SNB & CHF

There are few industries that offer a picture glass window to see numerous macroeconomic forces as steel does.   Excess capacity, trade policy, and the yuan all intersect when looking at the steel industry.   Moreover, it also shed light on why the drop of energy and other commodity prices, such as iron ore, have not bolstered the steel industry, let alone the general economy, as many expected.   At the heart of the problem is that globally there is greater capacity to produce steel than...

There are few industries that offer a picture glass window to see numerous macroeconomic forces as steel does.   Excess capacity, trade policy, and the yuan all intersect when looking at the steel industry.   Moreover, it also shed light on why the drop of energy and other commodity prices, such as iron ore, have not bolstered the steel industry, let alone the general economy, as many expected. At the heart of the problem is that globally there is greater capacity to produce steel than...

After another soggy Asian session, European markets have begun on a firm note, and US shares are trading broadly higher in Europe as well.  Led by the beleaguered financial shares, and healthcare, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 2%.  Similarly, the peripheral bonds, including Portugal (though not Greece) are seeing a reprieve from the recent selling.  Spanish and Italian 10-year benchmark bonds are off 5-6 bp while the Portuguese yield is off 10 bp.  The yield on JGBS, bunds, gilts and...

After another soggy Asian session, European markets have begun on a firm note, and US shares are trading broadly higher in Europe as well.  Led by the beleaguered financial shares, and healthcare, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 2%.  Similarly, the peripheral bonds, including Portugal (though not Greece) are seeing a reprieve from the recent selling.  Spanish and Italian 10-year benchmark bonds are off 5-6 bp while the Portuguese yield is off 10 bp.  The yield on JGBS, bunds, gilts and...

Portugal's 10-year bond yield has almost 120 bp this year.  It is one of the few eurozone members that still pay to borrow two-year money.   There are two set of drivers.  One set is country specific.  These may matter only to current or prospective investors.  The other set of considerations may have broader applicability.  This means that even those without direct exposure may want to take note of developments in Portugal.   There are a few country-specific considerations that are...

Portugal's 10-year bond yield has risen almost 120 bp this year.  It is one of the few eurozone members that still pay to borrow two-year money.   There are two set of drivers.  One set is country specific.  These may matter only to current or prospective investors.  The other set of considerations may have broader applicability.  This means that even those without direct exposure may want to take note of developments in Portugal. There are a few country-specific considerations that are...

Investors and policymakers continue to wrestle with the economic impact of the dollar's rise.  The Federal Reserve has argued that the dollar's appreciation acts as a headwind on exports and dampens imported inflation.  At the same time, despite the dollar's appreciation and the fall in oil prices, core inflation rose steadily last year. Core CPI rose from 1.6% at the end of 2014 to 2.1% at the end of 2015.  The core PCE deflator lagged, but the after bottoming last July below 1.26%, it...

Investors and policymakers continue to wrestle with the economic impact of the dollar's rise.  The Federal Reserve has argued that the dollar's appreciation acts as a headwind on exports and dampens imported inflation.  At the same time, despite the dollar's appreciation and the fall in oil prices, core inflation rose steadily last year. Core CPI rose from 1.6% at the end of 2014 to 2.1% at the end of 2015.  The core PCE deflator lagged, but the after bottoming last July below 1.26%, it...

After a meltdown in Asia, the global capital markets are stabilizing in Europe.   The US S&P managed to recoup about half of its losses before the close yesterday, but this gave not comfort to Japanese investors.  The yen's strength and ongoing concerns about banks' exposure to energy companies took the down 5.4% and pushed the 10-year JGB yield into negative territory for the first time.   The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off 0.25% near midday in London.  Telecoms and consumer staples are...

After a meltdown in Asia, the global capital markets are stabilizing in Europe.   The US S&P managed to recoup about half of its losses before the close yesterday, but this gave not comfort to Japanese investors.  The yen's strength and ongoing concerns about banks' exposure to energy companies took the down 5.4% and pushed the 10-year JGB yield into negative territory for the first time. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off 0.25% near midday in London.  Telecoms and consumer staples are...