SNB & CHF

During a period in which the zero bound no longer is the floor of interest rates, and many central banks continue to ease policy,  we have been watching gold a bit closer.   In early January, we noted that the technical pattern warned of breakout.  Our first objective was $1110-$1135.  In early February, we updated our view with gold trading near $1150. The charts still looked constructive; we suggested a new target near $1200.   The increasingly precious metal rose to almost $1263.5o on...

It could have been a disaster.  US faltered yesterday, with the S&P 500 again struggling in the 1945-1950 area, and China's PMIs were weaker than expected.  However,  after initial weakness Asian shares turned higher.  The nearly 0.9% rise allowed the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to close at its best level in five sessions. European bourses are firmer, led by the 1.2% rise in the German DAX.    The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 0.6% near midway through the session.  Consumer discretionary,...

01.03.2016 09:15  - FSO, Economic Surveys (0353-1602-20) Retail trade turnover in January 2016 Swiss retail trade turnover falls by 1.3% Neuchâtel, 01.03.2016 (FSO) – Turnover in the retail sector fell by 1.3% in nominal terms in January 2016 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.5% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales...

01.03.2016 09:15  – FSO, Economic Surveys (0353-1602-20) Retail trade turnover in January 2016 Swiss retail trade turnover falls by 1.3% in nominal term, +0.2% yoy in retail Neuchâtel, 01.03.2016 (FSO) – Turnover in the retail sector fell by 1.3% in nominal terms in January 2016 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.5% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the...

In a recent article by Kessler Companies (hat tip Zerohedge) they correctly point out that inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, have a tendency to accelerate as the US economy moves into a recession. Contrary to popular belief, the beginning of a recession is not deflationary but the exact opposite. As can be seen from the chart, consumer prices do indeed move higher into recessions as represented by the shaded areas. Why? The most obvious explanation is simply that the...

In a recent article by Kessler Companies (hat tip Zerohedge) they correctly point out that inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, have a tendency to accelerate as the US economy moves into a recession. Contrary to popular belief, the beginning of a recession is not deflationary but the exact opposite. As can be seen from the chart, consumer prices do indeed move higher into recessions as represented by the shaded areas. Why? The most obvious explanation is simply that the...

What is the issue?    The UK has long had a strained relationship with the EU and has never been comfortable with the ever increasing drive for greater integration and harmonization of rules and regulations coming from Brussels.  As the EU has grown, more decisions are made by a qualified majority.  Previously decision required unanimity.  The shift weakens the power of a UK veto.    The UK Prime Minister has called for a national referendum on continued UK membership of the EU.  When...

What is the issue?    The UK has long had a strained relationship with the EU and has never been comfortable with the ever increasing drive for greater integration and harmonization of rules and regulations coming from Brussels.  As the EU has grown, more decisions are made by a qualified majority.  Previously decision required unanimity.  The shift weakens the power of a UK veto.    The UK Prime Minister has called for a national referendum on continued UK membership of the EU.  When...

EM ended last week on a soft note, due to a variety of both external and internal factors.  Firm US data continue to support our call for resumed Fed tightening, and this gave the dollar a bit of a bid.  With the dollar gaining against the majors, this spilled over into generalized dollar gains vs. EM as well.  Weak data out of China this week poses a risk to EM, though we suspect that how China markets react will set the tone for the wider EM.Idiosyncratic EM risk remains in play too. ...

EM ended last week on a soft note, due to a variety of both external and internal factors.  Firm US data continue to support our call for resumed Fed tightening, and this gave the dollar a bit of a bid.  With the dollar gaining against the majors, this spilled over into generalized dollar gains vs. EM as well.  Weak data out of China this week poses a risk to EM, though we suspect that how China markets react will set the tone for the wider EM.Idiosyncratic EM risk remains in play too. ...