Tag Archives: newsletter

Developed equity markets remain near the highs despite mounting concerns about the impact of the coronavirus MSCI World made a new all-time high last week near 2435 and is up 2.5% YTD Our 1-rated grouping (outperformers) for Q1 2020 consists of Ireland, Israel, New Zealand, Spain, and Switzerland Our 5-rated grouping (underperformers) for Q1 2020 consists of the Italy, Germany, Portugal, Japan, and Greece Since our last update on November 19, our proprietary DM...

Negative news on the coronavirus has kept risk appetite subdued across the board; the dollar rally continues During the North American session, we will get some more clues to the state of the US economy; FOMC minutes were largely as expected UK January retail sales came in firm; ECB releases the account of its January 23 meeting Australia reported firm January jobs data; China commercial banks cut lending rates; Indonesia cut rates 25 bp to 4.75%, as expected The...

Free market economics is often ignorantly dismissed for being “ideological” rather than scientific. It probably sounds smart to the economically illiterate, but it is decidedly not. It doesn’t mean nearly what most people assume it does. The word “free” in free market economics is not used as a normative value judgment but indicates an economy that is unaffected by exogenous (from the outside) factors. “Free” therefore means that it is the market economy in and by...

USD/CHF prints another 2020 high and retraces down in the New York session. Bears are challenging the 0.9830 level.  USD/CHF daily chart After hitting yet again a new 2020 high, USD/CHF is easing from session highs. The spot is trading below the 200-day simple moving averages suggesting an overall bearish momentum in the long term. USD/CHF daily chart(see more posts on USD/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge USD/CHF four-hour chart Dollar/Swiss is trading in a rising...

. The Swiss government wants to set aside CHF11.25 billion ($11.43 billion) in development aid for the 2021-2024 period. The governing Federal Council adopted its Strategy for International Cooperation on Wednesday after opening it up for public consultation. It will still have to be approved by parliament. The amount proposed is CHF140 million more than the current aid budget and will cost Swiss taxpayers less than one Swiss franc (CHF0.80) per inhabitant per day....

One of the most common debates that has occurred in the United States for the past six decades is the discussion of the poverty rate. As the narrative goes, the US has an unusually high poverty rate compared to equivalent nations in the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). Although it’s true that the measure of poverty is flawed, especially when compared cross-nationally, this piece addresses the reasons why the poverty rate in the US in...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.08% to 1.0619 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The increase of Covid-19 cases in South Korea and Japan, coupled with China’s changing reverting back to its previous methodology of calculation, dropping clinically-diagnosed cases have again weakened risk appetites and sent the dollar broadly higher. Fears of a Japanese recession...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

(KEYSTONE/GAETAN BALLY) The Swiss Federal Court has ruled that cannabis – the legal, low-THC version – should not be subject to the tobacco tax. Responding to the complaints of three cannabis production companies, the court found that there was no legal basis for a 25% tobacco tax on the sales price of cannabis. The tax will be dropped immediately. In Switzerland, cannabis with a tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) content of less than 1% is legal. It is sold as oil, tea or...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.0617 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: After shunning risk yesterday, investors re-entered the fray today, and the animal spirits returned. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day slide, and China’s markets were among the few losers in the region today. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 recovered yesterday’s losses in...