Macroview On the very first trading day of 2016, a seven per cent selloff in the CSI 300 Index sparked jitters across global financial markets. Lacklustre dynamics in the global economic cycle are having a knock-on effect on corporate profits and generating increased volatility in financial markets. Volatility is likely to settle at higher levels in 2016. That has prompted us to employ a balanced strategic allocation – roughly half and half, on average, in equities and bonds. Tactical approaches will become more active so as to seize upon opportunities arising during the year in the various asset classes, but especially equities. Stock-picking is becoming a vital component of our approach, and we will favour companies with good growth visibility. Government bonds should continue to act as portfolio protection against shocks on risky markets, even if their degree of protectiveness has diminished of late. Greater exchange-rate volatility will increase the cost of currency hedging, pushing investors using the euro and Swiss franc as base currencies to opt for German Bunds in preference to US Treasuries. For further information on our 2016 scenario for the global economy and for financial markets, please refer to our December 2015 edition of Perspectives.
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On the very first trading day of 2016, a seven per cent selloff in the CSI 300 Index sparked jitters across global financial markets.
Lacklustre dynamics in the global economic cycle are having a knock-on effect on corporate profits and generating increased volatility in financial markets.
- Volatility is likely to settle at higher levels in 2016. That has prompted us to employ a balanced strategic allocation – roughly half and half, on average, in equities and bonds.
- Tactical approaches will become more active so as to seize upon opportunities arising during the year in the various asset classes, but especially equities. Stock-picking is becoming a vital component of our approach, and we will favour companies with good growth visibility.
- Government bonds should continue to act as portfolio protection against shocks on risky markets, even if their degree of protectiveness has diminished of late.
- Greater exchange-rate volatility will increase the cost of currency hedging, pushing investors using the euro and Swiss franc as base currencies to opt for German Bunds in preference to US Treasuries.
For further information on our 2016 scenario for the global economy and for financial markets, please refer to our December 2015 edition of Perspectives.