Tag Archives: China

While monetary tightening remains the main risk for global stock markets, the threat of a trade war continues to dominate the headlines… THE DONALD’S DEALMAKING The question raised by Donald Trump’s trade agenda with China remains, in essence, extremely simple. It is whether The Donald is engaged in a typical ‘Art of the Deal’ negotiation, where he can suddenly turn on a dime and declare a ‘win’, or whether he is...

Summary PBOC fixed USD/CNY at the highest level since December 14. Bank Indonesia delivered a larger than expected 50 bp to 5.25%. Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov survived a second no-confidence vote this year. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected but with sweeping new powers. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE are reportedly in talks to help stabilize Bahrain. The South African Reserve Bank...

I missed durable goods last month for scheduling reasons, which was a shame given that May is the month each year for benchmark revisions to the series. Since new estimates under the latest revisions were released today, it seems an appropriate time to revisit the topic of data bias, and why that matters. What happens with durable goods (or any data for that matter, the process is largely the same) is that the Census...

Bild: Pixabay Susi Partners hat für einen Spezialfonds für Energiespeicher von institutionellen Investoren aus Deutschland, den Niederlanden, Österreich, Schweden und der Schweiz Kapitalzusagen von EUR 252 Mio erhalten. Der Susi Energy Storage Fund (SESF) investiert OECD-weit in Projekte, die unterschiedlichen Speichertechnologien verwenden, wobei etwaige Technologierisiken durch langfristige...

Noch ist Chinas Wirtschaft weitgehend abgeschottet: Blick auf die Skyline von Shanghai. Foto: Vincent Isore (Getty) Letzte Woche hat ein Bericht der EU-Handelskammer über das geschäftliche Umfeld in China für grosse Aufmerksamkeit gesorgt. Das starke Medienecho war berechtigt, denn es geht in diesem Bericht um existenzielle Fragen der europäischen Wirtschaft und um die Zukunft des Welthandelssystems. Zwei Botschaften wurden besonders hervorgehoben: Grosse Teile des chinesischen Marktes...

Stock Markets EM FX ended Friday mixed, and capped off a mixed week overall as the dollar’s broad-based rally was sidetracked. EM may start the week on an upbeat after PBOC cut reserve requirements over the weekend. Best EM performers last week were ARS, MXN, and TRY while the worst were THB, IDR, and BRL. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, June 20 - Click to enlarge Indonesia Indonesia reports May trade Monday....

[embedded content] Information and opinions about the economy and markets from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun. Related posts: Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Bi-Weekly Economic Review – VIDEO Bi-Weekly Economic Review – VIDEO Weekly SNB Intervention Update: SNB Resumes Interventions Cookie policy Privacy Policy Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Oil,...

Is the rate hiking cycle almost done? Not the question on everyone’s minds right now so a good time to ask it, I think. A couple of items caught my attention recently that made me at least think about the possibility.  There has been for some time now a large short position held by speculators in the futures market for Treasuries. Speculators have been making large and consistent bets that Treasury prices would fall....

The risk budget is unchanged this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds and risk assets is evenly split. There are changes this month within the asset classes. How far are we from the end of this cycle? When will the next recession arrive and more importantly when will stocks and other markets start to anticipate a slowdown? These are critical questions for investors and ones that can’t be...

The People’s Bank of China won’t update its balance sheet numbers for May until later this month. Last month, as expected, the Chinese central bank allowed bank reserves to contract for the first time in nearly two years. It is, I believe, all part of the reprioritization of monetary policy goals toward CNY. How well it works in practice remains to be seen. Authorities are not simply contracting one important form of...