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Given the exquisite precariousness of the global financial system and economy, hopes for a brief and mild downturn are wildly unrealistic. If we asked a panel of epidemiologists to imagine a virus optimized for rapid spread globally and high lethality, they’d likely include these characteristics: 1. Highly contagious, with an R0 of 3 or higher. 2. A novel virus, so there’s no immunity via previous exposure. 3. Those carrying the pathogen can infect others while...

How many times have you heard that higher taxes mean greater social welfare and economic development? The statement is backed up by a touch of popular wisdom: “More taxes, more public services.” Almost incontestable empirical evidence is also cited: with very few exceptions, the richest countries’ tax rates are very high, whereas taxes in poor countries are relatively low. This article analyzes the statistical relationships that suggest that high tax burdens...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.15% to 1.0588 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The ring of containment of Covid-19 has grown from China. The new frontline is Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Iran. A lockdown of around 50k people near Milan and Austria blocking trains from Italy is scaring investors. Asian markets fell, but South Korea bore the brunt with a...

USD/CHF bounces off the short-term key support confluence comprising 21 and 50-day EMA as well as 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. 200-day EMA, 61.8% Fibonacci challenge buyers amid bullish MACD. USD/CHF registers 0.21% gains while taking the bids around 0.9805 during the early Monday. The pair recently reversed from 21/50-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of October 2019 to January 2020 declines. Also supporting the pullback are bullish signals from MACD. That...

The SNB’s monetary policy is geared to counteracting upward pressure on the Swiss franc against the Euro.  (© Keystone / Ti-press / Alessandro Crinari) The Swiss National Bank’s negative interest rates, introduced five years ago, are having an increasingly significant economic and social impact. But despite criticism, the SNB does not want to remove them. It considers the measure necessary to stop the Swiss franc appreciating too much. Why were negative interest...

A common retort to the claim that in voluntary exchange both parties expect to become better off (or they wouldn’t do it) is that exchanges are seldom, if ever, a matter of horizontal, equal exchange of values. Instead, any such interaction between people is ultimately a matter of their exercising power over one another. The implication, and often explicitly stated conclusion, is that there is no voluntariness, that exploitation is always present, that one party...

The US dollar’s surge alongside gold has eclipsed the equity market rally as the key development in the capital markets. Even the traditional seemingly safe-haven yen was no match for the greenback. The dollar appeared to have been rolling over in Q4 19, as the sentiment surveys in Europe improved, Japanese officials seemingly thought the economy could withstand a sales tax increase, and data suggested the Chinese economy was gaining some traction. However, 2020 has...

The still-growing impact of the coronavirus should keep EM and risk sentiment under pressure this week.  The weekend G20 meeting in Saudi Arabia acknowledged the risks to the global economy and said participants agreed on a “menu of policy options.” However, the G20 offered little specific in terms of a coordinated policy response.  AMERICAS Mexico reports mid-February CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 3.56% y/y vs. 3.18% in mid-January. If so, inflation would...

Crypto employee Hans Bühler, left, after being released from an Iranian prison in 1993. He had been accused of spying. (Keystone / Str) The man tasked with investigating the Crypto spying affair for the Swiss government doesn’t have direct access to all the relevant documents. Niklaus Oberholzer, formerly a federal judge, must ask the federal authorities whenever he wants to access sensitive files. The Federal Council (executive branch), which appointed Oberholzer,...

© Wimseyed | Dreamstime.com Swiss Post has said it will no longer accept packages addressed to China, according to Tribune de Genève. Because of the covid-19 virus, airlines have stopped or drastically reduced flights to China. This fall in air traffic has reduced postal service capacity to China by two thirds. Mail can still be sent if it is marked urgent, however delivery times cannot be guaranteed. Denmark, Georgia, Greece, Romania, Serbia, Singapore, Spain and...