Tag Archives: 5) Global Macro

EM performance this week will hinge crucially on whether US equity markets can find some traction. If sustained, last week’s equity rout could lead to a deeper generalized risk-off trading environment this week that would weigh on EM FX and equities. As it is, markets are already digesting weaker economic data and rising virus numbers in countries that had crushed the curve. ECB meeting this week may hint at further easing to come, which could help risk assets...

The greater fools still partying in the first-class lounge are in denial that even the greatest, most technologically advanced ship can sink. On April 14, 1912, the liner Titanic, considered unsinkable due to its watertight compartments and other features, struck a glancing blow against a massive iceberg on that moonless, weirdly calm night. In the early hours of April 15, the great ship broke in half and sank, ending the lives of the majority of its passengers and...

This is likely to be one of the most eventful weeks we’ve had in a while. Not only do three major central banks meet, but four EM central banks also meet, and we get important June and July data from the US, the first Q2 GDP reading from China, an OPEC+ meeting, and an EU summit. This comes as markets are grappling with still-rising virus numbers in the US and resurgent numbers in many other countries that call into question the durability of the economic recovery....

Our society has a legal structure of self-rule and ownership of capital, but in reality it is a Neofeudal Oligarchy. Now that the pandemic is over and the economy is roaring again–so the stock market says–we’re heading straight back up into the good old days of 2019. Nothing to worry about, we’ve recovered the trajectory of higher and higher, better every day in every way. Everything’s great except the fatal rot at the heart of the U.S. economy hasn’t even been...

The US has started the formal process of withdrawing from the WHO; the dollar continues to benefit from risk-off sentiment but remains stuck in recent ranges The White House is asking Congress to pass another $1 trln stimulus plan by early August; President Trump hosts Mexican President AMLO for a two-day visit Chancellor Sunak addresses UK Parliament today; Brexit talks continue; Nigeria devalued its official exchange rate yesterday RBNZ is considering an extension...

Given the extremes of the stock market’s frauds and even greater extremes of wealth/income inequality it has created, tell me again why the stock market will still exist in 2024? When I read a financial pundit predicting a bull market in stocks through 2024, blah-blah-blah, I wonder: what makes you think the stock market will even exist in 2024, at least in its current form? Given the current trajectory of the real economy into the Greatest Depression while the...

Risk assets remain hostage to swings in market sentiment. Stronger than expected US jobs data last week was welcome news. However, the tug of war between improving economic data and worsening viral numbers is likely to continue this week, with many US states reporting record high infection rates. AMERICAS Brazil reports May retail sales Wednesday. Sales are expected to contract -13.5% y/y vs. -16.8% in April. June IPCA inflation will be reported Friday, which is...

The elites dancing through the minefield all have plans, but how many are prepared for the punch in the mouth? Open any newspaper from the past 100 years and you will soon find a newsworthy geopolitical hotspot or conflict. Geopolitical conflict is the default setting for humanity, it seems, but it does feel as if the minefield of geopolitical rivalries and flashpoints has been thickly sown and many of the players are dancing through the minefield with a worrisomely...

Re-shutdowns continue to spread across the US; the dollar has come under pressure again Jobs data is the highlight ahead of the long holiday weekend in the US; weekly jobless claims will be reported FOMC minutes were revelatory; the Fed for now will rely on “outcome-based” forward guidance and asset purchases to achieve its goals; US House passed the latest China sanctions bill The UK offered a home to nearly 3 mln Hong Kong citizens; Russia President Putin will...

Just as the rewards of central-bank bubbles have not been evenly distributed, the pain created by the collapse of the bubbles won’t be evenly distributed, either. We’ve reached an interesting juncture in history, and I don’t mean the pandemic. I’m referring to the normalization of extremes in the economy, in social decay and in political dysfunction and polarization. Let’s ask a very simple question. The S&P 500 stock index went up five-fold from its 2009 low...