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Some further odds and ends of European data. Beginning with Continent-wide Industrial Production. Germany is leading the system lower, but it’s not all just Germany. And though manufacturing and trade are thought of as secondary issues in today’s services economies, the GDP estimates appear to confirm trade in goods as still an important condition and setting for all the rest. The weakness is persisting and intensifying – particularly after May 2019. Europe...

USD/CHF surges to seven-day high. Further upside to near-term key resistance-area expected based on the bullish technical indication. Carrying its early week’s gradual recovery forward, USD/CHF rises to a week’s top while taking the bids to 0.9790 ahead of Friday’s European open. While bullish signal via 12-bar moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) increases the pair’s further run-up, the 0.9800/05 area including mid-July lows and early-month high will...

Recent developments in Italy’s political landscape have increased the probability of early elections in Q4 2019, but the situation is not so straightforward. Last week, political tensions in Italy intensified as Matteo Salvini, the League’s leader triggered a no confidence vote against Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. PM Conte will address the Senate on 20 August. A confidence vote will likely follow the speech, though further delays remain a possibility. Once the...

The culprit was a head of strategy at Roche, which is headquartered in Switzerland at the Roche tower in Basel. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has fined Lorenz Erne, a former senior executive at Swiss pharmaceutical firm Roche, for insider trading and ordered him to pay back the ill-gotten profits. Erne accepted the accusations and agreed to the terms of a settlement with the SEC, according to an SEC documentexternal link published on Thursday....

The rules of interpretation that apply to the payroll reports also apply to other data series like retail sales. The monthly changes tend to be noisy. Even during the best of times there might be a month way off trend. On the other end, during the worst of times there will be the stray good month. What matters is the balance continuing in each direction – more of the good vs. more of the bad. Or when what seems to be a good month is less good than it used to be....

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.01% to 1.0841 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The global capital markets are ending the tumultuous week calmly, but it is far from clear that is will hold long. Next week’s flash PMIs have potential to disappoint, and there is risk of new escalation in the US-China trade conflict as the PRC threatens to take action to...

As central banks try (yet again) to bolster faltering growth and inflation, it is important to grasp how the ‘style’ and aims of monetary policy-making have changed over time and how they need to evolve in the future. The world is being disrupted by structural trends such as populism, demographic and climate change and technological innovation. Likewise, with previous approaches producing fewer results, we believe it is time to envisage monetary policies that address...

In a recent comparison of taxi fares across Europe, Geneva and Zurich were the most expensive. © Corepics Vof | Dreamstime.com In the study, which focused on the total cost of a taxi journey from the airport to the centre of town, Geneva (€36 – CHF40) and Zurich (€63 – CHF70) fared better than Milan (€105) and London (€104), which had the highest total journey costs. However, this is only because Zurich and Geneva airports are close to the city centre. The...

Revised estimates from the Federal Reserve are beginning to suggest another area for concern in the US economy. There hadn’t really been all that much supply side capex activity taking place to begin with. Despite the idea of an economic boom in 2017, businesses across the whole economy just hadn’t been building like there was one nor in anticipation of one. The only place where there was a truly robust trend was the oil patch. Since the last crash a few years ago,...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.18% to 1.0859 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: It took some time for investors to recognize that the scaling back of US tariff plans was not part of a de-escalation agreement. There was an explicit acknowledgment by US Commerce Secretary Ross that there was no quid pro quo. The US tariff split was more about the US than an overture...