Tag Archives: newsletter

We have been locked down for weeks. Classes have been canceled. Only essential activities are allowed. Although there is much to cover and analyze, I want to focus on the economics of the situation. To understate it, the situation today is simply not good. The COVID-19 crisis has caused the world to lock down the population, which essentially ceased most commerce. While all businesses are affected in some way, a report by the US Chamber of Commerce shows that 24...

Sommaruga (left) met representatives of more than ten tourist associations on Sunday. (Keystone/Anthony Anex) Hopes have been raised of a re-opening of tourist facilities, including restaurants, in Switzerland in June as part of the government’s exit strategy from the coronavirus restrictions. President Simonetta Sommaruga said the government would examine options, coordinated with the tourist industry, by mid-May. “There are a number of options. I think it is...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.42% to 1.0572 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Global equities are beginning the new week on an upbeat note.  All the markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied, led by more than 2% gains in the Nikkei and Taiwan.  European bourses are higher.  All the industry groups are participating and financials and consumer discretionary...

Marcel Ospel (1950-2020). (Keystone/eddy Risch) Ospel, who was ousted from his job as chairman of UBS in 2008 after fallout from the US subprime mortgage crisis, passed away on Sunday due to cancer. Born in Basel in 1950, Ospel began his career in 1977 with the Swiss Bank Corporation, an investment bank, before later engineering its merger with UBS in 1998. Having become chairman in 2001, the beginning of his tenure was marked by the controversial grounding of the...

The FOMC meets Wednesday; first look at Q1 US GDP comes out Wednesday; weekly jobless claims Thursday are expected at 3.5 mln vs. 4.427 mln last week Italy dodged a bullet last Friday; ECB meets Thursday; eurozone reports Q1 GDP and April CPI data ahead of the ECB decision; Sweden’s Riksbank meets Tuesday BOJ meets Monday; Japan has a busy data week after the BOJ meeting The dollar continues to edge higher. On Friday, DXY traded at the highest level since April 6...

(© Keystone / Gaetan Bally) The number of reports of suspected money laundering jumped by about 25% in Switzerland last year. According to the Federal Money Laundering Reporting Officeexternal link, 7,705 reports were filed in 2019, compared to 6,126 the previous year. The office was able to process 4,074 of these reports last year, and forwarded about half (2,024) to the law enforcement agencies, as it stated in its annual reportexternal link published on Thursday....

Our sovereign rating model suggests the US will lose its AAA/Aaa rating.  With fiscal stimulus efforts continuing with this latest $484 bln package, the case for downgrades just keep getting stronger but the timing is unclear.  How might markets react?  We look back to 2011 for some clues. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS The White House and House Democrats struck a deal on a new aid package worth $484 bln.  The extra $500 bln amounts to about 2.5% of GDP.  The IMF estimated...

All over the world, governments and central banks are addressing the pandemic crisis with three main sets of measures: Massive liquidity injections and rate cuts to support markets and credit. Unprecedented fiscal programs aimed at providing loans and grants for the real economy. Large public spending programs, fundamentally in current spending and relief measures. However, they may cause deeper problems than those they aim to solve. When governments try to...

A shortage of frozen butter in Switzerland has the industry wanting to import 1,000 tons. Dairy farmers disagree. On Thursday an umbrella groupexternal link for the dairy sector announced that it had applied to the federal authorities for permission to import 1,000 tons of butter. There are currently 1,500 tons of frozen butter reserves in Switzerland, but the nation would need 4,000-5,000 tons to get through the demand for the rest of the year, says the group....

The virus news stream is negative today; the dollar is trying to build on its recent gains Weekly jobless claims are expected at 4.5 mln vs. 5.245 mln last week; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April continue to roll out ECB confirmed reports that it will accept sub-investment grade debt as collateral; EU leaders will hold a video conference today Preliminary April eurozone PMI readings were awful; UK readings were even worse Japan reported weak preliminary...