SNB & CHF

John Hussman on Recent Developments We always look forward to John Hussman’s weekly missive on the markets. Some people say that he is a “permabear”, but we don’t think that is a fair characterization. He is rightly wary of the stock market’s historically extremely high valuation and the loose monetary policy driving the surge in asset prices. As he reminds his readers in this week’s market comment, he altered his...

Preposterous Lies Elizabeth received a strange letter from her congressman. “We have to be on guard against our enemies… and not be afraid to name them.” A brave, forthright stand? But wait, he didn’t name the enemies. That left us wondering: Who are our enemies? Muslims, Jews, Arabs… Russians, Iranians, North Koreans… capitalists, the Deep State, Yankees… liberals, conservatives? And what does he mean by “our”? A...

Germany The start of next week will likely be driven by Deutsche Bank’s travails and dollar funding pressures, which may or may not be related. The end of the week features the US monthly jobs report. Despite being a noisy, high frequency time series subject to significant revisions, this report like none other can drive expectations of Fed policy. Deutsche Bank is faced with two challenges: its business and several...

Natalie Obiko Pearson and Katia Dmitrieva, writing for Bloomberg, look at the UBS 2016 Global Real Estate Bubble Index report. While Switzerland’s two main cities, Zurich and Geneva, are not described as having “Bubble risk” they are in the next category: “Overvalued”. Vancouver, London and Stockholm rank as the cities most at risk of a housing bubble after a surge in prices in the past five years, according to a UBS...

Deep in the Swiss Alps, next to an old airstrip suitable for landing Gulfstream and Falcon jets, is a vast bunker that holds what may be one of the world’s largest stashes of gold. The entrance, protected by a guard in a bulletproof vest, is a small metal door set into a granite mountain face at the end of a narrow country lane. Behind two farther doors sits a 3.5-ton metal portal that opens only after a code is...

Summary The US dollar fell against most of the major currencies in Q3.  The Norwegian krone was the best performer, gaining 4.4% against the greenback.  It was helped by higher oil prices and a shift away from an easing bias by the central bank.  The relatively high interest rates offered by Australia and New Zealand underpinned their currencies, which gained 2.7% and 2.0% respectively. The dollar rose against three...

via Le Matin. The Ethos Foundation recently published a list of Switzerland’s highest paid employees in 2015. The figures are striking and may leave some wondering what someone would do with such large sums. There’s plenty of money at the top – © Hai Huy Ton That | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge Ethos looks at the pay of the managers of the 204 largest companies listed on the Swiss stock exchange. Ethos‘ members are...

Marc Chandler speaks of the volatility of the CHF speculative positioning. For us this was window dressing by the SNB that wants to improve the quarterly results. Traders react to the strong market movement caused by the SNB and they close their long CHF positions. If it was really the SNB, we will see on Monday with the SNB Sight Deposits. In the week after the BOJ and FOMC meetings, speculators made several...

When the central banks of three European countries and the European Central Bank (ECB) itself introduced negative interest rates (NIR)  in mid -2014, many considered it be a temporary measure, a new experiment in monetary policy. But when the Bank of Japan did the same in January 2016  and when the ECB  pushed rates further into negative territory in March 2016, the international investment world stood up and took...

Panic Pause The sudden panic about a potentially imminent Italian banking sector collapse back in July has somewhat subsided for now, but sooner or later the issue will inevitably rear its ugly head again. The impressive headquarters of the world’s oldest surviving bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Piazza Salimbeni Photo credit: Stefano Rellandini / Reuters - Click to enlarge Two months after Italian bank stocks...