Tag Archives: newsletter

  A Week to Remember Today we look back to the recent past with singleness of purpose.  Context and edification for the present economy is what we’re after.  We have questions… How come the recovery has been so weak?  Why is it that, nearly seven years after the official end of the Great Recession, the economy’s still mired in a soft muddy quagmire?  Squinting, focusing, and refocusing, there’s one particular week that rises above all others. Photo credit: Talks at Google Hank the...

In the wake of the Panama Papers being released, the U.S.Treasury announced that it will use existing powers in order to make two rule changes that are intended to stop tax evasion. First, in a rule which amends the US Bank Secrecy Act, the Treasury said it will require financial institutions to verify the identity of the real people, or “beneficial owners”, who control companies opening accounts with them. The aim is to prevent true owners of the account from being masked by the names...

  Misinformation and Delusions PARIS – Too bad about Ted Cruz. His tax plan was pretty good. A flat tax of 10% on anything over $36,000. And a 16% “business transfer tax” to replace the corporate income tax and all payroll taxes. Photo credit: David J. Phillip / AP Ted Cruz bows out… allegedly he did so because of losing the Indiana primary. But we know better of course. He read this article, and that was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Sorry ’bout that. Not perfect. But a step...

  Tax Receipts vs. the Stock Market Following the US Treasury’s update of April tax receipts, our friend Mac mailed us a few charts showing the trend in corporate tax payments. Not surprisingly, corporate tax payments and refunds mirror the many signs of a slowing economy that have recently emerged. An overview in chart form follows below. First up, corporate tax receipts in absolute figures. Corporate Tax Receipts Corporate tax receipts in absolute dollars and cents – this is quite...

A New Bull Market in Gold? On April 10, the Incrementum Fund’s advisory board held its quarterly meeting. Two of the regulars (Zac Bharucha and Rahim Taghizadegan) were unable to attend this time, but we were joined by special guest Brent Johnson, the CEO of Santiago Capital. The transcript of the meeting with all charts can be downloaded further below. Gold, June futures contract, daily As indicated, the main (but not the only) topic of the discussion was gold. This was an obvious choice...

Triangle Thrust and Reversal In mid April, we discussed weekly resistance levels in the HUI Index. Given the recent almost blow-off like move in the index and its subsequent reversal, we decided to provide a brief update on the situation. First, here is a daily chart comparing the HUI, the HUI-gold ratio and gold: After building another triangle, the HUI has delivered an upside thrust in the direction of the preceding trend. This is quite normal, and so is the subsequent move back to its...

Submitted by Soren Kern via The Gatestone Institute, A 20-year-old asylum seeker from Iraq confessed to raping a 10-year-old boy at a public swimming pool in Vienna. The Iraqi said the rape was a "sexual emergency" resulting from "excess sexual energy." Those who dare to link spiraling crime to Muslim mass migration are being silenced by the guardians of Austrian multiculturalism. According to data compiled by the Austrian Interior Ministry, nearly one out of three asylum seekers in...

This Great Graphic was posted by Eric Nelson, the managing editor of the Chamber of Commerce’s Above the Fold publication. It shows many of the different components of the 737 single-aisle airplane and where they are sourced.  There is a complex supply chain that stretches from Australia, through Asia (e.g., Japan, South Korea, and China) through Europe (France, Sweden, the UK, and Italy).  It extends into Canada and several US states as well.   Some of the foreign-sourced...

The US dollar is firm, near the best levels of the week against the euro, yen, and sterling. However, against the dollar-bloc and several actively traded emerging market currencies, including the Turkish lira and South African rand, the greenback has given back some of yesterday’s gains.   Oil is snapping a four-day decline.  News that US output fell by 113k barrels a day last week, the biggest drop in eight months, coupled with a Canadian wildfire that is threatening as much as one...

I was invited to discuss the potential impact of a Trump presidency on the US dollar with Bloomberg's with Joe Weisenthal, Oliver Renick, and Alix Steel on "What'd You Miss" show yesterday afternoon, Of course the topic lends itself to all sorts of partisanship.  However, I put aside my own political axes and focused on two potential channels through which could impact the dollar.   The first is through a foreign economic policy that undermines US treaty obligations under various trade...