SNB & CHF

  The Transition   “The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better.” Ron Paul The intricate relationship between energy markets and our global financial system, can be...

Summary: Key event in Europe is not on many calendars–it is a ruling by the European Court of Justice. UK government and Tory Party stabilizing, leaving the Labour Party in disarray. US economy appears to have accelerated into the end of Q2. BOJ’s meeting at the end of the month. Four large dramas being played out among the major high income countries. The drama in the eurozone moves center stage in the...

The combination of a robust US jobs report, speculation of bolder action by Japan, the possibility that the ECB drops the capital key to overcome the ostensible shortage of some core bonds (e.g. German bunds), and the anticipation of easier BOE policy appears to have generated a change in sentiment among speculators in the currency futures market. A pattern was clear in the speculative position adjustments in the...

Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc continues to under-perform the dollar index in the month after Brexit.   Click to enlarge. Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket) On a three years interval, the Swiss Franc had a weak performance. The dollar index was far stronger. The dollar makes up 40% of the SNB portfolio and of...

Status quo, as our generation know it, established in 1945 has plodded along ever since. It is true that it have had near death experiences several times, especially in August 1971 when the world almost lost faith in the global reserve currency and in 2008 when the fractional reserve Ponzi nearly consumed itself. While the recent Brexit vote seem to be just another near death experience we believe it says something...

  Meaningless Noise BALTIMORE – The Dow rose 250 points on Friday… putting it back near its all-time high. A “blow-out jobs report” was said to be the inspiration. Oh my… so many dots.. so little time. Friday’s jobs report said that 278,000 Americans found work in June – up from 11,000 in May.  This was considered such good news that investors rushed to buy stocks. At least, that was the line taken by the mainstream...

Since the UK voted to leave the EU, emerging market equities have outperformed equities from the developed markets.  This Great Graphic, composed on Bloomberg, shows the MSCI Emerging Market equities (yellow line) and the MSCI World Index of developed equities (white line). Both time series are indexed as to June 15, but they were at nearly identical levels as the UK voted.  The developed market equities fell more...

Growing numbers of Arab visitors to southern Switzerland were helping save the region’s tourist industry. But now a ‘burka ban’ is in force, which could turn many away. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) Italian-speaking Ticino became the first and only Swiss canton to introduce a ban on any face covering headgear, which came into effect on July 1. The first fine was handed out on the same day to a Swiss niqab-wearing Muslim from Zurich who travelled to Ticino in defiance of the law. Hotels in the region...

A new study on improvements to the army suggests opening conscription to women. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) Experts evaluating the challenges facing the Swiss conscription system after 2030 have suggested considering universal compulsory service. This could potentially include service in the army for women and for foreigners living in Switzerland. The study, released by the government on Thursday, looked at potential changes which could be made to take advantage of the needs of Swiss society and...

Basel police want prostitutes to respect the law when it comes to looking for business in the city. To do this, they’ve come up with an unusual solution. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) After complaints from people living in Basel’s red light district, the authorities marked out areas where prostitutes are allowed to stand with special green pictograms. The authorities estimate the numbers of sex workers in Basel to be around 800. Between 30 and 50 actually work on the streets, and the remainder work in...