates As soon as markets opened in Asia, the greenback was sold, and corrective forces that had been nipping below the surface took hold. The euro, which had finished last week below $1.0590, rallied nearly a cent. Before the weekend, the greenback had pushed to almost JPY114, an eight-month high,  before...

Swiss banks focused on property lending are taking more risks to compensate for the impact of record-low interest rates, increasing the threat of a real-estate bubble, Swiss National Bank Vice President Fritz Zurbruegg said. © Vladek | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge “Exceptionally low interest rates are putting pressure on interest rate margins and this is weighing on the profitability of Swiss banks,” Zurbruegg...

Submitted by Koos Jansen from BullionStar.com Withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which can be used as a proxy for Chinese wholesale gold demand, reached 1,406 tonnes in the first three quarters of 2016. Supply that went through the central bourse consisted of at least 905 tonnes imported gold, roughly 335 tonnes of domestic mine output, and 166 tonnes in scrap supply and other flows recycled...

Stock Markets EM ended last week on a somewhat firmer note, though we note divergences remain in place.  For the week, ZAR and KRW performed the best while TRY and BRL were the worst.  US jobs data Friday will draw some attention, though a December Fed rate hike is pretty much fully priced in.   China reports November PMI readings this week, and should show continued stabilization of the world’s second largest...

Summary: Forces emanating from the US and Europe are driving the capital markets. The moves may be stretched technically, but the market adjustment has further to run as not even two Fed hikes are discounted for next year. European political concerns and an ECB expected to continue its asset purchases have driven German 2-year yields to new record lows. There are powerful moves underway in the capital...