Tag Archives: newsletter

  Originarios on the march… Photo credit: cta.org.ar  Alarming News BALTIMORE, Maryland – An alarming email came on Tuesday from our ranch in Argentina: “Bad things going on… We thought we had the originarios problem settled. Not at all. They just invaded the ranch.” To bring new readers fully into the picture, Northwest Argentina, where we have our ranch, has a revolution going on. Some of the indigenous people – that is, people with Native American blood – believe they have a claim on...

  Illustration via irs.com A Wake-Up Call The price of gold moved down about twenty Federal Reserve Notes, and the price of silver dropped $0.57. The big news is that the gold-silver ratio moved up about 1.5. We hate to say “we told you so,” well, OK. Actually… sometimes there’s a certain je ne said quoi about gloating. *Achem* In all seriousness, the dollar is going up. We measure it in gold, or alternatively in silver. In gold, the dollar rose 0.4mg gold to 24.84. In silver, it was up...

Video, Chandler: Dollar Will Continue to Trend Higher, click to open Returning from a two-week business trip to Asia, I was invited to appear on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua.  Check out the video clip here. Key Points My key points include,the driver now is changing perceptions of the trajectory of Fed policy and the reemergence of divergence.  I suggest that “real news” from the G7 meeting was not about intervention, as neither the US, Europe, nor...

23.05.2016 09:15  – FSO, Labour Force (0353-1605-40) Swiss Labour Force Survey and its derivative statistics: working hours Hours worked increased in 2015 Neuchâtel, 23.05.2016 (FSO) – The total number of hours worked in Switzerland reached 7.889 billion in 2015, representing an increase of 2.3% compared with the previous year. According to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), between 2011 and 2015, the actual weekly hours worked by full-time employees declined very slightly and stood at...

The capital markets are off to a mixed start to start the last week of the month.  Asian shares were mostly higher, though the Nikkei shed 0.5%.  European shares are also higher, extending the three-week high seen last week.  FX Rates The US dollar is mixed.  The yen is the strongest of the majors.  The media continues to play up tension between the US and Japan at the weekend G7 meeting over the appropriateness of intervention, but Europe is not very sympathetic either.  Today’s...

On June 1, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande will take a break from their respective domestic crises and attend a ceremony to inaugurate the Gotthard Base Tunnel (GBT) in Switzerland. While the US has been focused on resolving LGBT rights issues and deciding whether or not the Confederate flag can fly in cemeteries, Switzerland has focused on something that’s actually productive. After 17 years of work, and at a cost of $12 billion, Switzerland has engineered and constructed the world’s...

EM had another rocky week, but managed to end on a slightly firmer note Friday.  Market repricing of Fed tightening risk was the big driver last week, and that could carry over into this week.  There are several Fed speakers in the days ahead, capped off with Fed chief Yellen on Friday.  Several EM central banks meet this week, including Israel, Turkey, Hungary, and Colombia.  There is some risk of a dovish surprise from Turkey, while Hungary is expected to continue easing.  Colombia is...

The US dollar’s weakness in recent months, despite negative interest rates in Europe and Japan likely had many contributing factors.  These factors include shifting views of Fed policy, weaker US growth, the recovery in commodity prices, including oil, gold and iron ore, and market positioning.  A new phase began in late-April/early May.  The dramatic rally in iron prices reversed, and the Australian dollar, bottomed against the US dollar in mid-January, seemingly to anticipate the...

Speculative positioning in the currency futures began to adjust before the latest signals from the Federal Reserve about the prospects for a summer hike and the widening of interest rate differentials.  In the CFTC reporting week ending May 17, the day before the FOMC minutes were released speculators mostly reduced gross long currency positions and added to gross short positions.   There were a few exceptions.  Speculators added less than 500 contracts to the gross long euro position...

The combination of stronger US economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve that it is looking to continue the normalization process helped the dollar extended its recovery.  The dollar posted a significant technical reversal against many of the major currencies on May 3.  The Dollar Index rose for its third week, as the greenback climbed against all the major currencies but sterling (+0.9%).   Sterling was aided by some polls indicating a shift toward the Remain camp.  The...