Tag Archives: newsletter

In the years following the 2008 crash and today, the use of forward guidance from central banking policy makers has become increasingly important. What this nonsense ultimately has translated into is a ridiculous track record in posting upbeat assessments on the economic environment, aimed at trying to fool the marginal investor into believing “there are no need for worry, central bankers have everything under...

Something unexpected happened when the ECB released its latest bond purchase data at during its scheduled release time on Monday: in addition to the purchase of at least 20 separate corporate bonds under the bank’s CSPP bond buying program during the week ended October 14, amounting to a total of €1.84 billion, which lifted the number of securities held by the central bank to 660, bringing the total to amount of its...

The collapse of asset inflation will implode all the fiscal and financial promises based on ever-inflating assets. In effect, central banks and states have masked the devastating stagnation of real income by encouraging households to take on debt to augment declining income and by inflating assets via quantitative easing and lowering interest rates and bond yields to near-zero (or more recently, less than zero). The...

  Swiss Franc and Sterling (Tom Holian) According to Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent the drop in the value of Sterling has helped to stop the UK economy from falling further since the shock of the Brexit vote. He went on to say ‘in the shape of the referendum, we’ve had exactly one of those shocks’ and added that the Bank of England would not interfere with monetary policy to boost the Pound’s value....

Summary: Price pressures appear to have bottomed for the US, UK, and to a lesser extent, EMU. Rise in prices cannot be reduced solely to the increase of oil. Core prices are also rising. Back in the early post-crisis days, many pundits consumed lots of ink and column inches warning the strong inflationary pressures would be fueled by the orthodox and unorthodox monetary policy. Not only did this not...

Submitted by Michael Shedlock MishTalk.com, Daniel Hannan - Click to enlarge Daniel Hannan, a British member of the European Parliament (MEP), made an eloquent, impassioned speech this weekend on what should take place in Brexit talks. After listening to Hannan on Brexit, regulation and trade, I am certain he would make a far better US president than anyone in the entire field from 18 months ago. A few videos...

Summary: Oil has rallied 20% since mid-September. Market may be getting ahead of itself. US rig count has risen by more than 100 in less than 4-months and inventories, seasonally adjusted are at record highs. The price of oil has risen more than 20% over the past month. It is being driven by ideas that OPEC (and Russia) may implement a freeze or an output cut at the end of next month.  At the same time, US...

Iffy Looking Charts The stock market has held up quite well this year in the face of numerous developments that are usually regarded as negative (from declining earnings, to the Brexit, to a US presidential election that leaves a lot to be desired, to put it mildly). Of course, the market is never driven by the news – it is exactly the other way around. It is the market that actually writes the news. It may finally...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 17 2016(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is consolidating in relatively narrow trading ranges. Participants appear to be waiting for fresh incentives, while the recent rise yields continue and equities have begun the new week on a soft note. Yellen spoke before the weekend, and her explicit willingness to tolerate higher...

Summary: Bank of Canada meets Wed. Look for a dovish hold. Foreigners continue to buy Canadian bonds and stocks. The EU-Canadian free-trade deal is facing challenges, with the most pressing one coming from Belgium. The Bank of Canada meets Wednesday. Last month officials acknowledged that growth could be somewhat lower than previously anticipated. Those fears have likely materialized, and the central bank...