SNB & CHF

Industrial Production in the US was revised to a lower level for December 2017, and then was slightly lower still in the first estimates for January 2018. Year-over-year, IP was up 3.7%. However, more than two-thirds of the gain was registered in September, October, and November (and nearly all the rest in just the single month of April 2017). US Industrial Production, Jan 1995 - 2018(see more posts on U.S. Industrial...

Stock Markets EM FX ended on a mixed note Friday, but capped off a very strong week overall. Best performers over the past week were RUB, ZAR, and COP, while the worst were PHP, CNY, and TWD. There is not much happening this week that could disrupt the weak dollar narrative, and so EM FX should continue to rally. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, February 14. Thailand Thailand reports Q4 GDP Monday, with growth...

The US markets are closed on Monday, and many parts of Asia will continue to celebrate the Lunar New Year. The economic schedule is fairly light, and market psychology appears fragile after the dramatic activity in equities and what appears to be shifting macro-relationships. To help navigate the challenging investment climate, we identify four “numbers” that can illuminate the path ahead. The equity market is center...

Switzerland’s famous cheese dish is going down a treat in London, whether in “revisited” form on the Camden Market or in a more classic style on the Borough Market. Valais’ “national dish” is providing inspiration in the UK. (RTS/swissinfo.ch) Switzerland’s famous cheese dish is going down a treat in London, whether in “revisited” form on the Camden Market or in a more classic style on the Borough Market. Valais’ “national dish” is providing inspiration in the UK. --- swissinfo.ch is the...

Tickets cannot be bought on public transport in Switzerland. Passengers are required to have a ticket before boarding. Those caught on public transport without one will soon have their names put into a national register. This will ensure progressively higher fines are issued to repeat offenders. ©_SBB_CFF_FFS - Click to enlarge The new database will be rolled out from April 2019, reported RTS. By the end of 2019, the...

The bright yellow buses carry passengers throughout the Alps The Federal Office of Transport has filed a legal complaint to the Attorney General’s office and judicial authorities of Bern canton in connection with the scandal hitting the Swiss PostBus company. The complaint for possible breaches of administrative law, fraud and mismanagement is filed against unnamed persons. It is also directed against any parts of the...

Global Debt Crisis II Cometh – Global debt ‘area of weakness’ and could ‘induce financial panic’ – King warns– Global debt to GDP now 40 per cent higher than it was a decade ago – BIS warn – Global non-financial corporate debt grew by 15% to 96% of GDP in the past six years – US mortgage rates hit highest level since May 2014– US student loans near $1.4 trillion, 40% expected to default in next 5 years– UK consumer debt...

Copper vs. Oil The Q1 2018 meeting of the Incrementum Fund’s Advisory Board took place on January 24, about one week before the recent market turmoil began. In a way it is funny that this group of contrarians who are well known for their skeptical stance on the risk asset bubble, didn’t really discuss the stock market much on this occasion. Of course there was little to add to what was already talked about extensively...

The scope of this note is to present a score card for Emerging Market (EM)currencies, designed to assess the attractiveness of a given currency over the coming 12 months. The scorecard (see chart), constructed using a rules – based methodology, suggests that the Russian rubble and the Brazilian real are currently among the most attractive EM currencies. EM FX scorecard - Click to enlarge Construction of the EM FX...

Financial writer Charles Hugh Smith sees one very big problem coming at us, and that is a dramatic loss in buying power of the U.S. dollar, but it’s not just the dollar. According to Smith, “All these currencies, there is nothing backing the currencies except the government’s force. That’s the yen, the euro, the dollar and the Chinese yuan. They are all going to have a catastrophic drop against real assets because they are all based on too much leverage, too much debt, too much money...