Tag Archives: Featured

Iranian elections have supposedly put a very nice ‘moderate’ spin on Iranian politics in parliamentary ranks, and more importantly, Assembly of Experts composition. While it would be churlish to deny, it represents a significant step forward for President Rouhani’s agenda to 2017, albeit a number of vital caveats remain for how real any political shift actually is. We’ll do the Parliament first, and then move onto the Assembly second. With a ‘grand finale’ of what it means for Iranian...

Deflation is portrayed as the great economic scourge.  It exacerbates debt servicing costs and encourages consumers to defer purchases.  Central banks in Japan and Europe have responded with aggressive, unorthodox measures, often combining asset purchase programs with negative interest rates.   However, deflation is not very deep, and the measurement is not very precise.  In recent years, it has become common for many central banks to define their mandate of price stability as being...

The angst that characterized the first several weeks of the year continues to dissipate.  Major equity markets are extending their two-week recovery into a third week. Immediate concerns about the US falling into a recession have eased.  The market have withstood some downward pressure on the Chinese yuan.  Late yesterday Moody's cut its outlook for China's credit rating to negative from stable, and this did not cause much of a ripple in the capital markets.  In fact, the Shanghai and...

Many economists argue that the key challenge is that of insufficient aggregate demand.  That is why world growth is slow.  Hobbled with debt, households have pulled back.  Business investment is weak.  Government dissavings has been offset by household and business savings.  The solution offered by some economists is a large public investment program.  The G20 encouraged members not to rely on monetary policy, which even some central bankers are concerned, has reached a point of...

During a period in which the zero bound no longer is the floor of interest rates, and many central banks continue to ease policy,  we have been watching gold a bit closer.   In early January, we noted that the technical pattern warned of breakout.  Our first objective was $1110-$1135.  In early February, we updated our view with gold trading near $1150. The charts still looked constructive; we suggested a new target near $1200.   The increasingly precious metal rose to almost $1263.5o on...

In a recent article by Kessler Companies (hat tip Zerohedge) they correctly point out that inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, have a tendency to accelerate as the US economy moves into a recession. Contrary to popular belief, the beginning of a recession is not deflationary but the exact opposite. As can be seen from the chart, consumer prices do indeed move higher into recessions as represented by the shaded areas. Why? The most obvious explanation is simply that the...

In a recent article by Kessler Companies (hat tip Zerohedge) they correctly point out that inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, have a tendency to accelerate as the US economy moves into a recession. Contrary to popular belief, the beginning of a recession is not deflationary but the exact opposite. As can be seen from the chart, consumer prices do indeed move higher into recessions as represented by the shaded areas. Why? The most obvious explanation is simply that the...

What is the issue?    The UK has long had a strained relationship with the EU and has never been comfortable with the ever increasing drive for greater integration and harmonization of rules and regulations coming from Brussels.  As the EU has grown, more decisions are made by a qualified majority.  Previously decision required unanimity.  The shift weakens the power of a UK veto.    The UK Prime Minister has called for a national referendum on continued UK membership of the EU.  When...

What is the issue?    The UK has long had a strained relationship with the EU and has never been comfortable with the ever increasing drive for greater integration and harmonization of rules and regulations coming from Brussels.  As the EU has grown, more decisions are made by a qualified majority.  Previously decision required unanimity.  The shift weakens the power of a UK veto.    The UK Prime Minister has called for a national referendum on continued UK membership of the EU.  When...

EM ended last week on a soft note, due to a variety of both external and internal factors.  Firm US data continue to support our call for resumed Fed tightening, and this gave the dollar a bit of a bid.  With the dollar gaining against the majors, this spilled over into generalized dollar gains vs. EM as well.  Weak data out of China this week poses a risk to EM, though we suspect that how China markets react will set the tone for the wider EM.Idiosyncratic EM risk remains in play too. ...