Tag Archives: Featured

  Stuffing the Futon Our friend Ramsey Su just asked what Haruhiko Kuroda and Shinzo Abe are going to do now in light of the strong yen (aside from perhaps doing the honorable thing). Isn’t it time to just “wipe out some debt with the stroke of a pen”? We will return to that question further below, but first a few words on the new Samurai futon. Apparently the Japanese are becoming more than a little antsy about Kuroda-san’s negative interest rate policy (and the threats of more of the...

  Seven Year Achievement “Read the directions and directly you will be directed in the right direction.” — Lewis Carroll U.S. consumers are at it again.  After a seven year hiatus they’re once again doing what they do best.  They’re buying stuff. PCE: personal consumption expenditures up 1% According to the Commerce Department, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which is the primary measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the U.S. economy, increased $119.2 billion in...

“Every thinking person in America is  going to vote for you Governor Stevenson,” said an enthusiastic voter.“I am afraid that won’t do.  I need a majority,” reportedly quipped Stevenson (1952 or 1956).   The UK referendum on June 23 is the most important political event of the first half of the year.  A decision to leave could be a significant disruptive force.  No one knows for sure. It is precisely that uncertainty that is fueling the demand for insurance in the options market that...

Key points: Q/Q GDP growth: +0.1%, YoY GDP growth: +0.7% Until 2014, Swiss GDP was driven by net exports: Exports were rising more quickly than imports, which improved GDP. Positive change in the trade balance in goods: Recently only the trade balance of goods continued to increase (+8.1% YoY exports, +1.4% YoY imports in Q1/2016) Negative change in the trade balance for services (+6.7% YoY) increased more than the export of services (+2.0%). Exports of services are for example banking...

The Parasite – easily the most terrifying Superman villain Image credit: Marvel The Parasites Begin to Attach Themselves BALTIMORE – “Tommy… who are you voting for?” We put the question to a local bulldozer operator whom we’ve known for at least half a century. Tommy, now 80 years old, is the last of a dying breed. He grew up plowing the earth to grow tobacco on Maryland’s Tidewater, on the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. In the 1970s, when tobacco farming became unprofitable, he...

The fact OPEC just agreed to agree on nothing in Vienna isn’t particularly surprising given Doha wounds are still festering from the last attempt at ‘petro-diplomacy’. But the engagement ultimately has to been knocked up as a partial success for Saudi Arabia, where it’s managed to put itself back at the centre of cartel politics by thawing the ‘freeze discussion’ on Riyadh’s terms. Confused? Don’t be. As we flagged in OPEC Politics, Doha’s failure left a very dangerous door open for...

 ECB press conference June 2 2016 Held in Vienna with Governor Nowotny Keep key ECB interest rates unchanged Will be kept at present or lower for an extended period of time, exceeding asset purchase program (80bn per month) which will end March 2017 sector program will start June 8 TLTRO start in June New measures will strengthen growth in euro area through credit expansion Very low inflation must not become entrenched in second round effects through effects on wages and prices. ECB...

The US dollar remains under pressure.  It is off for the third day against the yen and slipped below JPY109 for the first time in a little more than two weeks.  The Nikkei struggled to cope with the foreign exchange developments, lost 2.3%, the most in a month, after gapping lower.  At JPY108.50, the dollar would have given back 50% of its rally off the May 3 low near JPY105.50.   Below there, the JPY107.80 is the 61.8% retracement.   The euro is north of $1.12 after having briefly...

01.06.2016 09:15  – FSO, Economic Surveys (0353-1605-70) The Used Goods Question Retail sales in several countries like Germany, Italy, Japan and Switzerland continue to fall. In the United States they have strongly risen recently. We should remind readers, that used goods sold via Ebay or similar, are not contained in this statistics. Still they create economic value for the purchases. By mentality, Swiss, Germans or Japanese pay more attention so that used goods do not lose their value...

Bern, 01.06.2016 – Switzerland’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1% in the 1st quarter of 2016.* GDP was underpinned by consumption expenditure from private households and investments in construction and equipment but curbed slightly by government consumption. On the production side, the picture was mixed: whilst financial services and the hotel and catering industry saw a decline, value added in manufacturing, construction and the healthcare sector increased. In comparison...