Reflections on Nuclear War and Immigration

by
Jacob G. Hornberger
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Those who scoff at the notion that nuclear war between the United States and Russia is an increasing possibility have an advantage in the argument. If they prove to be correct, they will be able to crow, “See, I told you worrywarts that there was nothing to be concerned about. Putin wasn’t about the start a nuclear war no matter how much we pushed, provoked, and dared him.”

On the other hand, if there is a nuclear war, those of us who warned about that increasing possibility won’t be around to exclaim, “We told you so. You should have listened to us.” Well, at the very least, we won’t be able to do it on X given the shortage of wi-fi during such a war.

What is fascinating is that the U.S. national-security establishment and its supporters are actually willing to risk such a war. They were so certain that, with the help of the United States, Ukraine would easily defeat Russia in a war that U.S. officials provoked with their NATO antics. Today, realizing that they were wrong, the Pentagon, CIA, and NSA, which are the ones who are really calling the shots in the Ukraine operation, are willing to do anything to prevent a Russian victory, even if it entails pushing, provoking, and daring Vladimir Putin to do something drastic. A U.S.-Ukraine defeat at the hands of their decades-old official enemy Russia, coming on the heels of the catastrophic results of their military escapades in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam, is just too hard a pill to swallow.

Proponents of increasing provocations against Russia are quick to point out that the naysayers were wrong about nuclear war in 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Everything worked out, they say, and so the fears of all-out nuclear war between the Soviet Union and the United States were ill-founded.

However, they forget two important things:

First, the U.S. national-security establishment, not realizing that the Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba were armed and ready to be fired, was demanding that President Kennedy bomb and invade Cuba at the height of the crisis. If Kennedy had complied with that demand, it is virtually certain that there would have been an all-out nuclear war between the two nations. It was Kennedy’s wisdom and courage — and his willingness to take a stand against the national-security establishment — that prevented that from happening. After Kennedy resolved the crisis with a deal he made with Russia, the Joint Chiefs of Staff considered him to be a weak sister whose actions were comparable to those of Neville Chamberlain at Munich.

Second, the U.S. national-security establishment wanted a nuclear war with Russia. They knew that they had vast nuclear superiority over Russia and were convinced that a first-strike surprise nuclear attack against Russia, similar to Japan’s surprise attack at Pearl Harbor, would knock out much of Russia’s nuclear response capability. To his everlasting credit, JFK walked out of the meeting where such a plan was proposed, stating indignantly, “And we call ourselves the human race.” One can only wonder whether that pro-nuclear-war mindset within the early 1960s national-security establishment was passed down through the decades to the current 2024 national-security establishment.

There is a valuable lesson to be gained with respect to immigration by hypothesizing about nuclear war. Let’s assume that a nuclear war between Russia and the United States does occur. Mushroom clouds are popping up in cities all across the United States. To get a sense of what that would look like, take a look at this trailer for the television series “Fallout.” Alternatively, look at the current catastrophic situation in western North Carolina from Hurricane Helene, multiply it by a thousand, and apply it to cities and towns all across America.

Let’s assume that 20 million Americans survive the war but know that they will die if they stay here or move to Canada, where much of the nuclear radiation has spread. Let’s also assume that Mexico, Central America, and South America are not hit with any bombs and that life is pretty much normal in that part of the world.

One can imagine that many of those 20 million Americans would start moving south in a desperate attempt to save their lives — and the lives of their families — from nuclear radiation. However, when they get to the U.S.-Mexico border, they encounter the Mexican Border Patrol, the Mexican military, and the immigration concertina wall that the Mexican government has quickly constructed. Mexican officials refuse to permit the American refugees to cross the border and enter Mexico. The American refugees exclaim, “But we will die if we stay here. Our children will die. Our spouses will die. We need to come in.”

But the Mexican officials respond, “No, our immigration system is very similar to yours. We can’t handle such a big increase in population all at once. It would be too much of a burden on our welfare system, our infrastructure, our hospitals, and our public schools. You need to put in an application. I promise you that we will get back to you within a few short years. In the meantime, you need to just get in line.” The other Latin American countries take the same position.

My hunch is that many of those 20 million Americans, especially the ones with children, would say, “To hell with your immigration law” and do everything they could to circumvent Mexico’s immigration-control system, even hiring black-market transporters to help them get across the border. On the other hand, I’m sure that some of those Americans, especially those who are ardent supporters of America’s immigration-control system, who would say to their spouses and children, “The Mexicans are right. The law is the law. We have to obey it. We will just stay here in the United States and wait a few years for Mexican officials to rule on our application to enter the country legally.”