SNB & CHF

EM and other risk assets rallied on Friday after the strong US jobs data.  It appears that markets are pricing in a benign backdrop for risk near-term; that is, the US economy is recovering but not by enough to warrant an imminent Fed rate hike.  The July 27 meeting seems unlikely, and so the next likely window would be September 21.  Yet EM typically weakens in the run-up to FOMC meetings and so investors should...

Summary: Electoral politics remains significant. BOE is likely to cut rates, while BoC may tilt more dovishly. US Q2 earnings season formally begins. Investors are under siege.  A growing proportion of bonds in Europe and Japan offer negative yields. The German and Japanese curves are negative out 15-years, while one cannot find a positive yield among any tenor of Swiss government bonds.   Despite a string of...

Faking It   Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy’s tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. […] The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. — Alan Greenspan, 1961 He was in it for the power...

  Consequences of Central Bank Policies The existing capital stock continues to be frittered away at the expense of savers and retirees.  Nonetheless, central bankers don’t give a doggone about it.  This, after all, is one consequence of roughly eight years of near zero interest rate policy. Central planning superheros, leaving a wasteland behind… Image credit: Steve Epting 30 year bond yield Another related...

Permaculture is an agriculture system based on combining plants to simulate patterns in natural ecosystems. For some it's proving an effective method for controlling pests. (RTS/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch or subscribe to our YouTube channel: Website:...

Swiss Franc Currency Index In the Brexit month, the Swiss franc index clearly underperformed the dollar index. The major reason is that the dollar is seen as a better safe-haven than the Swiss Franc, possibly because Swiss sales are affected more when British demand falls. Click to enlarge. Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency...

The UK voted to leave the EU. The German and Japanese yield curve is negative out through 15 years.  The entire Swiss curve have negative yields.  There is little doubt that the US economy was recovering from a soft six-month stretch even before the recent string of data.  And even then speculators in the futures market mostly added to foreign currency exposures. In five of the eight currency futures, we track,...

Swiss Franc The Non-Farm Payrolls for June were very positive, even if Marc Chandler is not totally convinced. Good job data in the United States are typically positive for both USD and EUR, because the odds of a rate hike are increasing. Consequently the EUR/CHF rose. In the last two days SNB interventions should have been smaller. The Swiss (seasonally adjusted) unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.3%. Click to...

Political tensions on the Korean peninsula are rising The IMF cut its growth forecasts for South Africa Brazil announced its 2017 budget target In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Hungary (+3.0%), UAE (+2.0%), and Qatar (+0.7%) have outperformed this week, while Mexico (-3.4%), South Africa (-2.1%), and Colombia (-1.7%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM fell -1.2% this week while...

Netherlands 10Y Yield For the first time in Dutch history, 10Y government bond yields have turned negative (-0.001% intraday) closing at 0.00%… Click to enlarge. Joining Switzerland, Japan, Germany, and Denmark… Pushing Global NIRP bonds over the $13 trillion! Click to enlarge. Chart: Bloomberg