Tag Archives: newsletter

When Mario Draghi sat down for his scheduled press conference on April 4, 2012, it was a key moment and he knew it. The ECB had finished up the second of its “massive” LTRO auctions only weeks before. Draghi was still relatively new to the job, having taken over for Jean-Claude Trichet the prior November amidst substantial turmoil. The non-standard “flood of liquidity” was an about-face from his predecessor (who had been raising rates in 2011 before the wheels...

Below is a non-exhaustive list of medium- and long-term implications from the Covid-19. We discuss the yuan, China’s competitiveness, its position in the global production chains, the impact on the Phase One trade deal, and rising financial stability risks. Globally, the virus will bring about a new wave of fiscal spending and revive the discussions about the limits of monetary policy. Lastly, we are concerned that the virus may provide further momentum for the...

IGTV interviewed Mark O’Byrne, Research Director at GoldCore about the outlook for gold and silver bullion. He is bullish on both precious metals in the medium and long term. The fundamentals are very strong with strong central bank demand and ETF gold holdings reaching an all time record high due to deepening political and economic risks. Silver at $18/oz and one eightieth of the price of gold is fundamentally undervalued and at some stage it will surge in value to...

The World Trade Organization (WTO) is in a state of crisis. When it comes to trade negotiations among large states like the US, India, and China, the WTO has been shown to be an organization that is largely irrelevant. Despite grandiose dreams of a global trade organization that would enforce global bureaucrats’ broad vision for multilateral trade agreements, the world looks more and more like it neither wants nor needs an organization like the WTO. CNBC reports...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.27% to 1.0592 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Yesterday’s bloodletting in global equities has calmed, but investors remain on edge. Despite all the concerns that the markets were under-appreciating the implications of the new coronavirus, there is a sense that yesterday’s moves were in excess.  Japanese markets, which were...

25.02.2020 – In the 4th quarter 2019, the total employment (number of jobs) in Switzerland rose by 1.2% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.2% with previous quarter). Employment growth has thus been uninterrupted for a decade. In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 1.1%. The Swiss economy counted 3700 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (+5.0%) while the employment outlook indicator fell...

USD/CHF snaps two-day losing streak. Bearish candlestick formation, sustained trading below 200-day SMA favor further selling. Bullish MACD, 50-day SMA question the bears. USD/CHF registers fewer moves while trading around 0.9790 during the pre-European session on Tuesday. The daily chart forms a bearish candlestick pattern but bullish MACD and 50-day SMA could limit further declines. That said, the bears will be more powerful to aim for 0.9700 if breaking a 50-day...

Aktiendepots bei Schweizer Banken befinden sich auf Rekordniveau (Bild: shutterstock) Ende 2019 erreichte der Wertschriftenbestand in den Depots der Schweizer Banken laut den neuesten Daten der Schweizerischen Nationalbank SNB einen neuen Rekordstand von 6,72 Bio. Fr. Die Zunahme belief sich auf fast eine Bio. Franken. Genau waren es 961 Mrd. Fr. bzw. 16,7%. Dieses aussergewöhnliche Wachstum ist vor allem den haussierenden Aktienmärkten zu verdanken. So schnellte...

Unions are worried the vote would weaken protection for workers in Switzerland. (Keystone / Peter Klaunzer) Trade unions have come out against the initiative to scrap the freedom of movement agreement with the European Union, saying a “yes” vote would be “an attack on all workers”. Accepting the right-wing proposal would lead to a situation whereby “collective agreements and wage checks would be replaced by an unfettered competition of all against all,” Swiss Trade...

We certainly don’t have a crystal ball at the ready, and we can’t predict the future. The best we might hope is to entertain reasonable probabilities for it oftentimes derived from how we see the past. Which is just what statistics and econometrics attempt. Except, wherein they go wrong we don’t have to make their mistakes. For example, in the Fed’s main model ferbus there’s no way to input a global dollar shortage. Even if there was, to this statistical...