Tag Archives: 5) Global Macro

Put another way: the elites have cannibalized the system so thoroughly that there’s nothing left to steal, exploit or cannibalize. The global elites’ techno-fantasy of a completely centralized future, The Great Reset, is addressed as a future project. Too bad it already happened in 2008-09. The lackeys and toadies tasked with spewing the PR are 12 years too late, and so are the critics listening to the PR with foreboding. Simply put, events outran our...

Pressure on the dollar has resumed; October CPI data will be the US highlight; US bond market was closed yesterday but yields have eased a bit today Weekly jobless claims data will be reported; monthly budget statement for October will hold some interest; Mexico is expected to cut rates 25 bp to 4.0%; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25% UK Q3 GDP rebounded strongly but September data show a loss of momentum; Brexit talks remain unresolved; the domestic...

In such a highly polarized, politicized environment, is such a scrupulously objective study even possible? Now that we’ve had the happy-talk about Pfizer’s messenger-RNA (mRNA) vaccine (and noted that Pfizer’s CEO sold the majority of his shares in the company immediately after the happy-talk), let’s dig into messenger-RNA (mRNA) vaccines which are fast approaching regulatory approval. Some people have concluded vaccines are not safe, regardless of their source or...

Despite rising infections worldwide, the virus news stream has turned positive; the dollar is consolidating its gains today With the 10-year yield rising to near 1.0%, US financial conditions are tightening; the Fed released its Financial Stability report yesterday and it pulled no punches; with the Fed media embargo over, many officials will speak today UK House of Lords altered the Internal Market Bill; UK employment numbers were slightly better than expected;...

The interplay of a vaccine-driven reflation rally and the (likely) split government in the US are emerging as the driving themes for markets in the months ahead.  We think reflation will win out in the end, but it could manifest itself differently this time around. While the policy-driven (fiscal and monetary) reflation theme from earlier in the year helped backstop the worst of the economic fallout, its reflationary impact was skewed towards asset price inflation....

Asset inflation benefits the super-rich more than anyone else because they own the vast majority of these assets. With the reflation euphoria running full blast, maybe central banks will finally get all that inflation they’ve been pining for. So let’s ask cui bono–who will benefit from inflation? The Super-Rich love inflation and the money-printing that generates it. Longtime correspondent Michael M. explains the dynamic behind billionaires’ adoration of...

So enjoy the GBOAT (greatest bubble of all time) but watch the clock. Sports fans debate who qualifies as GOAT–the greatest of all time: in hoops, Kobe, Jordan, Kareem, Magic; in boxing, Ali, and so forth. What we have today is GBOAT–the greatest bubble of all time That it’s GOAT is beyond doubt, as the charts below reveal. Bubbles have a few unique characteristics which cannot be captured by financial metrics. The most important such characteristic is that...

The core dynamic is ultimately the loss of social cohesion within the ruling elites and in the social order at large. There’s a definite end of days feeling to the euphoria that the world didn’t end on November 3. And what better way to celebrate the victory of what passes for normalcy with a manic stock market rally? It’s as if everyone knows there is no returning to the good old days of a well-oiled Imperial machine chewing through any and all obstacles, and this...

Markets likely facing an extended period of uncertainty; the dollar is seeing some safe haven bid but is well off its highs Despite President Trump’s claim of victory and his call to halt vote counting and go to the Supreme Court, it’s important to emphasize that the election is simply not over yet; asset prices are sending a cacophony of signals as investors struggle to price multiple possibilities The two day FOMC meeting starts today and concludes with a likely...

We’re Number One in wealth, income and power inequality, yea for the Fed and the Empire! If we avert our eyes from the electoral battle on the blood-soaked sand of the Coliseum and look behind the screen, we find the powers that matter are not elected: our owned by a few big banks Federal Reserve, run by a handful of technocrats, and the immense National Security State, a.k.a. the Permanent Government. These entities operate the Empire which hosts the electoral...