Tag Archives: China

Every now and then, the developed and emerging economies of the world find themselves in sync, growing or contracting together. This is not one of those times. In late 2015, a trend that started in 2014 accelerated, as the balance of global growth is tilting toward developed markets and away from emerging ones. Whereas Credit Suisse economists expect growth in developed economies to accelerate this year—up 1.9 percent versus 1.7 percent in 2014—they forecast slower growth in emerging ones, up...

A selloff as violent as the one global equities markets experienced this past Monday can have effects that mirror a real-life earthquake. Once the earth stops moving, shell-shocked investors have to figure out what caused all the shaking and whether aftershocks are coming. They also have to determine whether anything valuable is hiding in the debris.   To the first point, it’s quite clear that trouble in China was the catalyst for the rout. It all started on Friday, August 21, when...

For the three months leading into August, the Chinese government had kept the yuan-dollar exchange rate fixed in a tight range around 6.115 yuan to the dollar. Yet the yuan’s spot price consistently traded about 1.4 percent weaker than the fix. Investors, in other words, sensed a devaluation coming. In mid-August, Chinese officials proved them right by intervening in currency markets for three days in a row, prompting a 3 percent drop in the value of the yuan.   An 8 percent decline in...

Both Chinese PMI and the producer price index (PPI) are in deflation since 2012. This opens a lot of questions about the sustainability of Chinese economic growth, but also about the certain economic theories that consider deflation as a precursor of depression, as it did in the early 1930s. China’s speed of economic growth simply slows, recently to 7%, according to China statistics “China’s Economy Showed Moderate but Steady Growth“. Notice For the second year producer prices remain...