Tag Archives: 5) Global Macro

Regardless of who holds the office, America’s Imperial Project and its Imperial Presidency are due for a grand reckoning. While elections and party politics generate the emotions and headlines, the truly consequential change in American governance has been the ascendancy of the Imperial Presidency over the past 75 years, since the end of World War II. As commander-in-chief of the armed forces, the Constitution grants the President extraordinary but temporary powers...

The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Thursday afternoon. While no policy changes are expected, we highlight what the Fed may or may not do. We expect a dovish hold, with Powell underscoring the growing downside risks facing the US economy in Q4. While we are confident about our call for this meeting, the medium-term outlook will remain highly uncertain until we get a firm result from the US elections and a better grasp of how the pandemic will impact...

Oil prices continue their rapid decline due to both supply and demand concerns; the dollar is trading at the top end of recent trading ranges This is one of the most eventful weeks for the markets in recent memory; one day ahead of the elections, the implied odds remain roughly at the same levels as they have been for the last few weeks; October ISM manufacturing PMI will start the ball rolling for a key US data week The outlook for the virus in Europe continues to...

Global equity markets are gaining limited traction today after yesterday’s bloodbath; that sell-off helped test a now prevalent hedging thesis for investors The dollar remains bid; US Q3 GDP data will be the data highlight; weekly jobless claims will be reported BOC delivered a dovish hold yesterday; Canada Finance Minister Freeland defended the government’s aggressive fiscal stimulus plans; Brazil left rates unchanged, as expected ECB is expected to deliver a...

What the political class and the Financial Nobility don’t yet grasp is that ALICE will never go back to her insecure, low-wage job, ever. Meet ALICE: Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed, at least she was employed until the pandemic presented impossible choices between taking care of her children and their education, and her aging parents, and keeping her demanding, low-wage job. Though it doesn’t fit in with the cute mythology of “capitalism” that...

For all these reasons, the risks of systemic collapse are much higher than commonly anticipated. There’s an irony in discussing risk: since we all have an instinctive reaction to visible risk, we think we understand it. But alas, we don’t, especially when the risk is invisible and systemic. We even misjudge extremely visible risk. People routinely die rushing to save someone who foolishly waded into fast-moving water a few yards above a waterfall. The rescue is...

The ECB meets Thursday and is widely expected to stand pat until the next meeting. Macro forecasts won’t be updated until the December 10 meeting, but the bank will have to acknowledge the deteriorating outlook now. There’s a small risk of more jawboning against the stronger euro, but it should otherwise be an uneventful meeting. We expect the ECB to increase QE in December but another rate cut seems very unlikely, as does activation of OMT. POSSIBLE NEXT STEPS...

Increasing virus numbers have pushed European governments to once again start imposing national measures; the week is starting off on a risk-off note Today may see the official end of stimulus talks; odds for Biden victory are increasing again but is already mostly priced in US manufacturing surveys for October will continue to roll out; Chile’s referendum on a new constitution passed in a landslide Brexit negotiations have been extended; Germany’s October IFO survey...

Don’t expect healthcare or any other hollowed-out, heavily optimized system to function as it once did. A great many Americans will be shocked when our healthcare systems start failing because they believed the PR that “we have the finest healthcare system in the world.” The ability to deliver the finest care to a few does not translate into an ability to deliver the finest care to the many, nor does it mean the system is robust enough to withstand a tsunami. As I...

EM FX took advantage once again of broad dollar weakness. Most EM currencies were up last week against the dollar, with the only exceptions being ARS, TRY, INR, THB, PEN, and MYR. We expect the dollar to remain under pressure this week and so EM should remain bid. However, the growing spread of the virus in Europe and the US supports our view that Asia is likely to continue outperforming. AMERICAS Chile held a referendum Sunday on whether to draft a new constitution....