Tag Archives: newsletter

Summary: Bonds are not rallying despite poor US data. Greater chance that Trump gets elected than the Fed hikes next week. Berlin may be more important than Bratislava. (Two week business trip is winding down, leaving London tomorrow and will be in Canada for the first couple days of next week, then back to NY.  Sporadic posts to continue. Thanks for your patience) Yellow lights are flashing. Bonds remain...

This simple two-step process would greatly diminish the Ministry of Propaganda’s influence. Here’s a radical idea: how about presenting the facts and letting voters decide who is “fit to serve”? Consider the context of this presidential election and the judgment call as to who is “fit to serve”: 2. Both the Republican and Democratic candidates have highly unfavorable ratings; they may well be the most disliked...

  Renewed Escalation This summer witnessed a renewed escalation between Russia and Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of sending saboteurs to attack Russian troops, targeting “critical infrastructure”. Kiev denied the allegations and claimed Russia’s “fantasy” was nothing but a false pretense to launch a “new invasion”. But what does the media tell us about what has been happening in...

SMI The Swiss Market Index is set to finish the week notably weaker along with global equity markets as fears around global monetary policy hit sentiment ahead of key meetings by the Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve next week. The SMI did manage to outperform its European peers thanks to its heavy weighting towards more defensive pharmaceuticals and consumer staples sectors.   Economic Data Global equity markets...

Strange diversion of conditional inflation forecasts: At the ECB Meeting Draghi expected inflation to rebound to 1.2% next year and 1.6% in 2018.The SNB, however, predicts 2017 inflation at 0.2% and 2018 at 0.6%. YoY CPI Inflation in Germany is at 0.4%, in France 0.3%, in Italy and Spain near or under zero. Switzerland sits on a real estate bubble that sooner or later will translate into rents and prices. Rents in...

Swiss Franc As happened very often, traders expected more the SNB monetary assessment. And, as usually, the franc finally appreciated because the SNB did not act. Click to enlarge. FX Rates Looking at the diary, today is the most important day of the week. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank meet. The UK reports retail sales. EMU reports CPI figures. The US reports retail sales, industrial output, and...

  A Small and Lonely Group PARIS – It’s back to Europe. Back to school. Back to work. Let’s begin by bringing new readers into the discussion… and by reminding old readers (and ourselves) where we stand. US economic growth: average annual GDP growth over time spans ranging from 120 to 10 years (left hand side) and the 20 year moving average of annual GDP growth since 1967. Note that the bump in the 70 year average is...

The MSM has forsaken its duty in a democracy and is a disgrace to investigative, unbiased journalism. The mainstream media bet the farm on Hillary Clinton, confident that their dismissal of every skeptical inquiry as a “conspiracy” would guarantee her victory. It now appears they have lost their bet. Let’s do something radical and be honest for a moment: the mainstream media has smoothed the path to Hillary’s...

Criminalizing Cash Money sometimes goes “full politics”. Take poor Kenneth Rogoff at Harvard. He wants a dollar with a voter registration card, a U.S. flag on its windshield, and a handgun in its belt – the kind of money that supports the Establishment and votes for Hillary. Writing last month in the Wall Street Journal under the headline “The Sinister Side of Cash”, he noted that: “Paper currency, especially large...

Swiss Franc Swiss ZEW expectations came in better than expected. The value was +2.7 instead of expected negative value. Switzerland ZEW Expectations (see more posts on Switzerland ZEW Expectations, )Switzerland ZEW Expectations. Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar advanced yesterday and is in narrow ranges with a mostly softer bias today. The exception is the Japanese yen. Japanese press have reported that...