Precious Metals Nowhere Near Cycle Highs – Brace for Gains!

Source: Finiz.com

◆ Gold is the top performing asset in the world in the first half of 2020, outperforming all stock markets including the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq and outperforming “safe haven” U.S. government bonds (see table above).Gold had an 18% gain in dollars in the first half of 2020 as risk assets, especially stock markets, fell sharply with the S&P down 4.5% and other stock markets down more than 10% (see table). Gold gained 18.6% in euros and by 25% in British pounds as the UK economy had the worst contraction since 1979 and the pound was further devalued.

The historical data in the last 20 to 40 years shows that seasonally gold and silver tend to do poorly in June and very well in the summer months in July and August and extending into September. Indeed late June

A resurgent coronavirus pandemic in the United States and the prospect of improving growth abroad are souring some investors on the dollar, threatening a years-long rally in the currency.

This is an interesting interview between Professor Brian Lucey and Dr. Fergal O’Connor, lecturer in finance and economics at University College Cork (UCC) on gold’s performance as a safe haven asset in the last 200 hundred years and in recent history including the 2008-2012 global financial crisis. 

Gold futures ended higher for a fifth straight session Thursday, with the most-active contract just short of notching a settlement record, highlighting feverish demand for bullion amid the worst pandemic in over a century.

The King Report“Anyone that’s been around the block a few times with gold knows that at some point ‘they’ will stage a concerted effort to drive gold lower.” December gold hit $2,000 at 21:19 ET Monday. It then retreated and traded sideways until 22:50 ET. Then someone slammed gold down to $1,955 in 20 minutes. This is obvious “impact trading.” Gold then traded sideways for over four hours.

Investment in gold has risen during pandemic. The value of gold coins and bars stored for clients by Irish precious metals broker GoldCore has surged 68pc so far this year to more than €100m.

The value of gold coins and bars stored for clients by Irish precious metals broker GoldCore has surged 68pc so far this year to more than €100m.

Gold prices last week topped the $2,000-per-ounce level for the first time as investors seek havens from the pandemic.

“We are seeing demand on a scale which has not been seen since the early stages of the global financial crisis in 2009 and we expect that to continue in the coming months,” said GoldCore CEO Stephen Flood.

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold loses ground as dollar firms; investors eye U.S. stimulusSilver rallies over 6%; Gold ends higher as China-U.S. tensions seen escalatingWhy Is Everyone Buying Gold?Yields hold near historic lows on economic slowdown fears

Dollar

Since it’s sell-off from it’s early August high, gold has been stuck in an ever decreasing range. Having had a remarkable rally to an intra-day high of $2,078 on the 7th of August Gold has traded sideways and consolidated. This has been viewed by many market commentators as a healthy pause in gold’s bull rally as when markets go parabolic they tend to retrace just as fast.

Anxiety about an increase in Covid19 cases and fears of a second wave coupled with revelations of historic money laundering practices of major global banks weighed heavily on financial markets yesterday.