In November, new vaccines showed great promise in fighting Covid-19, and the exhilaration was clear in markets around the world.

However, the enthusiasm was not sustained. Many experts and political leaders rushed to warn that while a vaccine could mean the end of the health crisis, the economy – and oil markets in particular – are still in for a rough ride. The previous mechanism whereby the virus drove the economy, which in turn determined oil demand and therefore prices, appears to have been broken.

The good news is that the world is not sailing in the dark anymore. Lights have been spotted. However, until the ship reaches the shore, many risks remain. The sea can still turn rough and the land in sight may turn out to be unfamiliar territory.

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