SNB & CHF

Investec Switzerland. SMI The Swiss Market Index is set to close slightly higher this week, outperforming global equities thanks to defensive heavyweights such as Nestlé and Novartis. Click to enlarge. Pessimism hit European shares at the beginning of the week as sliding oil prices and bank stress test results helped revive concerns over the strength of the recovery and stability of the financial...

05.08.2016 09:15  – FSO, Tourism (0353-1607-30) Statistics on tourist accommodation in June and in the first half of 2016 Overnight stays decline in first half-year and in June Neuchâtel, 05.08.2016 (FSO) – The hotel sector registered 16.8 million overnight stays in Switzerland during the first sixth months of 2016. This represents a decrease of 1.2% (-199,000 overnight stays) compared with the same period a year...

Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc appreciated today against the euro. Given that the Bank of England started monetary easing, this slight appreciation is unexpectedly weak – reason was probably intervention. The SNB intervention level should be around 1 billion francs. Numbers revealed in next week’s sight deposits. Click to enlarge. Bank of England The Bank of England owns today, though tomorrow will be about the US...

In a month, quarter and year, in which many have scratched their heads trying to answer just who is buying stocks, as both retail and smart money investors have been aggressively selling… Click to enlarge. … yesterday we got the answer. In the second quarter, the Swiss National Bank added $7.3 billion to its US equity portfolio, and according to its just filed 13-F, is now long a record $61.8 billion in US stocks, up...

Meet the Scapegoats Last week, an Irish court sentenced three prominent banksters for their roles in the 2008 financial crisis.  Judge Martin Nolan, who pronounced judgment, said that the bansksters had committed “a very serious crime.”  He continued: “The public is entitled to rely on the probity of blue chip firms. If we can’t rely on the probity of these banks we lose all hope or trust in institutions.”* Meet the...

Bern, 04.08.2016 – Consumer sentiment remained unchanged between April and July 2016* and is now below the long-term average for the fifth quarter in a row. Most sub-indices also saw no major change, except regarding inflation, with the 1,200 or so individuals questioned expecting prices to rise more sharply over the next twelve months than they had in April. There was also a belief in July that prices had been rising...

Summary: BOE cuts rates and expands QE. Door is open to more easing. Sterling stabilizes after selling off 2 cents. Sterling has slumped two cents in the wake of the Bank of England’s announcement.  It cut the base rate 25 bp and announced a resumption of its asset purchase program.  It will buy GBP60 bln of Gilts and added corporate bonds to its purchase plan, which will be completed over the next six...

  Secular Stagnation OUZILLY, France – Both our daughters have now arrived at our place in the French countryside. One brought a grandson, James, now 14 months old. He walks along unsteadily, big blue eyes studying everything around him. He adjusted quickly to the change in time zones. And he has adjusted to the French culture, too – he likes gnawing on a piece of tough local bread. But when she has trouble getting...

What is the real interest rate? It is the nominal rate minus the inflation rate. This is a problematic idea. Let’s drill deeper into what they mean by inflation. You can’t add apples and oranges, or so the old expression claims. However, economists insist that you can average the prices of apples, oranges, oil, rent, and a ski trip at St. Moritz. This is despite problems that prevent them from agreeing on what should...

Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is consolidating yesterday’s losses.  The greenback’s upticks have thus far been shallow and unimpressive, except perhaps against the New Zealand dollar, which is off 0.8% ahead of next week’s RBNZ meeting.  Softer than expected labor cost increase reinforces the conviction that a 25 bp rate cut will be delivered next week. The asset markets are more...