SNB & CHF

Is Stagflation a Potential Threat? The Incrementum Fund held its quarterly advisory board meeting on October 3 (the transcript can be downloaded below). Our regular participants – the two fund managers Ronald Stoeferle and Mark Valek, advisory board members Jim Rickards, Frank Shostak and yours truly –  were joined by special guest Grant Williams this time. Many of our readers probably know Grant; he is the author of...

Exposing the Clintons’ perfection of a corrupt political system won’t change the conditions and incentives that created the Clintons’ harvester of corruption. Let’s set aside Hillary Clinton as an individual and consider her as the perfection of a corrupt political system. As I noted yesterday, Politics As Usual Is Dead, and Hillary Clinton is the ultimate product of the political system that is disintegrating before...

Erroneous Expectations Many market observers are probably expecting crude oil prices to enter a seasonal uptrend due the beginning heating season. After all, the heating season in the Northern hemisphere means that energy consumption will rise. The effect of the heating season on demand is however offset by other factors, such as the use of alternative energy sources and fixed prices agreements made in advance. The...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: Not only is Carney not resigning, but he agreed to stay a year longer than initially agreed. He will stay for the two years that Brexit is negotiated. Sterling rallied, but did not challenge last week’s highs. Marc Carney Bank of England - Click to...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: Fed does not expand much on Sept. statement. Bar to December hike seems low. There were two rather than three dissents. FOMC - Click to enlarge The FOMC did not break new ground and the statement was as widely expected. It indicated that the case for...

The weekly speculative position shows increasing short positions on the euro and on the Swiss Franc. On the other side, both currencies have appreciated, what they should not do if net short positions increase. Therefore there is a different phenomenon.  Real money, .e.g in the form of cash, bonds, stocks or real estate that is invested in the euro area or in Switzerland. For Switzerland, we will see this in the...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: The UK High Court defends Parliament’s right to vote before Article 50 is triggered. The decision will be appealed. Sterling approached an important resistance as it extended its rally for the fifth session. The UK High Court ruled that Parliament has the...

Comment on Swiss Franc by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Swiss Franc With the not convincing U.S. jobs number, both the EUR and, in particular, the Swiss Franc could improve. With continuing political uncertainty in the U.S., more speculators closed their short CHF positions. Moreover, I expect significant...

Statistics on tourist accommodation in September 2016 Increase in overnight stays in September Neuchâtel, 04.11.2016 (FSO) – The Swiss hotel industry registered 3.4 million overnight stays in September 2016, which corresponds to a growth of 0.7% (+23,000 overnight stays) compared with September 2015. Domestic visitors registered 1.6 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 1.0% (+16,000). Foreign visitors...

SMI The SMI is set to finish the week notably lower as investors continue to dump equities amid worries about the implications of next week’s US election, the trajectory of interest rates and mixed corporate earnings. SMI Index, November 4 - Click to enlarge Economic Data Until a week ago the market had confidently calculated a Clinton win but new FBI investigations appear to have put Trump firmly back in the...