Tag Archives: 5) Global Macro

The virus news stream remains negative; pressure on the dollar has resumed The US economy is taking a step back just as Q3 is about to get under way; there are some minor US data reports today UK Labour leader Starmer overtook Prime Minister Johnson in the latest opinion poll; Macron’s party did poorly in French local elections French and German leaders meet to discuss the planned EU pandemic rescue package; UK and EU begin their “intensified timetable” for Brexit...

Risk assets came under pressure last week as the virus news stream worsened. It’s clear that large parts of the US will be forced to delay reopening until their virus numbers improve. Markets had gotten too bullish on the US recovery story and so this reality check soured sentiment. This is a very important week for US data, and we think risk sentiment will remain under pressure ahead of what we think will be a likely downside surprise in the US jobs number Thursday....

The only realistic Plan B is a fundamental, permanent re-ordering of the cost structure of the entire U.S. economy. The fantasy of a V-shaped recovery has evaporated, and expectations for a W or L-shaped recovery are increasingly untenable. So forget V, W and L; the letters that will shape the future are N, P, B: there is No Plan B. All the hopes for a recovery were based on a quick return to the economy that existed in late 2019. All the bailouts and stimulus...

There’s never a good time for a trade war. Yet here we are on the cusp of one between the US and the EU over unfair aircraft subsidies and comes at a time when renewed COVID-19 outbreaks are making the global economic outlook even cloudier. These developments suggest some caution ahead is warranted for risk assets like EM and equities. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS Back in April, the WTO set forth two distinct pandemic scenarios for world trade. The “relatively optimistic”...

Higher infection numbers in the US and other countries continue to fuel risk aversion across global markets; the IMF released more pessimistic global growth forecasts yesterday The US has rekindled trade provocations against China through Huawei; weekly jobless claims will be reported; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for June will continue to roll out Fitch cut Canada’s rating by a notch to AA+ with stable outlook; Mexico is expected to cut rates 50 bp to 5.0%;...

In the false religion of data, heresy is asking for data that is not being collected because it might reveal unpalatably unprofitable realities. Here’s how every modern con starts: let’s look at the data. Every modern con starts with an earnest appeal to look at the data because the con artist has assembled the data to grease the slides of the con. We have been indoctrinated into a new and false religion, the faith of data. We’ve been relentlessly indoctrinated with...

Risk-off sentiment has picked up from reports that the US will impose new tariffs against the EU; there’s also been a messy set of headlines regarding the virus contagion outlook in the US The IMF will release updated global growth forecasts today; the dollar is benefiting from risk-off sentiment; another round of fiscal stimulus in the US is in the works Brazil announced a slew of new easing measures to improve liquidity conditions in local credit markets; Mexico...

By Dara O’Sullivan, Derrick Leonard, and Ilan Solot There were minimal changes to the status quo as the week commences. Bangladesh has announced revised trading hours on the local exchanges. No change of status in Nigeria and Kenya as they both continue to face limited liquidity. Please see trading comments below. Bangladesh: Effective June 18, the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) revised their trading hours until further notice. The...

The last shred of power the elites hold is the belief of the masses that the elites are still in control. I understand the natural desire to believe somebody’s in charge: whether it’s the Deep State, the Chinese Communist Party, the Kremlin or Agenda 21 globalists, we’re primed to believe somebody somewhere is controlling events or pursuing agendas that drive global responses to events. I submit whatever control we discern is illusory, as the dynamics unleashed by...

There are some indexing events this week that could add to market volatility; the IMF will release updated global growth forecasts Wednesday The regional Fed manufacturing surveys for June will continue to roll out; Fed speaking engagements are somewhat limited this week Eurozone reports preliminary June PMI readings Tuesday; ECB releases its account of the June meeting Thursday All quiet on the Brexit front; UK reports preliminary June PMI readings Tuesday Japan...