As many countries face their second or even third lockdowns (Germany, Austria, Israel), others (Switzerland, the United States) have done what they can to escape such repetitions. Much of the discussion about this drastic move involves its costs. As Covid-19 became pandemic in early 2020, most countries opted for a similar set of measures. They implemented social distancing, slowed down the traffic of people in public spaces and eventually put a stop to large...
Read More »New Opportunities 2021: Fiscal policy for the recovery
This GIS 2021 Outlook series focuses on the opportunities that stem from the upheaval of the past year. Coronavirus vaccine distribution has begun, most probably marking the beginning of the end of the global health crisis. A receding pandemic will leave behind intertwined economic and fiscal challenges for countries around the world. Those that address rising debts with expenditure-based reforms in 2021 and eschew higher taxes can expect to benefit from faster and...
Read More »Vaccine Passports Are a Terrible Idea
Vaccine rollout is advancing at snail pace in the European Union. At the same time, countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel are moving quickly to get large parts of the population vaccinated as promptly as possible. As Europe debates the success or failure of its vaccine policy, some countries want to be one step ahead and discuss the possibility of so-called vaccine passports. The concept is straightforward: those who have been...
Read More »Fear of Collapse for Small Businesses
The coronavirus has dominated all of our lives in recent months. Radical paths were taken by politicians in the form of lockdowns to contain the pandemic. But we should recognize that even if the coronavirus is a (major) challenge for us, we always have to keep a holistic view of world events. Just as there are epidemiological factors to consider in this crisis, there are also economic, social, cultural, political and other health factors at play. It is precisely...
Read More »A Future Hunger Pandemic
The coronavirus has dominated all of our lives in recent months. Radical paths were taken by politicians in the form of lockdowns to contain the pandemic. But we should recognize that even if the coronavirus is a (major) challenge for us, we always have to keep a holistic view of world events. Just as there are epidemiological factors to consider in this crisis, there are also economic, social, cultural, political and other health factors at play. It is precisely...
Read More »Deflation: Friend or Foe?
Deflation is the most feared economic phenomenon of our time. The reason behind this a priori irrational fear (why should we be afraid of prices going down?) is the Great Depression. The most severe economic crisis of the 20th century was accompanied by a massive deflationary spiral that pushed prices down by 25% between 1929 and 1932 (this is equivalent to an annualized inflation rate of minus 7% over that period). Given the impact that the Great Depression...
Read More »The Costs of Coronavirus Lockdowns
Throughout the next weeks, we will regularly feature statistics showing some of the costs of the prevailing lockdown politics. This article is an introduction to this new series. All over Europe, life has come to a halt again. As a second wave of Coronavirus infections has arrived, social and economic life has largely once more, as was already the case in spring when COVID-19 first spread across the world. Spain, France, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Italy,...
Read More »Oil market outlook: Land in sight but rough seas ahead
In November, new vaccines showed great promise in fighting Covid-19, and the exhilaration was clear in markets around the world. However, the enthusiasm was not sustained. Many experts and political leaders rushed to warn that while a vaccine could mean the end of the health crisis, the economy – and oil markets in particular – are still in for a rough ride. The previous mechanism whereby the virus drove the economy,...
Read More »This Pandemic Has Too Many Predictable “I Told You So’s”
Most of Europe is back in lockdown, presumably as punishment for our sins of going outside during the summer, and as preparation for the Christmas holidays. It feels like being back in school, where a patronizing teacher indicates that the children are incapable of behaving themselves. To some Europeans, this is a surprising development. Yet to lovers of liberty, the fact that power leads to ever-expanding power is no news. There are many “I told you so’s” in this...
Read More »