Tag Archives: 4.) Marc to Market

Overview: The jump in prices paid in yesterday's US ISM manufacturing coupled with the stronger eurozone inflation, with a new cyclical high reported in the core rate, underscores the market theme of higher-for-longer. This is seen as dollar supportive but also negative for risk-assets, including and especially equities. European benchmark 10-year yields are up another couple of basis points today and the 10-year US Treasury yield is pushing above 4% for the first...

Price pressures remain elevated, and labor markets are strong, giving most policymakers in the G10 the incentive to continue raising interest interests. There are two exceptions: Japan, the only country still with a negative policy rate (-0.10%), and Canada, where the central bank has indicated it would pause. While half-point hikes or larger were common in the second half of last year, the major central banks have slowed or will slow the pace to quarter-point moves...

Overview: Many investors may be skeptical of the accuracy of Chinese data, but its stronger than expected February PMI animated the animal spirits and bolstered risk-taking appetites. Asia Pacific equities jumped, led by the 4.2% rally in Hong Kong and a 5% surge in the index that tracks mainland shares. Among the long bourses Australia and Singapore slipped, and South Korean markets were closed for a national holiday. Europe's Stoxx 600 is posting a small gain and...

A key issue facing businesses and investors is whether the US January data reflects a reacceleration of the world's largest economy or whether it was mostly a payback for extremely poor November and December 2022 data and seasonal adjustments and methodological distortions. Given the centrality of the US economy and rates, it is not simply a question for America, the Federal Reserve, and investors, but the implications are much broader. The issue is unlikely to be...

Overview:  Rising rates and falling stocks provided the backdrop for the foreign exchange market this week. The dollar appreciated against all the G10 currencies but the Swedish krona, which is still correcting higher after the hawkish pivot by the central bank. The market looks for a later and higher peak in the Fed funds rate. This coupled with the risk-off sentiment helped the dollar extend its recovery after falling since last September-October. The yen's...

Overview:  The prospect that the Federal Reserve tightening cycle continues into early Q3 is underpinning the greenback today against most of the G10 currencies. The dollar bloc is the notable exception, and they are posting minor gains, perhaps encouraged by the firmer equity markets. The minutes of this month’s FOMC meeting appear to show wide support for quarter point hikes going forward and there did not seem to be much discussion of the conditions that would...

Overview: The surge in US interest rates and sharp losses in US stocks sent the dollar broadly higher in North America yesterday. The $42 bln of two-year notes auctioned by the US Treasury saw the highest yield in more than a quarter-of-a-century (4.67%) and it still produced a small tail. Sterling, helped by its own surprisingly strong data, was the only G10 currency to have gained against the surging dollar. Still, no important technical levels were breached,...

Overview: Rising interest rates are weighing on risk appetites and the dollar is broadly stronger. Sterling is a notable exception after a stronger than expected flash PMI and better than expected public finances. The correlation between higher US rates and a weaker yen is increasing and the greenback looks poised to rechallenge the JPY135 area. A slightly better than expected preliminary PMI and hawkish minutes from the recent RBA meeting has done little to support...

The dollar is mostly softer, but turnover is mostly quiet.  The Swedish krona leads the move after higher-than-expected underlying inflation.  It is a mild risk-on day with equities moving higher too.  In the Asia Pacific region, China stood with the CSI 300 up almost 2.5%.  Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up fractionally to recoup most of the pre-weekend decline.  US equity futures are narrowly mixed.  European bond yields are little changed, with a couple of exceptions: ...

The pendulum of market sentiment swung from fear of a synchronized recession in the US and Europe to optimism that a recession can be avoid. The perceived reduction of downside risks had driven the upside performance of equities and bonds. Just as the data seems to confirm it, the rally in in stocks and bonds faltered. The MSCI Emerging Markets equity index gained 7.8% last month but is off almost 3.8% this month, and has fallen for three consecutive weeks. The...