Tag Archives: newsletter

Natalie Vein of BFI speaks with Doug Casey Our friend Natalie Vein recently had the opportunity to conduct an extensive interview with Doug Casey for BFI, the  parent company of Global Gold. Based on his decades-long experience in investing and his many travels, he shares his views on the state of the world economy, his outlook on critical political developments in the US and in Europe, as well as his investment...

Escaping the Hurricane BALTIMORE – Last week, we got a peek at the End of the World. As Hurricane Matthew approached the coast of Florida, a panic set in. Gas stations ran out of fuel. Stores ran out of food. Banks ran out of cash. A satellite image of hurricane Matthew taken on October 4. He didn’t look very friendly. Image via twitter.com - Click to enlarge “Evacuate or die,” we were told. Not wanting to do...

Swiss Franc EUR CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 11 2016(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is bid against all the major and most emerging market curerncies.  An important driver is the backing up of US rates.  The two-year yield, which is particularly sensitive to Fed policy is at it highest levbel since early June (~86 bp).  The US 10-year yield is five basis points hihger...

© Yulan | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge The Swiss National Bank can cut interest rates further into negative territory if needed, President Thomas Jordan said. “We have still some room to go further if necessary,” Jordan said Saturday in an interview in Washington with Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua. Jordan, who is attending the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, noted...

Australian property bubble on a scale like no other Yesterday Citi produced a new index which pinned the Australian property bubble at 16 year highs: Bubble trouble. Whether we label them bubbles, the Australian economy has experienced a series of developments that potentially could have the economy lurching from boom to bust and back. In recent years these have included:  the record run up in commodity prices and...

Sentiment and Positioning When we last discussed the gold sector correction (which had only just begun at the time), we mentioned we would update sentiment and positioning data on occasion. For a while, not much changed in these indicators, but as one would expect, last week’s sharp sell-off did in fact move the needle a bit. Gold – just as nice to look at as it always is, but slightly cheaper since last week. Photo...

Summary: The year-long euro uptrend comes in near $1.1035, just below the August lows. The technical are fragile, but the euro is below its lower Bollinger Band. The fundamental driver seems to be the backing up of US rates, and widening premium over Germany. This Great Graphic, composed on Bloomberg shows the euro against the dollar since the start of the year. It shows the trendline drawn off the...

Stock Markets Despite the weaker than expected US jobs report, the dollar remains firm and EM is ending the week on a soft note.  The main culprit was higher US rates, with the 2-year yield moving up to 0.85% and is the highest since early June.  Concerns about Brexit impact and as well the health of European banks remain ongoing and could weigh on risk sentiment this coming week.  Lastly, oil may come under more...

High frequency economic reports will be not be among the key drivers of the capital markets in the week ahead. The light schedule, consisting mostly of industrial production in Europe, inflation for Scandinavia, and US retail sales, will have minimal impact on rate expectations. A November rate Fed move was never very likely. The September employment report needed to be amazingly strong to boost the chances, and it was...

Summary: The US premium over Germany is at its widest since 2006. This is despite a small reduction in odds of a hike in December. There are many forces are work, but over time, the widening differential will likely give the dollar better traction. This Great Graphic from Bloomberg shows two time series. The white line is the spread between the German two-year interest rate and the US two-year yield. The...