SNB & CHF

Retail sales were thoroughly disappointing in June. Whereas other accounts such as imports or durable goods had at least delivered a split decision between adjusted and unadjusted versions, for retail sales both views of them were ugly. Seasonally-adjusted first, spending last month was down for the second straight time. Worse than that, estimated sales were just barely more than in January. The economy in 2017 is not...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.38% to 1.0987 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates After being shellacked to start the week, the US dollar is being given a small reprieve today as investors await tomorrow’s BOJ and ECB meetings. The US may also report a bounce back in housing starts (residential investment) after a...

© Sam74100 | Dreamstime At 1 June 2017, 3,650 empty homes, of which 2,655 were for rent and 995 for sale, were on the market in Vaud. This brought the vacancy rate to 0.9%, a rise of 0.1% compared to the year before. This rise follows an increase of 0.1% in 2016 from a rate of 0.7% in 2015. The market is considered balanced when the vacancy rate reaches 1.5%. The last time it was above this mark in Vaud was in 1999....

A poster in a Swiss shop window advertises the sale of legal cannabis The rising popularity of marijuana that doesn’t make you high – a product known as “cannabis light” or “CBD cannabis” – is causing a headache for Swiss politicians. It is sold in many Swiss shops and generates millions of Swiss francs in sales. Swiss authorities now ban growing, selling or consuming cannabis with a THC content, the main psychoactive...

“Financial Crisis Of Historic Proportions” Is “Bearing Down On Us” John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics latest research note, Prepare for Turbulence, is excellent and a must read warning about the coming financial crisis. Mind refreshed from what sounds like a wonderful honeymoon and having had the time to read some books outside his “comfort zone” he has come to the conclusion that we are on the verge of  a “major...

Summary: BOE hawk is arguing for a sooner unwind of QE. He did not favor the renewed asset purchases after the referendum. Sterling has been meeting resistance near $1.30 for past two months. Sterling’s advance today is being attributed to comments by a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee McCafferty.  However, we suspect it was a news item that was used to justify the price gains that was...

Since we are this week hypocritically obsessing over monetary policy, particularly the federal funds rate end of it, it’s as good a time as any to review the full history of 21st century “conundrum.” Janet Yellen’s Fed has run itself afoul of the bond market, just as Alan Greenspan’s Fed did in the middle 2000’s. But that latter example wasn’t truly the first conundrum for monetary policy. There remain a great many...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.20% to 1.1007 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates News of the defection of two more Republican Senators doomed the Senate attempt to replace and repeal America’s national health care. The failure to replace the system dubbed Obamacare, despite the Republican majority in both legislative...

Hostages of Irredeemable Scrip Stockholm Syndrome is defined as “…a condition that causes hostages to develop a psychological alliance with their captors as a survival strategy during captivity.” While observers would expect kidnapping victims to fear and loathe the gang who imprison and threaten them, the reality is that some don’t. There is a loose analogy between being held hostage and being an investor in a regime...