Tag Archives: China

The topic of how much extractable gold is left in the world has become increasingly discussed within the last few years. This is because of increased focus on ‘peak gold’ and also a concern about remaining levels of unextracted gold reserves. Peak gold is a term referring to the phenomenon of annual gold mining supply peaking (i.e. the rate of gold extraction increases until it peaks at maximum gold output and...

Stock Markets EM FX came under greater pressure last week as the situation in Turkey deteriorated.  With no weekend developments as of this writing, we expect Turkish assets to remain under pressure this week. Five worst EM currencies YTD are TRY (-41%), ARS (-36%), RUB (-15%), BRL (-14.5%), and ZAR (-12%). All five have serious baggage that warrants continued underperformance.Yet it’s worth noting that the five best...

Chimerica always seemed like an oversimplification of a complex and dialectic relationship between the US and China. However, it did express an underlying truth, that China’s rise over the last 40 years has been predicated on Deng Xiaoping’s political and economic reforms and, importantly, the world of free-trade (a reduction in tariff barriers to trade) promoted by the United States. America seems to hold two seemingly...

Why is SHIBOR falling from an economic perspective? Simple again. China’s growth both on its own and as a reflection of actual global growth has stalled. And in a dynamic, non-linear world stalled equals trouble. Going all the way back to early 2017, there’s been no acceleration (and more than a little deceleration). The reflation economy got started in 2016 but it never went anywhere. For most of last year, optimists...

The Trump Administration argues that other countries have been taking unfair advantage of the US on trade for years, and what many are calling a trade war is really only the US finally saying enough. The US has taken many several countries, including China, to the WTO for trade violations and wins the vast majority of cases it has brought. It has become fashionable to talk about reciprocity and intuitively has much...

[embedded content] Economic thoughts and analysis from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun. Related posts: Global Asset Allocation Update Global Asset Allocation Update Global Asset Allocation Update Global Asset Allocation Update Global Asset Allocation Update: Tariffs Don’t Warrant A Change…Yet Global Asset Allocation Update: The Certainty of...

Stock Markets EM FX has come under pressure again due to ongoing trade tensions and rising US rates but saw some modest relief Friday after the PBOC announcement on FX forwards. This helped EM FX stabilize, but we do not think the negative fundamental backdrop has changed. Best performers last week were MXN, PHP, and PEN while the worst were TRY, ZAR, and KRW. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, August 01 - Click...

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY. Interest rates are on the rise again, the 10 year Treasury yield punching through 3% again this morning. That is an indication that growth and/or inflation expectations have risen...

Chinese officials do not seem to appreciate the extent of its isolation. The disruption from the US as Trump positions the US as a revisionist power-one that wants to alter the world order, which it was instrumental in constructing, may have obscured the fact that China’s practices are a source of frustration and animosity broadly and widely. Chinese officials do not seem to understand why Europe, for example, does not...

Stock Markets EM FX enjoyed a respite from the ongoing selling pressures, with most currencies up on the week vs. the dollar. Best performers were CLP, MXN, and ZAR while the worst were TRY, CNY, and COP.  BOJ, Fed, and BOE meetings this week may pose some risks to EM FX. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, July 25 - Click to enlarge South Africa South Africa reports June money, loan, and budget data Monday. June...