Tag Archives: newsletter

The old head and shoulders pattern in the dollar against the yen is back in vogue.  We first pointed it out in the first week of January here. Recall the details.  The neckline is drawn around JPY116.30 and measuring objective is near JPY107.00.   That target also corresponds to a 38.2% retracement of the big Abe-inspired dollar rally (~JPY106.80).   This Great Graphic from Bloomberg shows the pattern.   We note the conflicting flows presently.  Portfolio managers continue to be large...

In what is possibly one of the under-appreciated political events of the year, the Netherlands holds a plebiscite today on an associational agreement with Ukraine that has already been approved by the Dutch parliament, the European Parliament and all other 27 EU members.   When stated so baldly, it is difficult to see what is at stake. Yet the consequences of a no vote, which seems likely,  will send reverberations throughout Dutch politics, the EU, and the geopolitical balance in...

The US dollar is better bid today but remains largely in the ranges seen in recent days.  There a few developments to note, which together are lifting European equities after Asian equities softened.   First, the API oil inventory estimate showed an unexpected fall of 4.3 mln barrels.  An increase of half the magnitude was expected.  The DOE estimate, which is considered more reliable, will be one of the North American highlights today.  Second, and also supporting the oil complex today...

(I have been sick with pneumonia but am just about back.  I expect to resume my commentary tomorrow.  Here is my overdue monthly column for a Chinese paper.   Thanks to everyone for their support.)Conspiracy theories have run amok.  After several years of claiming countries were engaged in currency wars, or attempts to drive their currencies down to achieve export advantage, many reporters and analysts announced a volte-face.    At the late February G20 meeting in Shanghai, a secret...

04.04.2016 11:00  - FSO, Social Assistance (0353-1603-30) 10 years of Swiss Social Assistance Statistics Social assistance rate the same as 10 years ago Neuchâtel, 04.04.2016 (BFS) – The Swiss Social Assistance Statistics cover ten years of observation with the latest data from 2014. The social assistance rate was 3.2% in 2005 and is the same today. Over the ten year period, observations from previous years have been confirmed, with children, foreign nationals, divorced persons and those...

There were some fireworks this week. Gold went up on Tuesday (it was a shortened week due to Easter Monday), from a low of $1,215 to $1,244 over the day, a move of over 2 percent. Silver moved from $15.02 to $15.44, almost 3 percent. What happened on Tuesday to drive this move down in the dollar? (We always use italics when referring to gold going up or down, because it is really the dollar going down or up). Janet Yellen happened, that’s what. Our Federal Reserve Chair spoke to the...

The Money Market Event is the biggest feast of the Swiss National Bank and a selected list of money managers that work together with the central bank. It is initiated by important speeches and ended with a generous buffet dinner. In the first speech, Andrea Mächler addressed three points: The expansion of the SNB balances sheet as measure against the so-called “strong franc” in a historic perspective. How the SNB takes over currency risks from the private sector. Details on the balance...

01.04.2016 09:15  - FSO, Economic Surveys (0353-1603-20) Retail trade turnover in February 2016 Swiss retail trade turnover falls by 0.9% Neuchâtel, 01.04.2016 (FSO) – Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.9% in nominal terms in February 2016 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.4% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for...

01.04.2016 09:15  – FSO, Economic Surveys (0353-1603-20)                                         In several press release Swiss Statistics focuses on nominal data:But the data adjusted for inflation is more important: Real retail sales  (adjusted for holidays) -0.3% YoY Real “Core retail sales” (excluding service stations) +0.3% YoY Retail trade turnover in February 2016 Swiss retail trade turnover falls by 0.9% Neuchâtel, 01.04.2016 (FSO) – Turnover in the retail sector fell by...

Gold market analysts have for many years puzzled over the unusual behaviour of the gold market during the 1990s, specifically the bizarrely flat gold price from 1993 to 1996 in the face of sustained selling pressure from central banks and gold miners hedging their production. To-date no one has been able to identify the hidden source of demand that was obviously supporting the gold market during that period. In addition, conventional justifications that accelerated sales by central banks...