Tag Archives: China

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is 50/50. Decoupling anyone? That’s what the market is whispering right now, that the recent troubles in foreign economies is contained and won’t affect the US. The most obvious example of that trend is the performance of US stocks versus the rest of the world. I am painfully aware of the...

Thomas Heller, Chief Investment Officer und Leiter Research bei der Schwyzer Kantonalbank. In viele Tweets verpackte Drohungen, allenfalls einige kleinere konkrete Massnahmen, aber letztlich keine Eskalation. Der von Donald Trump angezettelte Handelskonflikt sei allerdings bereits viel weiter eskaliert, als zu erwarten war – Thomas Heller, CIO bei der SZKB, gibt seine Einschätzung zur Lage. Der...

Bild: Pixabay An Environmental, Social und Governance (ESG)-Produkten führt kein Weg mehr vorbei. Aber obschon Begriffe wie "ESG", "Impact Investing" oder "Sustainable Investing" heute zum Fachjargon gehören, ist oft nicht klar, was genau dahintersteckt. Die Panelteilnehmer des Fondsbranchen-Anlasses "Friends of Funds" zum Thema nachhaltige Anlagestrategien brachten Licht ins Dunkle. Die...

Stock Markets EM FX was whipsawed last week but ended on a firm note. We look past the noise and believe that the true signals for EM remain higher US interest rates and continued trade tensions, both of which are negative. Turkish markets reopen after a week off. Nothing fundamentally has changed there, and so it still poses some spillover risk to wider EM. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, August 22 - Click to...

There are three areas that we suspect that many investors are vulnerable to disappointment. NAFTA, trade talks with China, and Powell speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. With problems elsewhere, the Trump Administration has been playing up the likelihood of an agreement as early as today with Mexico, which would be used, apparently to deliver a fait accompli to Canada. It is not clear what a “handshake agreement” really...

Wohin steuert das Reich der Mitte? Eine chinesische Flagge vor einem Wohngebäude in der Stadt Huaian. Foto: Reuters Was in China passiert, hat immer mehr Auswirkungen auf die Weltwirtschaft. Nur gibt es kaum ein Land, das so schwierig zu verstehen ist wie das Reich der Mitte. Die wirtschaftspolitischen Prozesse sind völlig undurchsichtig. Nur Insider haben ein realistisches Bild der komplizierten Machtstrukturen, aber sie können es sich nicht leisten, öffentlich darüber Auskunft zu...

The topic of how much extractable gold is left in the world has become increasingly discussed within the last few years. This is because of increased focus on ‘peak gold’ and also a concern about remaining levels of unextracted gold reserves. Peak gold is a term referring to the phenomenon of annual gold mining supply peaking (i.e. the rate of gold extraction increases until it peaks at maximum gold output and...

Stock Markets EM FX came under greater pressure last week as the situation in Turkey deteriorated.  With no weekend developments as of this writing, we expect Turkish assets to remain under pressure this week. Five worst EM currencies YTD are TRY (-41%), ARS (-36%), RUB (-15%), BRL (-14.5%), and ZAR (-12%). All five have serious baggage that warrants continued underperformance.Yet it’s worth noting that the five best...

Chimerica always seemed like an oversimplification of a complex and dialectic relationship between the US and China. However, it did express an underlying truth, that China’s rise over the last 40 years has been predicated on Deng Xiaoping’s political and economic reforms and, importantly, the world of free-trade (a reduction in tariff barriers to trade) promoted by the United States. America seems to hold two seemingly...

Why is SHIBOR falling from an economic perspective? Simple again. China’s growth both on its own and as a reflection of actual global growth has stalled. And in a dynamic, non-linear world stalled equals trouble. Going all the way back to early 2017, there’s been no acceleration (and more than a little deceleration). The reflation economy got started in 2016 but it never went anywhere. For most of last year, optimists...